Where we were in 2016. Easiest trade deal in history, free trade zone from Iceland to Russia, we will get a better than than as a member, we won’t leave until a new deal is in place.
Where we are in 2020 from the BBC...
‘Barnier was ‘in good spirits’ when reported back to EU ambassadors this morning on state of play in negotiations ongoing in London BUT that he has ‘reached the edges of his mandate’ and has little more room for manoeuvre in talks with U.K. “Only millimetres left”
Of course you’d expect the EU side to say this. But there is a deeply-held belief here that U.K. must now move considerably on 3 STILL OUTSTANDING issues: fish, competition rules, governance- in order for there to be a deal this year
EU countries jumpy about concessions being made to U.K. “This is the painful part” said one EU ambassador BUT I don’t detect mistrust in Barnier and team in my conversations.NB Barnier didn’t ask EU countries for more flexibility in negotiating mandate this morning.
“If he had done, our answer would be clear” EU diplomat told me (ie No). Eu countries impatient with European Commission refusing to publish more details on no deal contingency plans eg on transport, air traffic and aviation security. Commission resisting as don’t want to give U.K. government the impression it can get ‘mini deals’ for free - without signing up to agreed compromises and overall treaty. After months of circular negotiations on key issues, EU attention is now re-focused on Brexit.
“Deal can be done this month .. or next, or next year” said one EU source. But of course it wouldnt be comfortable in the meantime for either side (customs queues, no police and judicial cooperation agreement etc ) and ‘bad blood’ could delay/influence EU decisions outside these trade talks eg on financial services and data exchange regulations, pet travel and access to medical care in the EU for U.K. citizens.’