Another new Brexit thread

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blueparrot said:
Why would he go for anything other than the softest Brexit he can get away with. He wants, and to be fair, has always wanted a FTA with the EU while being able to trade with other blocks that and some form of restiction on FOM are about all he wanted. He will know full well he will need to make compromises the ERG won't like, as he's never really liked the ERG , he won't mind stabbing them in the back, because now he can.
If you go back to before the referendum you'll remember he wrote 2 peices one for staying one for leaving and took a while to decide, he's nowhere near as hardline as Rees Mogg ETC.
That's me speaking as someone that doesn't trust or like Johnson and would never vote for him, but if he was going to win a big majority is better than pandering to the ERG.
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I agree with your analysis. I said weeks ago that I think he will shaft the ERG, but of course I don't know whether he will and we will see.

What I think some people failed to realise is that John had to tread a REALLY delicate path since his election as leader. Previously all efforts to find a parliamentary majority for any kind of Brexit had failed, and the only way he could break that deadlock was to very carefully pitch to all of the factions, just enough of what they wanted to hear in order for them to reluctantly back him. That he achieved this and got approval for his WA, was no mean feat. He *had* to sell a hard Brexit possibility - likelihood even - to the likes of Francois and JRM, or they simply would not have voted for it. That does not believe he himself wants it.

All of the Labour commentary, post-defeat, has been about this big majority now meaning we are heading for a hard Brexit. I don't know whether they actually believe that or whether it's simply that they have not thought through the dynamics above. Of course it is possible they are right anyway. It's possible Boris will now pursue a hard Brexit since that's what he's wanted all along, but personally I doubt that.
 
blueparrot said:
Why would he go for anything other than the softest Brexit he can get away with. He wants, and to be fair, has always wanted a FTA with the EU while being able to trade with other blocks that and some form of restiction on FOM are about all he wanted. He will know full well he will need to make compromises the ERG won't like, as he's never really liked the ERG , he won't mind stabbing them in the back, because now he can.
If you go back to before the referendum you'll remember he wrote 2 peices one for staying one for leaving and took a while to decide, he's nowhere near as hardline as Rees Mogg ETC.
That's me speaking as someone that doesn't trust or like Johnson and would never vote for him, but if he was going to win a big majority is better than pandering to the ERG.
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You are completely ignoring the conservative manifesto and pretty much everything he’s said over the last year. We will be leaving the single market, the customs union and will be after trade deals.

You are also ignoring the fact the tories have become much more of a pro brexit party. The remainers have basically been purged and most of the seats they’ve won in the north are from very heavy leave voting areas.

I think a lot of posters/ remainers like yourself are hoping for the softest brexit possible and are convincing yourselves that’s what’s going to happen
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
You are completely ignoring the conservative manifesto and pretty much everything he’s said over the last year. We will be leaving the single market, the customs union and will be after trade deals.

You are also ignoring the fact the tories have become much more of a pro brexit party. The remainers have basically been purged and most of the seats they’ve won in the north are from very heavy leave voting areas.

I think a lot of posters/ remainers like yourself are hoping for the softest brexit possible and are convincing yourselves that’s what’s going to happen
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Wait and see whose right, you are ignoring the fact he has made a lot of expensive promises, he needs a strong economy. I don't think anyone even the hardline Brexitters deny the harder the Brexit the harder the damage to the economy and the longer to see any benefit. Won't have to wait long to see the direction he takes he has given himself another cliff edge deadline so the softer the Brexit also the quicker he can get agreement.
 
blueparrot said:
Wait and see whose right, you are ignoring the fact he has made a lot of expensive promises, he needs a strong economy. I don't think anyone even the hardline Brexitters deny the harder the Brexit the harder the damage to the economy and the longer to see any benefit. Won't have to wait long to see the direction he takes he has given himself another cliff edge deadline so the softer the Brexit also the quicker he can get agreement.
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Fair enough. I said it before though the only people who want a soft brexit are remainers
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
Fair enough. I said it before though the only people who want a soft brexit are remainers
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Hard, soft and whatever other nick name they give are nothing but remainer constructs that they thought up post brexit in an attempt to try and get their way.

Everyone knew a vote to leave meant leaving the SM and the CU and the then PM also said it would mean trading under WTO but thats ignored as if it never happened now.
 
mcfc1632 said:
All the conditions are now in play for the UK - if Johnson is ambitious enough - to secure a bespoke deal that we are active in designing and the EU accepting - not the other way around

As you say - "….. with a big majority and the eurozone gradually sliding towards a recession..." are 2 factors that are in our favour and there are several others

Varhadkar said the right things - but his face showed the trepidation he must be feeling inside - gone was the smug look

Barnier is saying the obvious things - but being a top professional he will be involved in a host of preparatory meetings to establish the EU's negotiation outcomes and strategy - in the knowledge that he can no longer rely on Westminster to undermine the UK

It will all depend on who Johnson selects as the lead negotiators - surely he will not appoint some fuckwit like Robbins
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Which part of the WA is a UK designed bespoke deal that the EU were obliged to accept?

Varadkar got his main requirement. No land border in NI and we accepted the only possible alternative. A customs border down the Irish Sea.

The E27 have already agreed protocols for the second phase.

The EU is not as concerned about a no deal outcome at the end of 2020 as they were about a no deal outcome at the conclusion of A50 negotiations. The WA will still apply and there will be no land border in NI.

The first major issue will be fish and the second will be tariffs. Most fish is caught in Scottish waters and most U.K. fish sold to EU market. Tariffs will be a blow to the the U.K. fishing industry. The political situation in Scotland is an added complication. What is the likeliest outcome?
 
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blueparrot said:
Wait and see whose right, you are ignoring the fact he has made a lot of expensive promises, he needs a strong economy. I don't think anyone even the hardline Brexitters deny the harder the Brexit the harder the damage to the economy and the longer to see any benefit. Won't have to wait long to see the direction he takes he has given himself another cliff edge deadline so the softer the Brexit also the quicker he can get agreement.
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I've said much the same myself. He isn't going to want to do anything which makes him being remembered as the PM who broke the country. If he can get control of immigration and ability to strike new trade deals, i.e. no customs union membership, then personally I think everything else is on the table. So he'll concede agreeing to level playing field and regulatory alignment rules - the two things the EU are most keen upon - in return for the above. And he'll get it because he will be threatening no deal and walking away on December 31st 2020 unless they agree. The regulatory alignment bit will make US trade deals more difficult but not impossible and the likes of Francois, Farage and Rees Mogg will scream about it, but no-one else will give a toss.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I've said much the same myself. He isn't going to want to do anything which makes him being remembered as the PM who broke the country. If he can get control of immigration and ability to strike new trade deals, i.e. no customs union membership, then personally I think everything else is on the table. So he'll concede agreeing to level playing field and regulatory alignment rules - the two things the EU are most keen upon - in return for the above. And he'll get it because he will be threatening no deal and walking away on December 31st 2020 unless they agree. The regulatory alignment bit will make US trade deals more difficult but not impossible and the likes of Francois, Farage and Rees Mogg will scream about it, but no-one else will give a toss.
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Yes I know you have , I thought the result would be a lot closer and he would be ERG reliant still. The only bit I disagree with is I don't beleive without the ERG pressure he would walk away with no deal and the deadline he's given himself will help the EU . IMO he needs a strong economy to match his promises to risk a downturn for however long no deal in 12 months would bring.
 
blueinsa said:
Hard, soft and whatever other nick name they give are nothing but remainer constructs that they thought up post brexit in an attempt to try and get their way.

Everyone knew a vote to leave meant leaving the SM and the CU and the then PM also said it would mean trading under WTO but thats ignored as if it never happened now.
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Everyone didn’t know. Mainly because the Leave campaign said it wasn’t necessarily so. Leave campaign also said the future relationship would be negotiated prior to leaving. This didn’t happen either. In fairness it wasn’t through lack of trying but the EU insisted on sequencing talks to maximise leverage and we caved.

The WA itself is an agreement that guarantees continued membership of the SM and CU so clearly leave did not automatically mean leaving the SM and CU or trading under WTO terms.

Finally under the WA Northern Ireland retains membership of the SM for certain industrial and agricultural sectors and operates under the EU customs Union as well as our own.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I've said much the same myself. He isn't going to want to do anything which makes him being remembered as the PM who broke the country. If he can get control of immigration and ability to strike new trade deals, i.e. no customs union membership, then personally I think everything else is on the table. So he'll concede agreeing to level playing field and regulatory alignment rules - the two things the EU are most keen upon - in return for the above. And he'll get it because he will be threatening no deal and walking away on December 31st 2020 unless they agree. The regulatory alignment bit will make US trade deals more difficult but not impossible and the likes of Francois, Farage and Rees Mogg will scream about it, but no-one else will give a toss.
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That's pretty much the size of it and is the outcome what I feel most of the country is in favour of.
 
BobKowalski said:
Everyone didn’t know. Mainly because the Leave campaign said it wasn’t necessarily so. Leave campaign also said the future relationship would be negotiated prior to leaving. This didn’t happen either. In fairness it wasn’t through lack of trying but the EU insisted on sequencing talks to maximise leverage and we caved.

The WA itself is an agreement that guarantees continued membership of the SM and CU so clearly leave did not automatically mean leaving the SM and CU or trading under WTO terms.

Finally under the WA Northern Ireland retains membership of the SM for certain industrial and agricultural sectors and operates under the EU customs Union as well as our own.
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Yes they did, That is preciesly what the Remain Campaign Stronger IN, the celebluvvies, and our own Prime Minister David Cameron explicitly stated.

The Leave campaign was against the idea that leaving the EU means we can never ever trade with the EU, tarriff free if we leave. The leave campaigns message was about how we don't have to leave the Single Market permanently if we want to continue trading on the same terms, which isn't the same as leaving the Customs Union. We could negotiate single market access on current terms or on a new bespoke deal like Canada, and gave examples like Norway. It's like 2016 all over again, this...
 
BobKowalski said:
Which part of the WA is a UK designed bespoke deal that the EU were obliged to accept?

Varadkar got his main requirement. No land border in NI and we accepted the only possible alternative. A customs border down the Irish Sea.

The E27 have already agreed protocols for the second phase.

The EU is not as concerned about a no deal outcome at the end of 2020 as they were about a no deal outcome at the conclusion of A50 negotiations. The WA will still apply and there will be no land border in NI.

The first major issue will be fish and the second will be tariffs. Most fish is caught in Scottish waters and most U.K. fish sold to EU market. Tariffs will be a blow to the the U.K. fishing industry. The political situation in Scotland is an added complication. What is the likeliest outcome?
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You mis-read my post
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
Yes they did, That is preciesly what the Remain Campaign Stronger IN, the celebluvvies, and our own Prime Minister David Cameron explicitly stated.

The Leave campaign was against the idea that leaving the EU means we can never ever trade with the EU, tarriff free if we leave. The leave campaigns message was about how we don't have to leave the Single Market permanently if we want to continue trading on the same terms, which isn't the same as leaving the Customs Union. We could negotiate single market access on current terms or on a new bespoke deal like Canada, and gave examples like Norway. It's like 2016 all over again, this...
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Yes. The intention was, presumably, to scare the voters whereas Leave sought not to scare the voters by arguing that nothing would really change outside the EU. Clearly they neglected to point out that ‘nothing will change’ meant imposing an internal customs border within our own Union a decision that went from ‘something no British PM could ever contemplate’ to ‘let’s do it because we are out of options’ in a matter of months.

Nothing like standing firm on the trivial issue of sovereignty and constitutional principle.
 
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