Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[Vic]

She had exceeded her sell-by date. Like a CEO who is great at start-ups but less so at running an established business.

Daft analogy. Start-ups? She was good at killing off manufacturing.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Labour could still maintain the line that they favour leaving the EU, single market, and customs union. But would they vote in favour of accepting a tough divorce bill, if there are a number of Tory rebels prepared to vote against it? Wouldn't they vote it down knowing that would force a general election? Argue that they would re-negotiate a better outcome?

That's May's dilemma. The EU might well serve up an unacceptable divorce bill and May would be stymied, this would be the bad deal is worse than no deal scenario. I'll happily be corrected, but I believe that when Parliament voted to trigger Article 50 they tied their own hands, they have the power to accept a deal or reject it, but not the power to instruct the government to go back and get a better deal. So if Parliament rejects whatever May comes back with then we exit with no deal.

Be in no doubt that we are completely at the mercy of the EU now, whatever blows they may inflict we have to take them. Calmer heads might prevail over time, but the EU will extract as much as they want, they might do so for all sorts of reasons, not least the hope that this whole slow painful process, and it will be painful, will weary the British public in to changing their mind. But that is a vain hope, the Tories are weak and riven but they want to leave and Labour wants to leave but for different reasons.

This is the worst of all worlds for remainers like me, obviously, but for the leavers as well. The best we can hope for is that we'll end up poorer and more isolated in some shitty half way house that satisfies no one.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Part of me wonders if she hoped to lose the election so Labour would be tasked with taking us out, she almost looked like she was trying to throw the election.

It's was like watching 'Brewster's Millions' all over again.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Really? That's the manifesto position but most MPs surely think it's all a big mistake.

Privately that might be the case, but they are all locked in to their parties positions now. The parties are hopelessly divided on the nature of our exit, but not on the exit itself.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

That's May's dilemma. The EU might well serve up an unacceptable divorce bill and May would be stymied, this would be the bad deal is worse than no deal scenario. I'll happily be corrected, but I believe that when Parliament voted to trigger Article 50 they tied their own hands, they have the power to accept a deal or reject it, but not the power to instruct the government to go back and get a better deal. So if Parliament rejects whatever May comes back with then we exit with no deal.

Be in no doubt that we are completely at the mercy of the EU now, whatever blows they may inflict we have to take them. Calmer heads might prevail over time, but the EU will extract as much as they want, they might do so for all sorts of reasons, not least the hope that this whole slow painful process, and it will be painful, will weary the British public in to changing their mind. But that is a vain hope, the Tories are weak and riven but they want to leave and Labour wants to leave but for different reasons.

This is the worst of all worlds for remainers like me, obviously, but for the leavers as well. The best we can hope for is that we'll end up poorer and more isolated in some shitty half way house that satisfies no one.

That's not very optimistic mate, it's sunny warm and my pessimism is as low as the pollen count today.

You have just explained the reasons why we shouldn't allow Brussels to control us because you hint at them possible being vindictive because we voted to leave them and their over zealous political union.

 

[The perfect fumble]

That's not very optimistic mate, it's sunny warm and my pessimism is as low as the pollen count today.

You have just explained the reasons why we shouldn't allow Brussels to control us because you hint at them possible being vindictive because we voted to leave them and their over zealous political union.

We decided to leave the EU and in so doing we weakened it. You might hate the EU but the EU does not hate itself. They have the upper hand in the negotiations and will, quite legitimately, seek to limit the fall out of our exit on the remaining member states, which is as one would expect, there is nothing vindictive about it.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

We decided to leave the EU and in so doing we weakened it. You might hate the EU but the EU does not hate itself. They have the upper hand in the negotiations and will, quite legitimately, seek to limit the fall out of our exit on the remaining member states, which is as one would expect, there is nothing vindictive about it.

They'll harm themselves because they wont want to be seen to give us a fair ride, it could breed unrest in the cells.

 

[The perfect fumble]

They'll harm themselves because they wont want to be seen to give us a fair ride, it could breed unrest in the cells.

It doesn't really matter what their motivation is. if you look at how politics is panning out over on the continent our decision to leave has not been a clarion call to the disaffected, it has had the opposite effect, our fuckwittery has convinced most Europeans to embrace the EU even more, we're the laughing stock of Europe now.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

They'll harm themselves because they wont want to be seen to give us a fair ride, it could breed unrest in the cells.

what do you think they should do that constitutes a 'fair ride'?

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

what do you think they should do that constitutes a 'fair ride'?

It is to be seen what constitutes a rough ride, I don't know their stance as yet but I doubt it'll be anything other than unfair. As and when they make their offers we can decide from there.

 

[The perfect fumble]

It is to be seen what constitutes a rough ride, I don't know their stance as yet but I doubt it'll be anything other than unfair. As and when they make their offers we can decide from there.

"Unfair"

You have to laugh.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

It is to be seen what constitutes a rough ride, I don't know their stance as yet but I doubt it'll be anything other than unfair. As and when they make their offers we can decide from there.

Not the most open-minded opinion!

I expect it will be detrimental to the UK current position, because it has to be. The UK is taking it's bats and balls away, the EU isn't - i's pretty much impossible to imagine why that should work to the UK's advantage.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

Not the most open-minded opinion!

I expect it will be detrimental to the UK current position, because it has to be. The UK is taking it's bats and balls away, the EU isn't - i's pretty much impossible to imagine why that should work to the UK's advantage.

Of course it's open minded nothing in what I have stated infers otherwise. Waiting until we receive their offers before passing judgement is at the very least prudent. If the EU play hardball then so should we and if it ends in a draw and a no deal then so be it.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

"Unfair"

You have to laugh.

There really wasn't a better word to use mate :) But the suggestion that we voted to Brexit and in was unfair isn't lost on me.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Of course it's open minded nothing in what I have stated infers otherwise. Waiting until we receive their offers before passing judgement is at the very least prudent. If the EU play hardball then so should we and if it ends in a draw and a no deal then so be it.

Your starting position was "it won't be fair".

 

[sir baconface]

Daft analogy. Start-ups? She was good at killing off manufacturing.

Many of them were assisted suicides, whilst others were overtaken by globalisation. And, while I don't expect you to agree for one moment, but she was the one who recognised Britain needed to get competitive. Not sure the likes of coal, textiles and British Leyland would be thriving today under any hue of government.

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

Your starting position was "it won't be fair".

Nope, read back. Fumble explains why the EU position will be self serving for the EU I am only stating what he wrote. If the EU are starting at that position then so should we and we should expect a no deal.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Nope, read back. Fumble explains why the EU position will be self serving for the EU I am only stating what he wrote. If the EU are starting at that position then so should we and we should expect a no deal.

"They'll harm themselves because they wont want to be seen to give us a fair ride, it could breed unrest in the cells."

Given you can't define fair, that looks like a statement of starting perspective to me. EDIT: I asked you what you viewed as 'fair' and got a reply about having to see what they offer.

As for what Fumble meant, I'll leave him to answer that. The EU will not be looking to screw the UK; they will want the UK to not be bloodyminded in return, and have a 'no deal' situation which is worse for both sides. The deal made will be fair, as it usually is in this type of thing.

 

[The perfect fumble]

 

[vonkeynotvenky]

"They'll harm themselves because they wont want to be seen to give us a fair ride, it could breed unrest in the cells."

Given you can't define fair, that looks like a statement of starting perspective to me. EDIT: I asked you what you viewed as 'fair' and got a reply about having to see what they offer.

As for what Fumble meant, I'll leave him to answer that. The EU will not be looking to screw the UK; they will want the UK to not be bloodyminded in return, and have a 'no deal' situation which is worse for both sides. The deal made will be fair, as it usually is in this type of thing.

Of course he meant what he meant and I am not criticising him for that. He's not very optimistic about it is he? Leaving the single market leaving the other mechanisms isn't a bad deal for me but it all depends on how tied you are to the EU doesn't it? I'll give up my holiday home in the Cotswolds and 3 foreign holidays a year i'd even give up my daily trips to Waitrose for my bolinger 59 brut if it meant we had more control over this countries affairs and we could be independent. Even if that independence is only a facade.