Astonishing developments in AI

aguero93:20 said:
Biofuel though, not fossil fuel :)


Debatable whether that will ever be possible on this planet on an industrial scale, it's not theory that's holding us back, afaik it's essentially that we don't have a material alloy capable of containing and directing the forces generated for large scale fusion and we haven't figured out what materials we need for one or how to make it. Unfortunately it doesn't seem to be something we can attach a timescale to at the moment.
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Indeed, fusion is no longer a physics problem, it's a materials one. The scale of the materials required and the limitations on what can be used are staggering.
 
Ok, so this does feel a bit weird writing this, but I'm a researcher in machine learning/AI at the university, I work in the medical department. If anyone has any questions about AI, I can give you one informed person's opinion. Main reason I'm writing this is because there's so much bullshit talked about AI in the media, and if anyone wants an opinion from someone who actually works in the area, I'd love to balance out some of the bullshit. (and if no one gives a shit, i'll hold my hands up and shuffle away embarrassed)
 
bluejon said:
Ok, so this does feel a bit weird writing this, but I'm a researcher in machine learning/AI at the university, I work in the medical department. If anyone has any questions about AI, I can give you one informed person's opinion. Main reason I'm writing this is because there's so much bullshit talked about AI in the media, and if anyone wants an opinion from someone who actually works in the area, I'd love to balance out some of the bullshit. (and if no one gives a shit, i'll hold my hands up and shuffle away embarrassed)
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How many years do we have before AI replaces 30% of the labour market?
 
aguero93:20 said:
How many years do we have before AI replaces 30% of the labour market?
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i think i read something like 40% of current employment is likely to be replaced in the next 25 years, and i couldn't be more against most of what's coming. i even wrote to andy burnham to say the council shouldn't even consider the idea of driverless cars if only based on the reason that whilst it sounds all cool and funky, the economic effects that would have on a very large number of families in manchester would be completely disastrous. didn't hear anything back. wasn't surprised. there's more reasons than just that one, but that's the main one
 
bluejon said:
i think i read something like 40% of current employment is likely to be replaced in the next 25 years, and i couldn't be more against most of what's coming. i even wrote to andy burnham to say the council shouldn't even consider the idea of driverless cars if only based on the reason that whilst it sounds all cool and funky, the economic effects that would have on a very large number of families in manchester would be completely disastrous. didn't hear anything back. wasn't surprised. there's more reasons than just that one, but that's the main one
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That's pretty much where I expected it to be to be honest in terms of time. The tipping point is actually going to be somewhere around the 30% mark from an economic point of view where it'll have a drastic enough effect to force a complete rethink of the entire economic system, I was thinking 20-25 years for that.
 
aguero93:20 said:
That's pretty much where I expected it to be to be honest in terms of time. The tipping point is actually going to be somewhere around the 30% mark from an economic point of view where it'll have a drastic enough effect to force a complete rethink of the entire economic system, I was thinking 20-25 years for that.
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It's going to be mad to see how this plays out, and it needs the right people guiding it, which we both know isn't the case at the moment. It is going to change the very nature of what work is in the 21st century. A significant number of middle class jobs are going to be hit by this, which is going to push a majority of middle class earners potentially down into lower paying jobs, whilst the remaining middle class, especially those in the industries creating the change, into much higher brackets. If that isn't managed properly, with a much more progressive tax regime for starters, there's going to be deep trouble. Doing what I do, I'll be one of the ones pushed up, but i would be in favour of a very high rate of tax over certain earnings (talking 90%+) to balance out what will otherwise be a shit show.
 
bluejon said:
It's going to be mad to see how this plays out, and it needs the right people guiding it, which we both know isn't the case at the moment. It is going to change the very nature of what work is in the 21st century. A significant number of middle class jobs are going to be hit by this, which is going to push a majority of middle class earners potentially down into lower paying jobs, whilst the remaining middle class, especially those in the industries creating the change, into much higher brackets. If that isn't managed properly, with a much more progressive tax regime for starters, there's going to be deep trouble. Doing what I do, I'll be one of the ones pushed up, but i would be in favour of a very high rate of tax over certain earnings (talking 90%+) to balance out what will otherwise be a shit show.
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I don't think it's going to be pleasant getting there tbh, but the destination will eventually be worth getting to.
I'm in the same boat, there's too much abstract thinking involved in my job for it to be replaced until the very end.
I don't think income tax changes would be anything but a plaster on a gaping wound though, the % of jobs taken is only going to rise so the % of tax would have to keep rising in return. Eventually it's going to take full or near full public ownership of all companies to provide for all the unemployed.
I also think some of the biggest drivers behind the changes needed will surprise many, initially the wealthiest in society will need to preserve the spending power of the rest in order to continue accumulating wealth themselves (this is where the 30% figure comes from) so they'll push for universal income, after all the ego of achievement is more important at a certain level of wealth than the actual wealth.

It'll be fascinating anyway, whatever happens.
 
D'you mind if i ask what you do?

And i'm shitting myself at the prospect of the current set of clowns being in charge when it happens, and I don't just mean the Tory party. This was one of the main reason I came to realise Corbyn is a twat. I originally liked where Corbyn was coming from, but the final straw for me was something associated with this discussion, when i finally accepted that no, he's an ultra bellend who doesn't have a clue. When he first go the leadership, do you remember when McDonnell did his economics forums, on tour etc. Had some of the current crop of economists, including mariana mazzucato who gave an amazing talk on how AI was going to change things. One of the main themes of the whole series of lectures was how the economy needs to be ready for the advent of AI, it got mentioned when they came to mcr with paul mason. Brilliant, it was one of the reasons i was so hopeful of corbyn because they were discussing something i care deeply about, and how the days of full employment are over and we need to plan for it. When they had the coup, and tried to get rid of him, what was number one on the list of 'things jeremy will do if he is voted in as leader'? Full employment. He'd ignored the main theme of the lectures his own fucking shadow chancellor had been giving and chose to write something fluffy instead.
 
bluejon said:
D'you mind if i ask what you do?

And i'm shitting myself at the prospect of the current set of clowns being in charge when it happens, and I don't just mean the Tory party. This was one of the main reason I came to realise Corbyn is a twat. I originally liked where Corbyn was coming from, but the final straw for me was something associated with this discussion, when i finally accepted that no, he's an ultra bellend who doesn't have a clue. When he first go the leadership, do you remember when McDonnell did his economics forums, on tour etc. Had some of the current crop of economists, including mariana mazzucato who gave an amazing talk on how AI was going to change things. One of the main themes of the whole series of lectures was how the economy needs to be ready for the advent of AI, it got mentioned when they came to mcr with paul mason. Brilliant, it was one of the reasons i was so hopeful of corbyn because they were discussing something i care deeply about, and how the days of full employment are over and we need to plan for it. When they had the coup, and tried to get rid of him, what was number one on the list of 'things jeremy will do if he is voted in as leader'? Full employment. He'd ignored the main theme of the lectures his own fucking shadow chancellor had been giving and chose to write something fluffy instead.
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I'm an accountant by trade mate, don't understand the minutiae of what the engineers are doing but I've a better idea than most what the company and industry is targeting and the direction that things are moving and our entire brief on the projects front these days revolves around reducing clients' reliance on human labour and human interfaces between customers and clients and different parts of clients businesses. These aren't low skill or menial industries or tasks we're looking at either, that ship has sailed on our front and it's just up to companies to put the tech there in place.
I'm in Ireland mate so thankfully not as affected by the changes in the UK at the minute, we're not planning for it too well either. Full paid and profitable employment will be a pipe dream very soon, we simply haven't prepared workers for the paradigm shift from education onwards, we should be looking at other ways of reassigning people and supporting the unemployed tbh.
 
aguero93:20 said:
I'm an accountant by trade mate, don't understand the minutiae of what the engineers are doing but I've a better idea than most what the company and industry is targeting and the direction that things are moving and our entire brief on the projects front these days revolves around reducing clients' reliance on human labour and human interfaces between customers and clients and different parts of clients businesses. These aren't low skill or menial industries or tasks we're looking at either, that ship has sailed on our front and it's just up to companies to put the tech there in place.
I'm in Ireland mate so thankfully not as affected by the changes in the UK at the minute, we're not planning for it too well either. Full paid and profitable employment will be a pipe dream very soon, we simply haven't prepared workers for the paradigm shift from education onwards, we should be looking at other ways of reassigning people and supporting the unemployed tbh.
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Fair play lad, very much on the same page. Machine learning has some incredible potential, I spent a year working on a project to help diagnose early stage dementia from MRI scan data, and we got some very good early results (on a new project automating the annotation of bones in x-rays), but the economic change defo needs to be managed right. The major problem is it will be capital interests driving the change, we need strong government to ensure balance. And there goes the flying pig.
 
bluejon said:
Fair play lad, very much on the same page. Machine learning has some incredible potential, I spent a year working on a project to help diagnose early stage dementia from MRI scan data, and we got some very good early results (on a new project automating the annotation of bones in x-rays), but the economic change defo needs to be managed right. The major problem is it will be capital interests driving the change, we need strong government to ensure balance. And there goes the flying pig.
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That's the thing from our end, we're only beginning to introduce the machine learning end of things into strategic planning, it's still all algorithm and repetition, it's going to be a real game changer as far as I can see.
On top of that it's one of a few things, we also have 3D printing which is capable of completely rewriting the rules on manufacturing and the unavoidable fact that the major corporations are getting to the level where they're big enough to start bullying governments.
 
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