Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[cibaman]

So I see Labour are already abandoning their failed manifesto.


You can remove the word hard as we all know remaining in the Single Market means remaining in the EU.

I don't think the issue is whether we leave the single market. I think its now widely accepted that legally leaving the EU means legally leaving the single market. The question really is whether we try to build a relationship outside of the single market which retains some of the benefits of the single market. Or whether total control over immigration remains the overriding red line objective, with no scope for compromise.

And also, how quickly do we leave the single market? An insane two year timetable or a phased withdrawal?

 

[Bewar3them00n]

Under May we have been acting the school bully, bossing the rest of the U.K. Around, giving it the tough talk shpeil, Corbyn gave May a bloody nose and it's been downhill ever since, the rest of Europe see she is weakened, visibly rocked by the past month of elections, attacks and Grenfall disaster, May is now scrambling around to rescue he faltering reputation, the DUP are playing hardball, with years of tough negotiations under their belts and the state of Nick Clegg and the Liberals after the Tories were done with them a visible reminder, they aren't about to be all starry eyed.
Our first few days of Brexit negotiations have left The Tories winded, the sudden realisation the Europe will not budge, and if we are to leave, that pound of flesh will have to be cut, or be brought whimpering to heel saying it was all a big mistake.
Whichever way you look at it, it's been a fucking disaster for May, that she hasn't fallen on her sword yet is surprising.
Like a drunk at the bar insisting they're perfectly fine to drive home, clutching the car keys in a deathly grip as the rest of the party try to convince her it's not a good idea, if ever there was a time for a u- turn, now Theresa, is the time

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I can't speak for all remainers, just for myself. I don't think anybody wants the economy to go down the pan just to prove that we were right all along. However, the fear is that if Brexit is taken to it's conclusion then that is what is likely to happen. Everything that has happened so far, the Pound, inflation, political turmoil and disarray, lack of vision and a coherent strategy, has reinforced our fears that the whole Brexit project is being fueled by ideological zeal with the economy and welfare of society coming a very poor and distant second.

Yes, that's how I view people's opinion too.
Some would like the political fallout of it turning into a mess, but don't actually want the economy to disintegrate to get that - can't really have both at the same time, and the economy not tanking is more important.

 

[The perfect fumble]

I'd be interested to know.

Did any leavers here think that leaving the EU would be good for the economy, in the short to medium term?

 

[BobKowalski]

i agree. labour ran on leaving the single market and ending FOM, if they go against that they have just lied to the public. there in a mess with their brexit position.

Not convinced that it matters. Europe and the EU has been a Tory issue for decades. Brexit is a Tory issue. The referendum occurred under a Tory Govt (it wouldn't have taken place under a Labour Govt), the fallout from Sterling devaluation to political chaos has been triggered by Tory decisions. The Brexit negotiations all under Tory control. Future fallout will be Tory owned. No one cares what Labour thinks as it is not a Labour issue and Labour can change its stance as the fallout spreads and public sentiment shifts. Tories will be stuck with this shitstain for years.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I'd be interested to know.

Did any leavers here think that leaving the EU would be good for the economy, in the short to medium term?

I'm pretty sure most leavers knew there would be a rocky period before stability

 

[BobKowalski]

I'd be interested to know.

Did any leavers here think that leaving the EU would be good for the economy, in the short to medium term?

One thing I have noticed is how the mood music has changed. An absence of 'they need us more than we need them', 'German carmakers will force the EU to cut a deal in our favour' etc. It's goodbye sunny uplands and unicorns; instead it's Hammond warning about no deal being bad for us and the BoE saying there will be no cake. It's now all about minimising damage and nothing about benefits.

 

[BobKowalski]

I'm pretty sure most leavers knew there would be a rocky period before stability

Really? Pretty sure anyone saying there would be a rocky period was dismissed as 'Project Fear'. We were told it would be easy and the NHS would be swimming in extra cash. 'The EU needs us more than we need them'. 'The EU is a basket case on the verge of collapse'. Remember? It was only a short year ago.

 

[west didsblue]

Under May we have been acting the school bully, bossing the rest of the U.K. Around, giving it the tough talk shpeil, Corbyn gave May a bloody nose and it's been downhill ever since, the rest of Europe see she is weakened, visibly rocked by the past month of elections, attacks and Grenfall disaster, May is now scrambling around to rescue he faltering reputation, the DUP are playing hardball, with years of tough negotiations under their belts and the state of Nick Clegg and the Liberals after the Tories were done with them a visible reminder, they aren't about to be all starry eyed.
Our first few days of Brexit negotiations have left The Tories winded, the sudden realisation the Europe will not budge, and if we are to leave, that pound of flesh will have to be cut, or be brought whimpering to heel saying it was all a big mistake.
Whichever way you look at it, it's been a fucking disaster for May, that she hasn't fallen on her sword yet is surprising.
Like a drunk at the bar insisting they're perfectly fine to drive home, clutching the car keys in a deathly grip as the rest of the party try to convince her it's not a good idea, if ever there was a time for a u- turn, now Theresa, is the time

The Conservatives will keep her in place for the next few months to take the brunt of the flak about the terrorist incidents (police cuts), the Grenfell fire (fire service cuts and lax regulations), concessions to the DUP and climbdowns in the early parts of the Brexit negotiations. Once that's out of the way they'll get rid.
I reckon we'll end up with a Switzerland like deal - out of the single market but with market access for most things and freedom of movement for most but not all EU citizens. This will be agreed by the new prime minister and will be trumpeted as a great success even though the EU will have got 99% of what it wants.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I don't think the issue is whether we leave the single market. I think its now widely accepted that legally leaving the EU means legally leaving the single market. The question really is whether we try to build a relationship outside of the single market which retains some of the benefits of the single market. Or whether total control over immigration remains the overriding red line objective, with no scope for compromise.

And also, how quickly do we leave the single market? An insane two year timetable or a phased withdrawal?

The lack of any kind of articulated vision for what we actually want is simply astonishing. In the year since the vote it appears that other than triggering article 50, nothing has been done to plan our end point round single market and customs agreements. I always believed that the key to a successful negotiation is to be clear about what you want from it. It is clear that we don't have that. The other thing that I can't believe is the lack of serious mobilisation to support the brexit programme of work. The Guardian is reporting today that 750 senior civil servant policy makers will be transferred from existing departments to brexit workstreams. Fuck sake, that should have happened months and months ago. They could have been preparing our negotiating position for the commencement of talks. The other point to make is that those civil servants will not be replaced or backfilled, so whatever work they thought they would be doing in the next two years won't happen. This government is showing they are completely incapable of running something of this size and complexity. They lack the intellectual power and the leadership drive to execute this. It was always going to be bumpy but with the sheer incompetence of its execution it will be a disaster.