Another new Brexit thread

[west didsblue]

UK manufacturing output is but a drop in the ice buckets of our financial empire benefactors in London.

"In the UK, manufacturing makes up 11% of GVA, 44% of total UK exports, 70% of business R&D, and directly employs 2.6 million people."
That's a fairly big drop in those ice buckets.

 

[Ban-jani]

I'm absolutely baffled as to how people rage against Tory austerity measures and yet wave away handing over £150m a week to the EU.

ffs £150m per week!!

Because we make money through trade on our membership.

Look at it as paying an entrance fee to a trading market that you’re going to make a profit from by the time you leave every evening.

Literally everything all in, we are +4% GDP from our membership.

Seriously, we’re 3 years on and this is a very basic aspect of our membership that still isn’t registering with people.

 

[Chris in London]

Works both ways that one insofar as there are some Remainers out there who have pigeon-holed all Leavers into one single bloc of people and that they're all thick racist cunts

You can scoff at the "will of the 52%" all you like, but the ballot paper had only 2 choices on it and 52% of those who voted ticked the Leave box. So yes, it does make them a single bloc of people in that sense but obviously that doesn't mean they all share exactly the same view as to how we should go about it.

And therein lies the problem. Suppose that say two thirds of that block want no deal and a third would sooner remain than go no deal. You have a situation where 'the will of the people' is actually the will of either no more than about a third of the people who actually voted in the referendum (to say nothing of the rest) and possibly is only a sixth of that electorate.

That is why IMO the only solution that would even begin to heal the divisions in our country would be a multiple option referendum, decided on the basis of a single transferable vote. That way everybody can indicate what their first preference is, but since we know that no single option commands a majority we find out what most people could live with even if they don't regard it as ideal.

 

[flyer]

Because we make money through trade on our membership.

Look at it as paying an entrance fee to a trading market that you’re going to make a profit from by the time you leave every evening.

Literally everything all in, we are +4% GDP from our membership.

Seriously, we’re 3 years on and this is a very basic aspect of our membership that still isn’t registering with people.

Yes but how much of that +4% GDP will we actually lose and how much can we gain from other trade deals

 

[Chris in London]

That's just bollocks

Fixed

 

[Ban-jani]

Yes but how much of that +4% GDP will we actually lose and how much can we gain from other trade deals

That’s all in, that’s net profit of our membership, including all fees we pay to the EU and we trade through the EU with countries around the world already.

No form of Brexit will make up for what we’ll lose if we do leave.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

ahh but can he grow taters, cause serious harm to a ringwraith, accompany his master up a live volcano to dispose of the ring of power, fight off a giant spider and all of the time stay cheerfully rustic? I verrrrry much doubt it George.

Would that get a deal through parliament?

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Leavers and Remainers are probably homogeneous groups in as many respects as not but it seems coprophiliacs are more heavily represented in their surrogates on here.

That's easy for you to say.

 

[bluejon]

Because we make money through trade on our membership.

Look at it as paying an entrance fee to a trading market that you’re going to make a profit from by the time you leave every evening.

Literally everything all in, we are +4% GDP from our membership.

Seriously, we’re 3 years on and this is a very basic aspect of our membership that still isn’t registering with people.

People moaning about the money we pay to the EU each month in is a bit like thinking it's stupid to just give city your money for your season ticket each month, and only focusing on the direct debit. Yes, I could save that money if I sacked off my season ticket, but I wouldn't get to go to the football. Throwing figures around like £150mill a week means absolutely nothing as it gives no indication as to what we get for that money.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Would that get a deal through parliament?

Nah, bit left wing is Sam.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

What do you expect?

I’m a Nazi!

#metoo

 

[lancs blue]

Yes but how much of that +4% GDP will we actually lose and how much can we gain from other trade deals

Try the government's own economic modelling of the deal or no deal scenarios, where the least damaging predicted outcome was an overall drop of 1.4% in trade GDP, and that was based on an EFTA/EEA type of deal.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

 

[Rascal]

1,321 pages and countless other threads yet I think when Brexit is finally settled the real debate will begin and it will dwarf what has gone on so far. This is not going away and if you think the nation has been divided by the issue since 1974 then this debate will still be raging in 2060, thankfully I will be long fucking dead by then.

What comes out of leaving will be the debate, the electorate is already polarised and I expect it to become even more polarised although it may do so on a totally different axis. Will the nutjob Tory right take us down the Singaporean route of ultra Neo-liberalism or will it become the Socialist utopia longed for by the Left. That is what the new argument will be I am sure. Brexit unleashes the possibility of both outcomes as EU protections against both occurrences will become redundant. On the plus side the Lib Dems will be irrelevant and hopefully Farage is sent to live with the penguins on the South Sandwich Islands.

I am also hopeful that we finally get a new constitutional settlement and maybe a new voting system that will reflect life outside the EU. It might just help heal some of the division although the extremists on both Brexit wings will no doubt carry on with their endless point scoring and needless bickering, we will need to find new solutions for situations that will arise and only by consensus can they be agreed to everyone's satisfaction.

It has been a sad sad time for UK politics, Brexit has unleashed demons we as a nation really do not need and they have to be stamped out. We cannot ignore the rise of the far right and we cannot ignore that the countries of Europe are still allies and friends.

We have to leave and as much as I despise Johnson if he achieves it then I will give him credit for it, although never my vote. I hope he is then unseated at the next election and slips into the annals of history as being one of the biggest cunts to ever grace Parliament.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Try the government's own economic modelling of the deal or no deal scenarios, where the least damaging predicted outcome was an overall drop of 1.4% in trade GDP, and that was based on an EFTA/EEA type of deal.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis__1_.pdf

This is why the bus lie was so influential. How on earth are we in a situation where people STILL do not understand such a simple and fundamental point?

There's so much information and misinformation out there that many ordinary people cannot, or will not, differentiate any more. Whilst it would take about 2 minutes on Google to find out this simple fact, many people are relying on soundbites or facebook posts instead.

 

[bluejon]

This is why the bus lie was so influential. How on earth are we in a situation where people STILL do not understand such a simple and fundamental point?

There's so much information and misinformation out there that many ordinary people cannot, or will not, differentiate any more. Whilst it would take about 2 minutes on Google to find out this simple fact, many people are relying on soundbites or facebook posts instead.

Because facebook posts give them easy 'proof' to use when arguing with equally clueless social media users as opposed to studying the actual figures on the basis that those figures might end up proving their supposedly well informed opinion is about as valid as Phil Jones's entry for Miss Universe.

 

[Blue Hefner]

This is why the bus lie was so influential. How on earth are we in a situation where people STILL do not understand such a simple and fundamental point?

There's so much information and misinformation out there that many ordinary people cannot, or will not, differentiate any more. Whilst it would take about 2 minutes on Google to find out this simple fact, many people are relying on soundbites or facebook posts instead.

Because it’s easy to be wrong. But besides that, in their own little echo chamber they think they are correct

There was a bloke on the radio yesterday having a go at the man in the hospital who was having a go at Johnson - this bloke ticked off every single false accusation I.e he was a plant, he had a microphone etc - it was explained how and why he was wrong. The bloke didn’t say ‘oh, sorry. And thanks for putting me right’. He hung up and probably still thinks he’s right today

It the good old days* if you were wrong and someone put you right you accepted it and moved on. Now people get labelled as a ‘liberal’ or accused of having some sort of hidden agenda. Strange times

*”that’s the thing about the old days, they the old days” Slim, The Wire

 

[west didsblue]

Yes but how much of that +4% GDP will we actually lose and how much can we gain from other trade deals

We would lose all the trade deals that the EU currently has with the rest of the world, which is with over 60 countries. We have continuity arrangements with about 20 of them which makes up about 1% of our trade in total. So trade with the other 40 plus the 27 EU countries will have additional hurdles to overcome, which would undoubtedly negatively impact trade. The chances of replacing that access with equivalent access to other countries in the world range from about zero to not very much above zero. Any deals we subsequently do with the 40 + 27 countries can not be on more favourable terms than what we already have with the EU so even if we manage to re-establish agreements with all of those we will be worse off. This leave the rest of the world, of which the US, China and India are the three biggest countries with which we can negotiate deals. There is absolutely no chance that we can get a better deal with them that what we would get as EU members as we would be negotiating from a position of desperation and would have to pay a huge price for the access we require to replace the current arrangements with all the countries that we currently have deals with.

 

[hgblue]

Because it’s easy to be wrong. But besides that, in their own little echo chamber they think they are correct

There was a bloke on the radio yesterday having a go at the man in the hospital who was having a go at Johnson - this bloke ticked off every single false accusation I.e he was a plant, he had a microphone etc - it was explained how and why he was wrong. The bloke didn’t say ‘oh, sorry. And thanks for putting me right’. He hung up and probably still thinks he’s right today

It the good old days* if you were wrong and someone put you right you accepted it and moved on. Now people get labelled as a ‘liberal’ or accused of having some sort of hidden agenda. Strange times

*”that’s the thing about the old days, they the old days” Slim, The Wire

If we leave with a free trade deal and the predicted doom and gloom doesn't happen, will you be on here apologising to everyone who's intelligence you've been questioning for 3 years?

 

[west didsblue]

If we leave with a free trade deal and the predicted doom and gloom doesn't happen, will you be on here apologising to everyone who's intelligence you've been questioning for 3 years?

We won't be leaving with a free trade deal as we're not even talking about it yet. At best we'll be leaving with a withdrawal agreement that effectively keeps us in the single market and customs union for a few years of transition while a free trade agreement is negotiated to replace the existing arrangements. That will cost us £39bn up front.

 

[blueparrot]

If we leave with a free trade deal and the predicted doom and gloom doesn't happen, will you be on here apologising to everyone who's intelligence you've been questioning for 3 years?

If we get a free trade deal it will be a CU and SM, so will involve some FOM and EU regulation. Fine by me but what chance Johnson trying to sell that.