Another new Brexit thread

[Vic]

Odds if a deal has been done

Both sides are pissed off with it - 5/1
Both sides pretend they are happy with it - evens
One is happy one isn't - 20/1


Both sides don’t believe a word the other lot say - 1/1000 on

Johnson collects on his bet that there would be a deal (though ladbrokes wouldn't give him a million to one).

 

[west didsblue]

I’d say the only people truly disappointed on here are the remainers.
My god you lot are like a broken record.

Not disappointed in the slightest. It’s the best I could have hoped for in the ridiculous circumstances that Johnson had put us in thanks to the WA where he carved up the UK.
The reason he held on for so long was to avoid scrutiny from the Brexiteers not the Remainers. You can kid yourself you’ve got some great victory but the reality is that it’s a bit shit for everyone but could have been a whole lot worse.

 

[meltonblue]

We haven’t even seen the deal yet, predicting who is going to be most pleased or deciding already you’re pleased is utterly ridiculous.

One of the most irritating things about this whole saga is that it’s never been about facts, it’s always been about control of narrative. It’s why what was deemed acceptable or unacceptable to both sides of the debate four years ago has shifted so much.

 

[Vic]

Nah - I am sure that the Remainers will move on and together we ensure that we are all behind the UK making the best progress from this point

Well, you'll be wanting to dismantle the bits of the deal you don't like and will support the UK if we decided not to honour the deal, and I'll be lobbying to progress toward restoring what we've lost, from roaming charges and EHIC cards to getting in EU workers for Pret (for the sake of our dairy farmers) and the NHS and care homes to hoping all the costs of customs red tape doesn't ruin more businesses.

We'll see if no tariffs saves car plants, and agriculture, but I'll not "get behind" the present bunch of corrupt incompetent liars running (make that ruining) the country.

 

[mcfc1632]

Well, you'll be wanting to dismantle the bits of the deal you don't like and will support the UK if we decided not to honour the deal, and I'll be lobbying to progress toward restoring what we've lost, from roaming charges and EHIC cards to getting in EU workers for Pret (for the sake of our dairy farmers) and the NHS and care homes to hoping all the costs of customs red tape doesn't ruin more businesses.

We'll see if no tariffs saves car plants, and agriculture, but I'll not "get behind" the present bunch of corrupt incompetent liars running (make that ruining) the country.

Understandable

I will be able to move on because Brexit has been achieved in a manner that I am quite satisfied about - or at least way beyond what I thought would be possible during 2017-2019 - and for the same reason you will not be able to move on, but will 'remain' locked in your bubble of 2016 pre-referendum campaigning

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Yeah, we could have done this deal two months ago, but then it would have been two months of scrutiny and accusations of giving in too easily and not holding out for greater concessions. It would be ‘the EU will crack if we hold firm, have the will to walk away etc etc’, which we be never did, walk away that is.

Now, everyone is just relieved it’s done, it’s Christmas Eve, and no one will care until January after it has passed the Commons.

We could have done this deal 4 years ago.

It’s sad that we've pandered to Farage’s ideology for so long, but when push came to shove, his ideas didnt (and never) make economical sense,

On the plus side, there will be a massive majority backing the deal. Only the Brexit super believers will be against it, so whilst mcfc1632 won’t be happy, (but claim victory anyway), it’ll leave the U.K. as a vassal state, totally sovereign, but lacking the power to do anything.

Let’s see what the food price increase will be in the new year and see how people react to it.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Call me a cynic but 2 days ago Macron closed the borders.
Was this him flexing his muscles on Brexit?
Then 3 days later we agree a deal on Brexit with the EU.
Was this a Brexit test run with nothing to do with coronavirus?

 

[Rascal]

Call me a cynic but 2 days ago Macron closed the borders.
Was this him flexing his muscles on Brexit?
Then 3 days later we agree a deal on Brexit with the EU.
Was this a Brexit test run with nothing to do with coronavirus?

I am as a cynical as they come but i do think it was a genuine attempt to stop the BorisBug spreading.

 

[BlueHammer85]

If we have left without the inappropriate ties to EU regulations that the EU had secured a couple of years ago and we can make our own policy choices - then it is a good deal - indeed a good deal better than I thought was remotely possible until 12 months ago

what policy choices could we not make before ?

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Understandable

I will be able to move on because Brexit has been achieved in a manner that I am quite satisfied about - or at least way beyond what I thought would be possible during 2017-2019 - and for the same reason you will not be able to move on, but will 'remain' locked in your bubble of 2016 pre-referendum campaigning

It's looking good to me, so far. Despite everything we've heard saying there would be no chance of the EU allowing single market access, it looks like we have it plus no ECJ oversight, something else dismissed incessantly.
Fishing appears to be agreed on 25% phased over 5 years, which apparently leaves the UK with two thirds in 2026, I'll live with that, compared to what we
have now, if all this pans out, that's Brexit done.

it’ll leave the U.K. as a vassal state, totally sovereign, but lacking the power to do anything.

How do you come to that conclusion, over 50 independent deals are already done, more in the pipeline due, what's stopping that? Where's the vassalage?

 

[west didsblue]

We could have done this deal 4 years ago.

It’s sad that we've pandered to Farage’s ideology for so long, but when push came to shove, his ideas didnt (and never) make economical sense,

On the plus side, there will be a massive majority backing the deal. Only the Brexit super believers will be against it, so whilst mcfc1632 won’t be happy, (but claim victory anyway), it’ll leave the U.K. as a vassal state, totally sovereign, but lacking the power to do anything.

Let’s see what the food price increase will be in the new year and see how people react to it.

It’s actually quite funny watching the No Deal merchants on here (not all of them) declaring satisfaction with a deal that they haven’t seen where according to various leaks it would appear that we’ve backed down on the issues they were insistent we held firm on.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Call me a cynic but 2 days ago Macron closed the borders.
Was this him flexing his muscles on Brexit?
Then 3 days later we agree a deal on Brexit with the EU.
Was this a Brexit test run with nothing to do with coronavirus?

Could have been but I do think it was about the mutant bug in reality - however in terms of the timing I strongly suspect Johnson has agreed a deal on Xmas eve so as to make sure that - like the WA - there is little or no scrutiny of the detail. He just wants to "get Brexit done" and then leave office - running away from the consequences of his actions is classic Johnson

 

[Vic]

We haven’t even seen the deal yet, predicting who is going to be most pleased or deciding already you’re pleased is utterly ridiculous.

One of the most irritating things about this whole saga is that it’s never been about facts, it’s always been about control of narrative. It’s why what was deemed acceptable or unacceptable to both sides of the debate four years ago has shifted so much.

The Tory press are pleased.

I see what you mean about not being about facts.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

If reports are true then is is super news for all those worried about no deal, and for those of us that wanted to leave our EU friends on good terms.

 

[Len Rum]

It's looking good to me, so far. Despite everything we've heard saying there would be no chance of the EU allowing single market access, it looks like we have it plus no ECJ oversight, something else dismissed incessantly.
Fishing appears to be agreed on 25% phased over 5 years, which apparently leaves the UK with two thirds in 2026, I'll live with that, compared to what we
have now, if all this pans out, that's Brexit done.

How do you come to that conclusion, over 50 independent deals are already done, more in the pipeline due, what's stopping that? Where's the vassalage?

Fishing agreement is being reported as a 25% reduction in EU catch phased in over five years which still leaves the EU with 75% of their current catch.
Lots of other countries have single market access - it's just subject to lots of conditions and rules as in the case of this reported deal.

 

[Saddleworth2]

For anyone wanting to scrutinise the detail of the deal. This guide from the TB Institute might help.

https://institute.global/sites/default/files/2020-11/Tony%20Blair%20Institute%2C%20Unpacking%20the%20Brexit%20Deal%2C%20November%202020%20FINAL.pdf

 

[Vic]

It's looking good to me, so far. Despite everything we've heard saying there would be no chance of the EU allowing single market access, it looks like we have it plus no ECJ oversight, something else dismissed incessantly.

Fishing appears to be agreed on 25% phased over 5 years, which apparently leaves the UK with two thirds in 2026, I'll live with that, compared to what we
have now, if all this pans out, that's Brexit done.

How do you come to that conclusion, over 50 independent deals are already done, more in the pipeline due, what's stopping that? Where's the vassalage?

So we have tariff-free single market access (in most goods but not services or procurement) until we want to depart from EU rules which we no longer have a say in.

We eventually keep most EU fishing fleets out of uk waters, with little idea of how that will benefit us.

I really don't know what provision there is in our "independent" rollover deals that match the EU deals for when the EU change regs. Can we diverge under these independent deals? I know we've "rolled over" the amendment clauses from the EU-Japan deal.

 

[BobKowalski]

We haven’t even seen the deal yet, predicting who is going to be most pleased or deciding already you’re pleased is utterly ridiculous.

One of the most irritating things about this whole saga is that it’s never been about facts, it’s always been about control of narrative. It’s why what was deemed acceptable or unacceptable to both sides of the debate four years ago has shifted so much.

Yeah, the rush to declare ‘victory’ in absence of any details is premature, especially as it still hasn’t been agreed as both sides are still haggling on individual fish species.

But assuming it gets signed off, what we do know is that we will have a trade barrier between ourselves and Europe and between GB and NI and the barriers to services will be higher than for goods. How high these barriers will be we will only know when we see the detail, and like the WA there will be lots of detail that will only make itself known months down the line.

This will also be the first modern trade deal designed to make trade more difficult, not easier, and that is a sad milestone for a nation that likes to see itself as a champion of ‘free trade’.

 

[Vic]

We could have done this deal 4 years ago.

It’s sad that we've pandered to Farage’s ideology for so long, but when push came to shove, his ideas didnt (and never) make economical sense,

On the plus side, there will be a massive majority backing the deal. Only the Brexit super believers will be against it, so whilst mcfc1632 won’t be happy, (but claim victory anyway), it’ll leave the U.K. as a vassal state, totally sovereign, but lacking the power to do anything.

Let’s see what the food price increase will be in the new year and see how people react to it.

Food prices won't increase like they would with no deal.

 

[bluethrunthru]

All good? Coveney saying there is a last minute hitch.......and just about everyone calling in to LBC is against it. They seem to all be Brexiters and guess what? They all wanted something different from Brexit and this isn't it ! Predictable.