booking next years holidays with brexit coming

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Same everywhere mate..... record levels of employment here in the UK but the Government are unable to take enough income tax to pay for services

I know. Full employment and wages going down? It’s parallel universe economics, is that..

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Legal ass covering. Insurance contracts had a Y2K exclusion for the millennium bug. No one really expected anything to happen and a lot of people did a lot of work to ensure it didn’t happen but no one wanted to be on the hook for compo if it did happen.

Isn’t that the point though? Y2K, an awful lot of people did an awful lot of stuff to make sure it didn’t happen. Then, when it didn’t happen, everyone just assumed it had all been made up! The reason Brexit and it’s likely portents of gloom will happen, is because government haven’t had an awful lot of people, doing an awful lot of stuff, to make sure it doesn’t happen!

 

[mcfc1632]

Isn’t that the point though? Y2K, an awful lot of people did an awful lot of stuff to make sure it didn’t happen. Then, when it didn’t happen, everyone just assumed it had all been made up! The reason Brexit and it’s likely portents of gloom will happen, is because government haven’t had an awful lot of people, doing an awful lot of stuff, to make sure it doesn’t happen!

An awful lot of companies and people made an awful lot of money being commissioned to undertake work that turned out to be unnecessary.

Bob is right on this point - people just did not want to be responsible - just in case. Loads of the 'preventative work' was just nugatory but fortunes were spent.

 

[west didsblue]

An awful lot of companies and people made an awful lot of money being commissioned to undertake work that turned out to be unnecessary.

Bob is right on this point - people just did not want to be responsible - just in case. Loads of the 'preventative work' was just nugatory but fortunes were spent.

Plenty of the Y2K work wasn't nugatory though and until the work was done, it wasn't known whether it was nugatory.

 

[BobKowalski]

Isn’t that the point though? Y2K, an awful lot of people did an awful lot of stuff to make sure it didn’t happen. Then, when it didn’t happen, everyone just assumed it had all been made up! The reason Brexit and it’s likely portents of gloom will happen, is because government haven’t had an awful lot of people, doing an awful lot of stuff, to make sure it doesn’t happen!

To a degree yes as we have made little or no prep for life beyond March 2019 but that just makes it hard for Parliament to vote down a Withdrawal Agreement which is what May is banking on. It’s her WA deal or chaos. If Parliament does vote it down or the Govt fails to reach agreement its still not a binary choice between deal or chaos as in lieu of a Withdrawal Agreement we will be obliged to do lots temporary deals to keep the country functioning which will cost us more in the long run but the country will still function. Alternatively both sides will agree an extension to Article 50 and keep on negotiating. I honestly don’t see any scenario where the UK actually grinds to a halt.

What the Govt’s technical notices actually do us highlight how dependent we are on international treaties and agreements and how deeply the UK economy and administrative structure is embedded in the EU. In my view it’s so deeply embedded we will never get away from EU economic gravity. The ‘best’ we will get is some kind of distance that will allow for some nominal ability to do some sectoral trade agreements but not far enough away that it seriously tests the UK economy. We currently have the best optimal trade deal with the EU and via the EU with the rest of the world. Everything we are doing now is sub-optimal which is why it’s so difficult to get any consensus in the UK. There simply isn’t one Brexit option that everyone can agree on and that makes economic sense.

Brexit is a mandate that no one can ignore and an approach to Brexit that cannot go well.

 

[mcfc1632]

Plenty of the Y2K work wasn't nugatory though and until the work was done, it wasn't known whether it was nugatory.

I can certainly accept that some of the work was required - and I can certainly accept that decision makers in companies and government did not know if the work was necessary or not until afterwards - so I largely agree with you.

I do not want to disrupt the thread - but it is also true that there was a whole heap of work undertaken that was known to be likely nugatory and that the fears and uncertainties of decision makers were exploited.

Also - at the time there was a whole industry of IT people using the concern to achieve major investment.

Personally I remember a meeting in which I persuaded a Senior Civil Servant to commit to £millions of remedial work on key systems to ensure that there was no disruption in the payment of benefits. In that meeting one of his junior staff came up with the entirely sound idea of making manual preparations to replicate payments in line with the way they had been paid in the weeks before 31/12/99 and handle new claimants. That would allow for an assessment and either the undertaking of required remedial work and/or a reconciliation.

A very sensible idea, but the SCS fella just did not want to take the risk of being the person to make that decision - thankfully as my year-end target and associated bonus were on the line.

A lot of sensible contingency planning was not progressed due to unfounded insecurity.​

Anyway - back on topic - my confidence that flights will be running after 31/03/19 comes from not only my views that it is mainly wilful Remainer hysteria but also because a good friend who is a BA pilot and Remain supporter, also shares that view.

 

[west didsblue]

I can certainly accept that some of the work was required - and I can certainly accept that decision makers in companies and government did not know if the work was necessary or not until afterwards - so I largely agree with you.

I do not want to disrupt the thread - but it is also true that there was a whole heap of work undertaken that was known to be likely nugatory and that the fears and uncertainties of decision makers were exploited.

Also - at the time there was a whole industry of IT people using the concern to achieve major investment.

Personally I remember a meeting in which I persuaded a Senior Civil Servant to commit to £millions of remedial work on key systems to ensure that there was no disruption in the payment of benefits. In that meeting one of his junior staff came up with the entirely sound idea of making manual preparations to continue payments in line with the way they had been taken in the weeks before 31/12/99 and handle new claimants. That would allow for an assessment and either the undertaking of required remedial work and/or a reconciliation.

Probably sensible idea, but the SCS fella just did not want to take the risk of being the person to make that decision - thankfully as my year-end target and associated bonus were on the line.

Anyway - back on topic - my confidence that flights will be running after 31/03/19 comes from not only my views that it is mainly wilful Remainer hysteria but also because a good friend who is a BA pilot and Remain supporter, also shares that view.

I too share the view that flights won't be disrupted. There may be some short term disruption at airports when the passport control arrangements change.
The main effect of a no-deal Brexit will be related to supply chain costs and delays which should not be underestimated.

 

[mcfc1632]

I too share the view that flights won't be disrupted. There may be some short term disruption at airports when the passport control arrangements change.
The main effect of a no-deal Brexit will be related to supply chain costs and delays which should not be underestimated.

Fully agree again.

I have been one of those saying for over 2 years that all sectors should be preparing for a No-Deal Brexit and that it will not be until that lose-lose situation is deemed to have viable potential that we will see movement in the negotiations.

But the lack of/delay in making plans and preparations has been a disgrace - but all that is something for the Brexit thread.

 

[Henkeman]

Fully agree again.

I have been one of those saying for over 2 years that all sectors should be preparing for a No-Deal Brexit and that it will not be until that lose-lose situation is deemed to have viable potential that we will see movement in the negotiations.

But the lack of/delay in making plans and preparations has been a disgrace - but all that is something for the Brexit thread.

To be fair, while it's been anything but done well, there has been a lot more preparation than the media would have you believe. Aviation is a good example where it's pretty much all done and ready to go on that technical level, but there's virtually no coverage of that - it doesn't make a good story.

 

[west didsblue]

Fully agree again.

I have been one of those saying for over 2 years that all sectors should be preparing for a No-Deal Brexit and that it will not be until that lose-lose situation is deemed to have viable potential that we will see movement in the negotiations.

But the lack of/delay in making plans and preparations has been a disgrace - but all that is something for the Brexit thread.

Whatever preparations are made, and I'm sure companies will have some contingency plans, the introduction of customs checks on all European imports will have a huge impact unless the government were to invest multiple billions on the infrastructure to cope with it. Even if they did that, there would be no getting around the increased costs to industry and the consequent price rises for many goods.