Another new Brexit thread

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Vic said:
I think most people don't want to "get on with Brexit". They want not to hear about it. Leaving means hearing about it for months and years to come as we try and fail to get new deals. Remaining would mean a lot of loud complaining but we could quickly move on back to normality.

Anyone thinking Leaving would "end uncertainty" (for industry, for farming etc) is deluded, with Tory infighting (and Farage sniping) over possibly not getting a FTA and some "clean break" idiots lobbying for No Deal. Investment will still stall without knowing how that internal Tory battle will end.
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Your second sentence is correct I think. But how do we make it go away? Taking several more months to negotiate another deal (not that negotiating a better deal is even possible of course) and then taking several more months to hold a second referendum (which Leave might win - I doubt it but they might), does not make it go away. Even if Remain win the second referendum, this doesn't go away.

The only thing that makes it go away is getting it done. And then we can all move on. And this can happen next year if Boris wins the GE. Of course it doesn't suit the iikes of Bob to accept that we could leave with a FTA in 12 months, but the reality is we can. We already have fegulatory alignment on *everything* - which is a starting point enjoyed by no previous state when starting FTA negotiations with the EU. And we also have an EU signed up (or about to sign up) to a process delivering such an agreement in this timescale. If someone wants this to "go away" then patently this is the most practical route to achieving it. It's for me obviously the best route forward at this point.
 
Chippy_boy said:
The only thing that makes it go away is getting it done. And then we can all move on. And this can happen next year if Boris wins the GE. Of course it doesn't suit the iikes of Bob to accept that we could leave with a FTA in 12 months, but the reality is we can. We already have fegulatory alignment on *everything* - which is a starting point enjoyed by no previous state when starting FTA negotiations with the EU. And we also have an EU signed up (or about to sign up) to a process delivering such an agreement in this timescale. If someone wants this to "go away" then patently this is the most practical route to achieving it. It's for me obviously the best route forward at this point.
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One small error in your thinking.
You state we already have 'fegulatory' (sic) alignment on everything and make this out to be an advantage.
In fact this could prove to be a disadvantage as we are seeking to diverge from EU regulations whereas other countries either joining the EU or entering into a looser FTA are looking to converge.
Such a negotiation has never been carried out before by the EU and will of course raise all the questions of trade offs and compromises depending on the closeness or divergence with EU regs and laws.
Such a deal may not be agreed by end 2020, in which case it is an extension of the transition phase or no deal.
Thank you.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I pop back on here every so often but nothing much changes.
Still the same people in denial about the referendum result,
Still the same people belittling the choice of others they disagree with,
Still the same people oblivious to themselves exhibiting the borderline racism they so decry in others!
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Don't come on then.
Merry Xmas
 
Len Rum said:
Such a deal may not be agreed by end 2020, in which case it is an extension of the transition phase or no deal.
Thank you.
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Equally, it may be. Whereas putting Corbyn in No 10 guarantees the Brexit argument carrying on for years and years.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
Gammon score = Infinity
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1539902104723.gif
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I pop back on here every so often but nothing much changes.
Still the same people in denial about the referendum result,
Still the same people belittling the choice of others they disagree with,
Still the same people oblivious to themselves exhibiting the borderline racism they so decry in others!

I have never had a issue with people being remainers, indeed many of my friends are, the difference is they just dont have that nasty mentality that so many have on here.

I often listen to LBC these days. I like the partiality some of the presenters exhibit. I find Eddie Mair quite balanced out of all of them. What is also very obvious is the way James O'Brien derides anyone who he disagrees with over brexit, to the point of being extremely rude nearly every time. I guess he has a lot of fans on here from the mob remainers.

I hope people get a few mirrors at Christmas, a good look in the mirror might do a few some good.

Ho Hum
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You do well to limit your visits - proper Groundhog days - and James O'brien is in fact the messiah don't you know?
 
Ancient Citizen said:
What, exactly, is a 'Hard' Brexit? The agreed WA involves leaving the customs union and single market, which was
what we were told, ad nauseum, that's what would happen, everyone knew it, because these are the basic tenets of the EU,
so if we vote to leave, we, quite obviously, leave these two.
It's only the losers of the referendum that coin this term, it's a ridiculous term that means nothing at all, other than leaving
the EU.
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You keep telling yourself that. We all know there were two sides to the leave campaign and when it was pointed out that they were completely incompatible you all shouted 'project fear'. You know very well that if we leave the EU and CU without a very similar alternative arrangement it will be massively damaging to our economy. You know it.

Len Rum said:
One small error in your thinking.
You state we already have 'fegulatory' (sic) alignment on everything and make this out to be an advantage.
In fact this could prove to be a disadvantage as we are seeking to diverge from EU regulations whereas other countries either joining the EU or entering into a looser FTA are looking to converge.
Such a negotiation has never been carried out before by the EU and will of course raise all the questions of trade offs and compromises depending on the closeness or divergence with EU regs and laws.
Such a deal may not be agreed by end 2020, in which case it is an extension of the transition phase or no deal.
Thank you.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. The fact we are currently compliant has very little bearing on this. We want to become non compliant and that means agreeing exactly how that will work across every sector and what the implications will be / how they are managed. You can only do that by going through everything and agreeing what will remain aligned and what will not and what happens when things change. And the big factor that no one is talking about is the cost - the EU will expect us to pay in to cover the cost of some of the EU mechanisms we still want to be part of. How much do they want and what position are we in to say no (our negotiating hand is so weak it is almost non existent). What will the ERG types do when BoJo comes back with a deal that involves us paying over millions every year to the EU?

No chance this will be done in any satisfactory way in 12 months.
 
Chippy_boy said:
...

The only thing that makes it go away is getting it done. And then we can all move on. And this can happen next year if Boris wins the GE. Of course it doesn't suit the iikes of Bob to accept that we could leave with a FTA in 12 months, but the reality is we can. We already have fegulatory alignment on *everything* - which is a starting point enjoyed by no previous state when starting FTA negotiations with the EU. And we also have an EU signed up (or about to sign up) to a process delivering such an agreement in this timescale. If someone wants this to "go away" then patently this is the most practical route to achieving it. It's for me obviously the best route forward at this point.
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You mean apart from those times I have said the only way you get a future trade deal done in 11 months is sign up for a deal that leaves us with pretty much what we have now, ie fully aligned? Or as I like to call it de facto membership.

The EU are currently making encouraging noises that this is the way to go. The EU trade commissioner Hogan said last night that UK consumers will expect the UK to sign up to the EU’s labour, environmental and food standards as part of a free trade agreement. What Hogan didn’t comment on was that current alignment is underwritten by ECJ which is politically toxic to Tories and Brexiteers so question is do we accept the writ of the ECJ as before or do we construct a new legal framework? Secondly you overlook that alignment is not what the Tories are after and yes I know you think Johnson is lying and yes he definitely is lying to someone but coaxing people down from the ‘Global Britain Empire 2.0’ ledge is going to take time and a lot will depend on what the Tory manifesto says.

The fight over the legal basis alone will take time and then you have to decide which sectors you want to keep fully aligned and if any will be hived off or just kept partly aligned and that will involve discussions and consultations with the industry sectors themselves and we still haven’t even discussed NTB and our service industries which brings us to mutual recognition of qualifications and the tricky issue of ‘the movement of people’ across borders to facilitate the providing of those services.

And last but not least is the NI question and just how long does it take to set out, create and implement new custom protocols in NI? Does Dublin have a role? Is the legal basis underpinning the new protocols the ECJ? Do NI get to keep its MEP’s? And how hostile will Unionists be to this process?

Lots to sort out in 11 months.
 
Gaudion M said:
You keep telling yourself that. We all know there were two sides to the leave campaign and when it was pointed out that they were completely incompatible you all shouted 'project fear'. You know very well that if we leave the EU and CU without a very similar alternative arrangement it will be massively damaging to our economy. You know it.
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I'm telling myself nothing, I'm telling you that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market and customs union,
there would have been no point whatsoever having a referendum if it were predicated on the ludicrous proviso
that we won't. It would be like saying that whoever wins the forthcoming GE with a majority, won't necessarily be forming
the government. 'Hard Brexit' is a remainer concept dreamt up after the event.
 
Ancient Citizen said:
I'm telling myself nothing, I'm telling you that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market and customs union,
there would have been no point whatsoever having a referendum if it were predicated on the ludicrous proviso
that we won't. It would be like saying that whoever wins the forthcoming GE with a majority, won't necessarily be forming
the government. 'Hard Brexit' is a remainer concept dreamt up after the event.
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This.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Equally, it may be. Whereas putting Corbyn in No 10 guarantees the Brexit argument carrying on for years and years.
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You've completely ignored the issues I mentioned regarding the degree of divergence/convergence with EU regs and the resultant compromises that may be required.
Other more eloquent posters than myself @BobKowalski and @Gaudion M have subsequently raised this topic and you may wish to address these issues.
Alternatively stop parroting the official Tory party line.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Your second sentence is correct I think. But how do we make it go away? Taking several more months to negotiate another deal (not that negotiating a better deal is even possible of course) and then taking several more months to hold a second referendum (which Leave might win - I doubt it but they might), does not make it go away. Even if Remain win the second referendum, this doesn't go away.

The only thing that makes it go away is getting it done. And then we can all move on. And this can happen next year if Boris wins the GE. Of course it doesn't suit the iikes of Bob to accept that we could leave with a FTA in 12 months, but the reality is we can. We already have fegulatory alignment on *everything* - which is a starting point enjoyed by no previous state when starting FTA negotiations with the EU. And we also have an EU signed up (or about to sign up) to a process delivering such an agreement in this timescale. If someone wants this to "go away" then patently this is the most practical route to achieving it. It's for me obviously the best route forward at this point.
Click to expand...

And just to expand on NI, and indeed the UK’s place as a whole within the EU economic sphere, how are we going to react or deal with new EU institutions such as EPPO and their oversight/jurisdiction over handling of VAT transactions under the new and yet to be devised custom protocols in NI?

https://ec.europa.eu/anti-fraud/policy/european_public_prosecutor_en
 
Len Rum said:
You've completely ignored the issues I mentioned regarding the degree of divergence/convergence with EU regs and the resultant compromises that may be required.
Other more eloquent posters than myself @BobKowalski and @Gaudion M have subsequently raised this topic and you may wish to address these issues.
Alternatively stop parroting the official Tory party line.
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1. I don't take instructions from anyone other than mods, and certainly not from you.
2. You said "Such a deal may not be agreed by end 2020". You did not say "Such a deal categorically cannot be agreed by end 2020". My response was entirely appropriate to your post.
 
Ancient Citizen said:
I'm telling myself nothing, I'm telling you that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market and customs union,
there would have been no point whatsoever having a referendum if it were predicated on the ludicrous proviso
that we won't. It would be like saying that whoever wins the forthcoming GE with a majority, won't necessarily be forming
the government. 'Hard Brexit' is a remainer concept dreamt up after the event.
Click to expand...

Do you still believe that the day after we leave we will hold all the cards?

Brexit is a disaster, a slow moving disaster - clear as day. You are in denial.
 
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Gaudion M said:
Do you still believe that the day after we leave we will hold all the cards?

Brexit is a disaster, a slow moving disaster - clear as day. You are in denial.
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To be fair mate I think a lot of Remainers are in denial about a lot of things. For a start, in denial about the public mandate that we must leave, after which all subsequent argument is rendered irrelevant.

But putting that to one side, many of you are in denial about the fact that it is possible to leave the EU in an orderly fashion in a reasonable timescale. You are in denial about the fact that Johnson's motives may very well be to negotiate a good deal for the UK and not throw the UK into no-deal turmoil. And you are in denial about just what little impact WTO terms would have on most people. Some goods might be a little more expensive, others cheaper. Exporting businesses may be adversely impacted, but the pound would likely fall, so that would help them. And the goverment would be free to offer support to exporters (and encouragements to stay in the UK) without be blocked from doing so by the EU.

You are also in denial about the strength of the UK negotiating postion. They categorically do not want a dynamic, deregulated, low tax economy like SIngapore, 26 miles off the coast of France.
 
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