Another new Brexit thread

[Ban-jani]

Your argument has echoes of the Remain argument in the EU referendum, vote to stay in a union you no longer support because a vote to leave will hurt you financially. Scots definitely care about the economy, but this vote when it comes will be an emotional one imo. I can certainly see the logic of the Scots going their own way rather than being a reluctant, resentful partner in a union they no longer support for purely financial reasons. This would probably be a good thing because if they keep electing the likes of Sturgeon and Blackford, whilst we’re electing the likes of Boris and Gove, we’re going to end up hating each other.

Actually, @mcfc1632 is absolutely spot on with his point on Scottish independence, Brexit killed it.

Them becoming independent of London was pretty straight forward but now it’s almost impossible without totally destroying themselves.

The main two problems are :

1) They’ll have to spend a significant time out of the UK and EU. The EU won’t even start their approval process to become a member until they’re on their own, this means several years of being outside both, which, to say it would be catastrophic, is an understatement. There’s also the chance the EU won’t let them in, due to debt and GDP or their relationship with the UK.

2) The border, there will need to be infrastructure on the border, this will be irreversible if they leave, due to MFN. We’ve managed to negotiate NI being in both unions for trade but we can’t for Scotland, due to point 1. above.

Even if a UK Prime Minister grants another vote, they won’t, they’ll continue to kick it down the can indefinitely, as none want to be remembered as the PM who lost the union, when the evidence presents itself they’ll vote no anyway.

 

[bluethrunthru]

And lose 40% - win?

 

[Vic]

And lose 40% - win?

A civil servant giving a private political briefing to one party's MPs? Is that normal?

We get 60% of our fish?
60% of a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border?
60% of pet passports (excluding French-speaking dogs)?

 

[bluethrunthru]

A civil servant giving a private political briefing to one party's MPs? Is that normal?

We get 60% of our fish?
60% of a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border?
60% of pet passports (excluding French-speaking dogs)?

The politicisation of the civil service by El Presidente Cummings................

 

[west didsblue]

Actually, @mcfc1632 is absolutely spot on with his point on Scottish independence, Brexit killed it.

Them becoming independent of London was pretty straight forward but now it’s almost impossible without totally destroying themselves.

The main two problems are :

1) They’ll have to spend a significant time out of the UK and EU. The EU won’t even start their approval process to become a member until they’re on their own, this means several years of being outside both, which, to say it would be catastrophic, is an understatement. There’s also the chance the EU won’t let them in, due to debt and GDP or their relationship with the UK.

2) The border, there will need to be infrastructure on the border, this will be irreversible if they leave, due to MFN. We’ve managed to negotiate NI being in both unions for trade but we can’t for Scotland, due to point 1. above.

Even if a UK Prime Minister grants another vote, they won’t, they’ll continue to kick it down the can indefinitely, as none want to be remembered as the PM who lost the union, when the evidence presents itself they’ll vote no anyway.

1) Doubt it. They will get an agreement in principle with the EU ahead of time imo.
2) There’s only 4 main roads that cross the England Scotland border with most traffic using 2 of them. Relatively straightforward to set something up compared to NI/ROI with its 310 mile border.

Every perfectly valid reason why it’s a really bad idea for Scotland to go independent was equally applicable to the UK leaving the EU. Didn’t stop us voting for it and I see no reason why the Scots won’t use emotion rather than economics like the UK did with Brexit. Especially with Johnson and the Westminster government treating them like they don’t have a choice. At some point they will have their say and the longer it looks like Westminster is blocking it, the more likely it is to happen eventually.

 

[west didsblue]

A civil servant giving a private political briefing to one party's MPs? Is that normal?

We get 60% of our fish?
60% of a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border?
60% of pet passports (excluding French-speaking dogs)?

I wonder if the LPF, Fish and ECJ are in the 40%?

 

[Ban-jani]

1) Doubt it. They will get an agreement in principle with the EU ahead of time imo.
2) There’s only 4 main roads that cross the England Scotland border with most traffic using 2 of them. Relatively straightforward to set something up compared to NI/ROI with its 310 mile border.

Every perfectly valid reason why it’s a really bad idea for Scotland to go independent was equally applicable to the UK leaving the EU. Didn’t stop us voting for it and I see no reason why the Scots won’t use emotion rather than economics like the UK did with Brexit. Especially with Johnson and the Westminster government treating them like they don’t have a choice. At some point they will have their say and the longer it looks like Westminster is blocking it, the more likely it is to happen eventually.

1) they really will not and can not do that. The EU will only speak with a independent sovereign nation and cannot debate with a member of another union that hasn’t left yet. It takes years to gain membership of the EU.

2) It’s still hard infrastructure on the island of Britain and trade will only be done via the terms agreed by Scotland with London and then whatever agreement London has with Brussels.

If you think the UK’s trade was too reliant on the EU, just wait to see what happens if the Scots leave. It makes Brexit look like a tea party.

Also, they have had a choice, they voted six years ago and the SNP called it once in a generation.

Having referendums on a nation defining issue every decade is utter madness and the SNP won’t stop until they’ve got independence. Even if we had another and they voted no, Sturgeon will only be waiting for the next excuse to have another.

 

[west didsblue]

1) they really will not and can not do that. The EU will only speak with a independent sovereign nation and cannot debate with a member of another union that hasn’t left yet. It takes years to gain membership of the EU.

2) It’s still hard infrastructure on the island of Britain and trade will only be done via the terms agreed by Scotland with London and then whatever agreement London has with Brussels.

If you think the UK’s trade was too reliant on the EU, just wait to see what happens if the Scots leave. It makes Brexit look like a tea party.

Also, they have had a choice, they voted six years ago and the SNP called it once in a generation.

Having referendums on a nation defining issue every decade is utter madness and the SNP won’t stop until they’ve got independence. Even if we had another and they voted no, Sturgeon will only be waiting for the next excuse to have another.

You don’t think the EU will make unofficial reassurances that a Scottish application would be looked upon favourably? Don’t forget that Scotland had been an EU member as part of the UK for 45 years and its population had voted to remain albeit as part of a UK wide poll. There may be no official discussions until after a SCEXIT but there’s no way that there won’t be any discussions at all.

Yes they voted 6 years ago, largely on the basis that a remain vote meant staying in the EU as well as the UK. It was a huge part of the remain campaign. Now that there’s been a material change to the circumstances they, not surprisingly, want another say.

Ironically the longer the Westminster government don’t allow it, the more likely there is to be a leave vote eventually due to the feeling that they are being ignored. Contrast that to the UK that made its own decision about an EU referendum. The Brexit argument about taking back control looks a bit churlish in this context when we are denying a member nation of our own union the same choice that we took as a united country following a change of circumstances since the last vote.

For this reason I strongly suspect that the SNP would rather not have an early vote because a later one will be more likely to win. Obviously they would never admit it but it seems logical to me.

 

[Ban-jani]

You don’t think the EU will make unofficial reassurances that a Scottish application would be looked upon favourably? Don’t forget that Scotland had been an EU member as part of the UK for 45 years and its population had voted to remain albeit as part of a UK wide poll. There may be no official discussions until after a SCEXIT but there’s no way that there won’t be any discussions at all.

Yes they voted 6 years ago, largely on the basis that a remain vote meant staying in the EU as well as the UK. It was a huge part of the remain campaign. Now that there’s been a material change to the circumstances they, not surprisingly, want another say.

Ironically the longer the Westminster government don’t allow it, the more likely there is to be a leave vote eventually due to the feeling that they are being ignored. Contrast that to the UK that made its own decision about an EU referendum. The Brexit argument about taking back control looks a bit churlish in this context when we are denying a member nation of our own union the same choice that we took as a united country following a change of circumstances since the last vote.

For this reason I strongly suspect that the SNP would rather not have an early vote because a later one will be more likely to win. Obviously they would never admit it but it seems logical to me.

No can they fuck.

They can not negotiate with a region of the UK and make any agreement, formal or informal, I’m fairly confident it would be against some sort of international law for them to do something so out of their own process.

Also, regardless of them doing an informal agreement, they can’t start the official process until the exact day Scotland has left the UK and even speeding it up, they will be out of both for a significant period of time.

I genuinely don’t think they would meet the criteria to join the EU. Their debt is already too high now and there’s no way they’d be able to leave the UK without taking on a significant proportion of the UK debt and that debt will absolutely sky rocket, should they go it alone for a period of time.

Yes but having a vote every single time something happens they don’t like is a bit ridiculous, they’ve not even waited to see what the Brexit agreement is before calling for another referendum and to have one before the UK has left is selfish beyond belief, if they want to go then wait until Brexit is over and the impacts have been felt, then put the plans in place.

Scotland will genuinely become the poorest nation in Europe if it happens and that’s not a threat, it’s the reality of being outside the UK EU.

You think that the EU have a stronger hand over the UK right now, imagine London over a totally independent Edinburgh.

 

[west didsblue]

No can they fuck.

They can not negotiate with a region of the UK and make any agreement, formal or informal, I’m fairly confident it would be against some sort of international law for them to do something so out of their own process.

Also, regardless of them doing an informal agreement, they can’t start the official process until the exact day Scotland has left the UK and even speeding it up, they will be out of both for a significant period of time.

I genuinely don’t think they would meet the criteria to join the EU. Their debt is already too high now and there’s no way they’d be able to leave the UK without taking on a significant proportion of the UK debt and that debt will absolutely sky rocket, should they go it alone for a period of time.

Yes but having a vote every single time something happens they don’t like is a bit ridiculous, they’ve not even waited to see what the Brexit agreement is before calling for another referendum and to have one before the UK has left is selfish beyond belief, if they want to go then wait until Brexit is over and the impacts have been felt, then put the plans in place.

Scotland will genuinely become the poorest nation in Europe if it happens and that’s not a threat, it’s the reality of being outside the UK EU.

You think that the EU have a stronger hand over the UK right now, imagine London over a totally independent Edinburgh.

If former Warsaw Pact and Soviet republics can meet the criteria I’m sure it wouldn’t take Scotland long bearing in mind its economy is already aligned with EU regulations. And poorest country in Europe? You’ve got to be having a laugh.

The one thing that will guarantee their departure above all else is the dismissive attitude of English people who like to remind them how dependent they are on England.

Don’t get me wrong though, Scotland’s departure from the UK would have hugely negative impact on theirs and our economies and it would be very sad if it happened, but like the Brexiteers keep telling us, it’s not all about the economy or we’d have never left the EU.

 

[BobKowalski]

If former Warsaw Pact and Soviet republics can meet the criteria I’m sure it wouldn’t take Scotland long bearing in mind its economy is already aligned with EU regulations. And poorest country in Europe? You’ve got to be having a laugh.

The one thing that will guarantee their departure above all else is the dismissive attitude of English people who like to remind them how dependent they are on England.

Don’t get me wrong though, Scotland’s departure from the UK would have hugely negative impact on theirs and our economies and it would be very sad if it happened, but like the Brexiteers keep telling us, it’s not all about the economy or we’d have never left the EU.

EU would funnel money in by the boatload.

More seriously a vote for independence would be followed by years of transition where Scotland remained within the UK economic sphere whilst prepping for full independence. They would also be likely fast tracked under the EU accession procedure but it will be a complex negotiation involving Edinburgh, London and Brussels.

The only immediate difference would be barring Scottish MPs from decisions/votes on non Scottish matters or even any UK matters but as they don’t get a say when it matters I doubt they will miss it.

Reality though is years of negotiations and tensions while remaining economically within the UK prior to independence. They only have to look at Ireland to see how it can be done and what can ultimately be achieved.

Still against it happening though, but not up to me and England no longer cares so it will probably happen.

 

[Ban-jani]

If former Warsaw Pact and Soviet republics can meet the criteria I’m sure it wouldn’t take Scotland long bearing in mind its economy is already aligned with EU regulations. And poorest country in Europe? You’ve got to be having a laugh.

The one thing that will guarantee their departure above all else is the dismissive attitude of English people who like to remind them how dependent they are on England.

Don’t get me wrong though, Scotland’s departure from the UK would have hugely negative impact on theirs and our economies and it would be very sad if it happened, but like the Brexiteers keep telling us, it’s not all about the economy or we’d have never left the EU.

Regarding deficit, the target is 3%, set by the EU’s Stability & Growth Pact (SGP) aka Maastricht criteria.

Scotland was at double this prior to Covid-19. There are no plans currently in place to bring this down over the next decade and they could well be 3 times that level by the time Brexit has calmed.

Now, these are guidelines rather than a specific rules, as Croatia has proven, however Croatia had the excuse of the 2008 crash and were at 2.7% prior to the crash, which convinced the EU that they were able to operate at that level. The EU imposed strict fiscal measures on Croatia for joining though and its worth noting that Scotland’s will likely be heavier, even if they were allowed in, which essentially means enforced austerity.

The EU holds pretty much all the cards and is able to simply say no. Scotland would have to prove its ability to likely reduce its deficit by at least 3 times, practically impossible when it becomes independent and it’ll have to agree to join the Single Currency at some time in the near future.

I am deadly serious when I say they would be the poorest nation in Europe, they’ll be outside both the EU and UK for at least a significant period of time. There is no way Scotland’s economy could survive that, it’ll make Brexit look like a stubbed toe, compared to your foot being cut off by a hack saw.

It’s not dismissive attitudes of me, I want the UK to remain in tact but I am not entirely opposed to an independent England, if that is the future for the country.

As I did with Brexit, I’m merely focusing on what I think the economic impacts will be and needless to say, Scotland will be truly fucked.

 

[west didsblue]

Regarding deficit, the target is 3%, set by the EU’s Stability & Growth Pact (SGP) aka Maastricht criteria.

Scotland was at double this prior to Covid-19. There are no plans currently in place to bring this down over the next decade and they could well be 3 times that level by the time Brexit has calmed.

Now, these are guidelines rather than a specific rules, as Croatia has proven, however Croatia had the excuse of the 2008 crash and were at 2.7% prior to the crash, which convinced the EU that they were able to operate at that level. The EU imposed strict fiscal measures on Croatia for joining though and its worth noting that Scotland’s will likely be heavier, even if they were allowed in, which essentially means enforced austerity.

The EU holds pretty much all the cards and is able to simply say no. Scotland would have to prove its ability to likely reduce its deficit by at least 3 times, practically impossible when it becomes independent and it’ll have to agree to join the Single Currency at some time in the near future.

I am deadly serious when I say they would be the poorest nation in Europe, they’ll be outside both the EU and UK for at least a significant period of time. There is no way Scotland’s economy could survive that, it’ll make Brexit look like a stubbed toe, compared to your foot being cut off by a hack saw.

It’s not dismissive attitudes of me, I want the UK to remain in tact but I am not entirely opposed to an independent England, if that is the future for the country.

As I did with Brexit, I’m merely focusing on what I think the economic impacts will be and needless to say, Scotland will be truly fucked.

I think we’re all in agreement that it’s a bad idea and would be a sad day if our 300 year union were to break up.
Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, particularly if they feel (correctly or incorrectly) they haven’t got anything to lose following No Deal or a shit deal.

 

[Ban-jani]

I think we’re all in agreement that it’s a bad idea and would be a sad day if our 300 year union were to break up.
Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, particularly if they feel (correctly or incorrectly) they haven’t got anything to lose following No Deal or a shit deal.

I just think some of the points I’ve highlighted will be out in the open.

The status quo campaign will learn lessons from Remain and if they even do an average job, I think they’ll vote no.

There’s 3 blockers for me for an independent Scotland :

1/ No PM will want to grant another referendum, certainly not in the foreseeable future

2/ Even if they did, as I say the reality is a lot clearer and harsher than Brexit

3/ The deal to leave will be far more complex than Brexit, will likely take longer and I think pressure to stop it will create mass regret, pushing the SNP to reverse the decision

I’ve always maintained Scottish Independence is Brexit on steroids. It’s not just a bad idea, it’s the worst.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Regarding deficit, the target is 3%, set by the EU’s Stability & Growth Pact (SGP) aka Maastricht criteria.

Scotland was at double this prior to Covid-19. There are no plans currently in place to bring this down over the next decade and they could well be 3 times that level by the time Brexit has calmed.

Now, these are guidelines rather than a specific rules, as Croatia has proven, however Croatia had the excuse of the 2008 crash and were at 2.7% prior to the crash, which convinced the EU that they were able to operate at that level. The EU imposed strict fiscal measures on Croatia for joining though and its worth noting that Scotland’s will likely be heavier, even if they were allowed in, which essentially means enforced austerity.

The EU holds pretty much all the cards and is able to simply say no. Scotland would have to prove its ability to likely reduce its deficit by at least 3 times, practically impossible when it becomes independent and it’ll have to agree to join the Single Currency at some time in the near future.

I am deadly serious when I say they would be the poorest nation in Europe, they’ll be outside both the EU and UK for at least a significant period of time. There is no way Scotland’s economy could survive that, it’ll make Brexit look like a stubbed toe, compared to your foot being cut off by a hack saw.

It’s not dismissive attitudes of me, I want the UK to remain in tact but I am not entirely opposed to an independent England, if that is the future for the country.

As I did with Brexit, I’m merely focusing on what I think the economic impacts will be and needless to say, Scotland will be truly fucked.

I agree with a lot of this. I tend to see Scots independence as a mini brexit. The hard economic facts will only be a small factor. Nationalistic bollocks will play a much bigger part and the fact that England subsidises Scotland will be largely ignored.

The bottom line is they will vote for it - and then whoever is in charge will have to make the square peg fit in the round hole as promised. The issues would be massive and I think the biggest are:-

National debt - what happens to the sharing out of collective sovereign debt?
Financing Public spending - who funds the Scottish deficit or do they cut back to a neutral income/expense?
National assets and armed forces - how do you split out things like the Armed Forces that are a singular structure and located globally?
What about domestic services / institutions like HMRC and every other Gov dept - do you replicate? - at what cost?
What happens at the border? Are you going to have regulatory divergence so a need for customs etc?

Its just like Brexit - utter madness to focus on this when we have enough real problems to sort out. But they would still vote for it. In the same way that I think that the brexit vote was partly a form of dissent from working class communities sticking it to the liberal elite this would be the same from the Scots. A retaliation for the brexit decision that they did not vote for. All of it makes us significantly poorer as a nation. It all comes at a ridiculous cost. I blame the tories who started the BS politics - this is just a further extension of it.

 

[Ban-jani]

I agree with a lot of this. I tend to see Scots independence as a mini brexit. The hard economic facts will only be a small factor. Nationalistic bollocks will play a much bigger part and the fact that England subsidises Scotland will be largely ignored.

The bottom line is they will vote for it - and then whoever is in charge will have to make the square peg fit in the round hole as promised. The issues would be massive and I think the biggest are:-

National debt - what happens to the sharing out of collective sovereign debt?
Financing Public spending - who funds the Scottish deficit or do they cut back to a neutral income/expense?
National assets and armed forces - how do you split out things like the Armed Forces that are a singular structure and located globally?
What about domestic services / institutions like HMRC and every other Gov dept - do you replicate? - at what cost?
What happens at the border? Are you going to have regulatory divergence so a need for customs etc?

Its just like Brexit - utter madness to focus on this when we have enough real problems to sort out. But they would still vote for it. In the same way that I think that the brexit vote was partly a form of dissent from working class communities sticking it to the liberal elite this would be the same from the Scots. A retaliation for the brexit decision that they did not vote for. All of it makes us significantly poorer as a nation. It all comes at a ridiculous cost. I blame the tories who started the BS politics - this is just a further extension of it.

My hope is that they’re smart enough to learn from Brexit and the true horrors of independence will be laid bare to them, although I can appreciate your point.

None of the very pertinent points you and I have raised are ever ever spoken about by Sturgeon. The detail is ignored entirely and if the press ask about the above, which they seldom do, she deflects. She’s a more left wing version of Farage, that comes across a little better.

It’s like Brexit but x 100 imo. They’re a much smaller force than the UK, are more reliant on England than the UK is on the EU and the split is a much more severe piece of surgery.

Nationalist bitterness is it’s greatest chance so let’s see but I get the impression we’ll still be talking about this in 10 years.

I just hope if it does happen, England will get it’s own independence vote. By that time I think many will have had enough of the anti-English sentiment on Britain and Ireland and we’ll want to go our own way too.

 

[BobKowalski]

For ze nerds...

New EU proposals re Channel Tunnel safety

1 amendment to EU railway safety law: https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regdoc/rep/1/2020/EN/COM-2020-623-F1-EN-MAIN-PART-1.PDF

2 authorisation for France to negotiate with UK: https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regdoc/rep/1/2020/EN/COM-2020-622-F1-EN-MAIN-PART-1.PDF

NB this treaty must apply EU law and arbitrators have to refer EU questions to CJEU

Fun and games ahead.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I agree with a lot of this. I tend to see Scots independence as a mini brexit. The hard economic facts will only be a small factor. Nationalistic bollocks will play a much bigger part and the fact that England subsidises Scotland will be largely ignored.

The bottom line is they will vote for it - and then whoever is in charge will have to make the square peg fit in the round hole as promised. The issues would be massive and I think the biggest are:-

National debt - what happens to the sharing out of collective sovereign debt?
Financing Public spending - who funds the Scottish deficit or do they cut back to a neutral income/expense?
National assets and armed forces - how do you split out things like the Armed Forces that are a singular structure and located globally?
What about domestic services / institutions like HMRC and every other Gov dept - do you replicate? - at what cost?
What happens at the border? Are you going to have regulatory divergence so a need for customs etc?

Its just like Brexit - utter madness to focus on this when we have enough real problems to sort out. But they would still vote for it. In the same way that I think that the brexit vote was partly a form of dissent from working class communities sticking it to the liberal elite this would be the same from the Scots. A retaliation for the brexit decision that they did not vote for. All of it makes us significantly poorer as a nation. It all comes at a ridiculous cost. I blame the tories who started the BS politics - this is just a further extension of it.

Many of these questions are covered in the 2018 Scottish Sustainable growth committee report that deals amongst other things with approach to share an appropriate level of U.K. debt, management of the deficit and currency/central bank provision. Which of their proposals do you have an issue with?

 

[Ban-jani]

Many of these questions are covered in the 2018 Scottish Sustainable growth committee report that deals amongst other things with approach to share an appropriate level of U.K. debt, management of the deficit and currency/central bank provision. Which of their proposals do you have an issue with?

Just to take one particular issue, currency, they’ve stated in the report they want to retain the pound sterling but want a central Scottish Bank.

It’s as laughable as full Single Market access without adhering to the Four Freedoms.

I have many many more, including the border, which again, is totally laughable that they think England will ignore MFN to ensure Scotland isn’t damaged by a closed border.

I know you think Farage’s mob has taken people for a ride, do you not think this is potentially happening to you?

 

[Saddleworth2]

Just to take one particular issue, currency, they’ve stated in the report they want to retain the pound sterling but want a central Scottish Bank.

It’s as laughable as full Single Market access without adhering to the Four Freedoms.

I have many many more, including the border, which again, is totally laughable that they think England will ignore MFN to ensure Scotland isn’t damaged by a closed border.

I know you think Farage’s mob has taken people for a ride, do you not think this is potentially happening to you?

You clearly haven’t read the report. I would welcome a civil debate when you have.