"Where's the bad news"?? - well two of your illustrious leave colleagues mcfc and Metal Biker have suggested 20 and 17 periods respectively of economic hardship before we readjust our economic model and reach the sunny uplands of global trading Britain ( incidentally I agree with them except I would add one important qualification 'possible sunny uplands').So the EU now know that we won't be ripped off on the exit deal and we are serious when we say no deal is better than a bad deal? Where's the bad news?
I genuinely do not believe that you are - despite all your concerted efforts to make everyone think you love any bad news for the UK with regard Brexit.Of course, I'm a traitor and hate my country.
250000. The number of people estimated to have voted leave who have now 'left'.16. Arbitrary maybe. Like not giving the vote to Brits who've lived a long time outside the UK, but might now have to come back.
Where's the bad news in the EU being told they won't be having our pants down in any negotiations, and if they want them to have a positive outcome they need to stop talking about a.60 billion pound exit deal. This isn't happening."Where's the bad news"?? - well two of your illustrious leave colleagues mcfc and Metal Biker have suggested 20 and 17 periods respectively of economic hardship before we readjust our economic model and reach the sunny uplands of global trading Britain ( incidentally I agree with them except I would add one important qualification 'possible sunny uplands').
So I would be interested in your fact based assessment of the impact of no deal.
Where's the bad news in the EU being told they won't be having our pants down in any negotiations, and if they want them to have a positive outcome they need to stop talking about a.60 billion pound exit deal. This isn't happening.
Thanks for your reply, any chance of your qualitative assessment ( fact based) of the impact on the UK economy of no deal?Where's the bad news in the EU being told they won't be having our pants down in any negotiations, and if they want them to have a positive outcome they need to stop talking about a.60 billion pound exit deal. This isn't happening.
Thanks for your reply, any chance of your qualitative assessment ( fact based) of the impact on the UK economy of no deal?
No deal effectively means WTO tariffs on our exports to the EU just like most of the rest of the planet, can't see the big deal with this myself. It also means we can negotiate free trade deals with the growing economies outside of the EU, the brnefits of which will more than offset the damaging effects of any tariffs, which are greatly exaggerated imo. It's my belief that common sense will prevail and a mutually beneficial free trade deal will be signed but we shouldn't allow ourselves to be bullied into paying an outrageous amount into the EU coffers to achieve it.Thanks for your reply, any chance of your qualitative assessment ( fact based) of the impact on the UK economy of no deal?
That won't be enough for Len. He's the facts based type, you see.No deal effectively means WTO tariffs on our exports to the EU just like most of the rest of the planet, can't see the big deal with this myself. It also means we can negotiate free trade deals with the growing economies outside of the EU, the brnefits of which will more than offset the damaging effects of any tariffs, which are greatly exaggerated imo. It's my belief that common sense will prevail and a mutually beneficial free trade deal will be signed but we shouldn't allow ourselves to be bullied into paying an outrageous amount into the EU coffers to achieve it.
That won't be enough for Len. He's the facts based type, you see.
Price tariffs would be the least of our problems.No deal effectively means WTO tariffs on our exports to the EU just like most of the rest of the planet, can't see the big deal with this myself. It also means we can negotiate free trade deals with the growing economies outside of the EU, the brnefits of which will more than offset the damaging effects of any tariffs, which are greatly exaggerated imo. It's my belief that common sense will prevail and a mutually beneficial free trade deal will be signed but we shouldn't allow ourselves to be bullied into paying an outrageous amount into the EU coffers to achieve it.
I gave a more lengthy reply above Gaylord but I'll keep it simple for you.That won't be enough for Len. He's the facts based type, you see.
The vast majority of UK-EU trade is intra-sectorial. We import the same type of goods that we export.
If we were to adopt a restrictive tariff rate then this trade would decline rapidly. The consequences are likely to be a move to servicing domestic markets.
Lets look at the absolute case where EU-UK trade ceases completely.
As the UK is a net importer the market for UK goods will increase where as the EU market would decline. This would create a massive boost for the UK economy while Germany, France, Holland and Belgium would all be stuck with massive overproduction.
This intra-sectorial trade model is part of the EU cartel scheme where it creates economies of scale and therefore reduces manufacturing costs. If you suddenly create a massive over supply the production scales have to reduce which drives up cost. This is what the German transport sector will face. The Uk on the other hand will experience exactly the opposite.
No deal is a good deal for the UK. On top of servicing the internal UK market we will be able to make deals with the rest of the world much faster than the EU and at a larger % GDP than the EU.
Oh and we may also rid ourselves of the estimated (1 million) EDIT: this should read 1 hundred thousand. The EU document I took it from goes on to state that the 1 million figure includes students and unknown. Appologise for the error. EU citizens who are currently unemployed and claiming benefits in the UK. There are virtually no UK citizens doing the same in the EU.
Edited to clarify the 1 million Eu citizens who are not either working or retired.
Some very dubious stats there. 11% of EU citizens here are economically
And of course UK citizens claim benefits in the EU. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu
No deal would give us an immediate and serious economic problem.The vast majority of UK-EU trade is intra-sectorial. We import the same type of goods that we export.
If we were to adopt a restrictive tariff rate then this trade would decline rapidly. The consequences are likely to be a move to servicing domestic markets.
Lets look at the absolute case where EU-UK trade ceases completely.
As the UK is a net importer the market for UK goods will increase where as the EU market would decline. This would create a massive boost for the UK economy while Germany, France, Holland and Belgium would all be stuck with massive overproduction.
This intra-sectorial trade model is part of the EU cartel scheme where it creates economies of scale and therefore reduces manufacturing costs. If you suddenly create a massive over supply the production scales have to reduce which drives up cost. This is what the German transport sector will face. The Uk on the other hand will experience exactly the opposite.
No deal is a good deal for the UK. On top of servicing the internal UK market we will be able to make deals with the rest of the world much faster than the EU and at a larger % GDP than the EU.
Oh and we may also rid ourselves of the estimated (1 million) EDIT: this should read 1 hundred thousand. The EU document I took it from goes on to state that the 1 million figure includes students and unknown. Appologise for the error. EU citizens who are currently unemployed and claiming benefits in the UK. There are virtually no UK citizens doing the same in the EU.
Edited to clarify the 1 million Eu citizens who are not either working or retired.
My stats are from an EU brexit analysts published last month. Not the daily press.Some very dubious stats there. 11% of EU citizens here are economically inactive (17% of Brits). http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4405150/Migrants-hold-one-TEN-jobs-economy.html
And of course UK citizens claim benefits in the EU. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu
There is little to change. We export the same shit that we import. In the service sector it's much the same with some notable exceptions. But to be clear even the EU is not able to properly explain the financial markets as the figures from various national bodies don't tally.No deal would give us an immediate and serious economic problem.
How long before your suggestion that the UK would transform it's economic model to satisfy domestic demand previously supplied from the EU and negotiate extra demand from non EU countries?
For example given that a lot of our exports are service based and our imports manufacture based, I assume that city finance institutions will become manufacturers.Possible but what are the timescales?
Also there is a time lag to agree trade deals with non EU countries and for the benefits of extra trade( if any - remembering we already trade with a lot of these countries) to kick in.
How would we ensure that current domestic demand for EU imports is not simply replaced by imports from non EU countries?
Bottom line is you're proposing a very uncertain long term economic benefit to offset a definite short term problem.