Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[Chippy_boy]

I do think politics will have a say in the shape of the final deal but I can't look past the idea that these are generally sensible people who aren't going to blow up the Continent economically for the sake of some political leverage.

My most controversial opinion that I hold is that most politicians are generally doing what they think is best for the people, county or country that they represent

Sure, but slapping a 10% tax in a small amount of your trade is not exactly going to "blow up the Continent". For every export to the UK that is slightly reduced, there's the opportunity for slightly increased exports to other EU member states, where the UK goods are now more expensive since they are now also taxed. I think someone quoted a figure that 14% of Germany's cars go to the UK. I would guess that is perhaps the single biggest EU export to the UK, of any product from any country. If sales of 14% of its output went down by a few percent, we are talking about perhaps a 1% drop in overall sales. Compensated for by an increase in sales elsewhere in Europe. So probably less than 1% overall. Not exactly a calamity. Other member states would be hit much, much less. And some would even welcome trade barriers to protect their domestic markets from UK exporters.

On the other hand, giving the green light to other member states that you can leave and enjoy all the benefits of staying? I don't think that would blow up the continent either, but I think it could do an awful lot of damage and I think that will weigh heavily on politicians minds.

Anyway, we'll soon see. In my estimation, there is zero hope of a tariff-free deal without at the very minimum, substantial membership fees - perhaps more than we already pay - and other commitments too. This has some legs since the EU could do with our cash, but even then, I think it's very unlikely. More likely I think is a hard Brexit with all the adverse consequences that implies. And not at all what was promised by the Brexit camp nor voted for by many.

 

[Len Rum]

Sure, but slapping a 10% tax in a small amount of your trade is not exactly going to "blow up the Continent". For every export to the UK that is slightly reduced, there's the opportunity for slightly increased exports to other EU member states, where the UK goods are now more expensive since they are now also taxed. I think someone quoted a figure that 14% of Germany's cars go to the UK. I would guess that is perhaps the single biggest EU export to the UK, of any product from any country. If sales of 14% of its output went down by a few percent, we are talking about perhaps a 1% drop in overall sales. Compensated for by an increase in sales elsewhere in Europe. So probably less than 1% overall. Not exactly a calamity. Other member states would be hit much, much less. And some would even welcome trade barriers to protect their domestic markets from UK exporters.

On the other hand, giving the green light to other member states that you can leave and enjoy all the benefits of staying? I don't think that would blow up the continent either, but I think it could do an awful lot of damage and I think that will weigh heavily on politicians minds.

Anyway, we'll soon see. In my estimation, there is zero hope of a tariff-free deal without at the very minimum, substantial membership fees - perhaps more than we already pay - and other commitments too. This has some legs since the EU could do with our cash, but even then, I think it's very unlikely. More likely I think is a hard Brexit with all the adverse consequences that implies. And not at all what was promised by the Brexit camp nor voted for by many.

But hard Brexit is exactly what your Tory mates want.
Under cover of a hard Brexit they will cut taxes to businesses, cut public spending and welfare, scrap the minimum wage and basically remove all workers rights and business regulations.
Job done.

 

[CityStu]

But hard Brexit is exactly what your Tory mates want.
Under cover of a hard Brexit they will cut taxes to businesses, cut public spending and welfare, scrap the minimum wage and basically remove all workers rights and business regulations.
Job done.

The Tories wouldn't get elected if they proposed scrapping the minimum wage and all worker's rights.

Well, they shouldn't, but we do need a credible opposition to challenge them. I'd really struggle between the Tories on the above manifesto and the current Labour party, which is immensely sad.

 

[Len Rum]

The Tories wouldn't get elected if they proposed scrapping the minimum wage and all worker's rights.

Well, they shouldn't, but we do need a credible opposition to challenge them. I'd really struggle between the Tories on the above manifesto and the current Labour party, which is immensely sad.

And therein lies the rub mate.
Under cover of a hard Brexit and with a non existent opposition they will go for it.
However don't be surprised if they are a little more subtle than announcing and enacting it all in one go.
They will do it by stealth.

 

[Chippy_boy]

But hard Brexit is exactly what your Tory mates want.
Under cover of a hard Brexit they will cut taxes to businesses, cut public spending and welfare, scrap the minimum wage and basically remove all workers rights and business regulations.
Job done.

I suspect you may be right. I'm ok with all of that, doubtless you aren't.

But if it comes to pass, try to keep telling yourself, Tories are not evil, they simply have different priorities. We ALL want excellent public services and highly paid jobs. It's just that Tories think you have to earn it first. Labour think we should just spend the money we haven't got and hope for the best.

 

[Len Rum]

I suspect you may be right. I'm ok with all of that, doubtless you aren't.

But if it comes to pass, try to keep telling yourself, Tories are not evil, they simply have different priorities. We ALL want excellent public services and highly paid jobs. It's just that Tories think you have to earn it first. Labour think we should just spend the money we haven't got and hope for the best.

Err you're 'ok with that'.
Using Brexit to turn the country into a sweat shop economy ( excepting London of course).

 

[blueinsa]

I suspect you may be right. I'm ok with all of that, doubtless you aren't.

But if it comes to pass, try to keep telling yourself, Tories are not evil, they simply have different priorities. We ALL want excellent public services and highly paid jobs. It's just that Tories think you have to earn it first. Labour think we should just spend the money we haven't got and hope for the best.

Scrap the minimum wage and take away the biggest excuse thats ever been handed to business to pay millions virtually fuck all yet claim they are adhering to the law?

Tories and their business chums are not that stupid!

 

[Len Rum]

Scrap the minimum wage and take away the biggest excuse thats ever been handed to business to pay millions virtually fuck all yet claim they are adhering to the law?

Tories and their business chums are not that stupid!

Why not?
Scrap it and pay less than fcuk all.
You know it makes sense.

 

[blueinsa]

Why not?
Scrap it and pay less than fcuk all.
You know it makes sense.

Not a chance.

As a labour man all my life i was delighted when it got brought in but fuck me did business not quickly catch on and think, fuck it, lets all pay the absolute bare minimum and that is that!

Remember the excitement you used to have when it came around to wage rise time of the year?

Probably not because if you are stuck on a minimum wage job then that is your lot for the rest of your life whilst those in charge line their fucking pockets safe in the knowledge they are paying the minimum.

 

[Vic]

I hear lots of farmers are pleased that we're no longer going to be under the Common Agricultural Policy which might sound good for them but I fear this could be one of those hidden dangers for the populace.

Nah, all the subsidies they now get will have to go to fulfil the promise on the side of that bus - all for the NHS, nowt for farmers.

As for the concept of country: