Budget 2024

[metalblue]

And yet Boris Johnson was the most disingenuous and arrogant bastard you could ever hope to meet.

So if you lack any credibilty, honesty, or decency, vote Tory. They absolutely only care about themselves.

Whom got fired, led to a complete break down in party discipline, and were unelectable come next election. Its not really much of a bar your setting yourself there.

 

[metalblue]

The farmer featured on the bbc news today they said farms 500 acres in Somerset. Out of curiosity I looked up prices for the region and, depending on whether it's arable or pasture and prime to poor, I did a fag packet calculation that suggested the land was worth between £3.5 - £5.5m. His sole argument for remaining exempt seemed to be that he was a custodian of the countryside. It didn't strike me as an argument that would win many people over.

Asset rich, cash poor. If that’s arable wheat they’ll be lucky to make £80k profit - they won’t be able to mortgage their way out of IHT liability on that income.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Charities say the budget will cost them £1.4bn, which for NFP organisations with limited scope for rising prices is a big deal.

Because they’ll have to pay more out, we will give them less, or will they lose on property/land that they own?

 

[threespires]

Asset rich, cash poor. If that’s arable wheat they’ll be lucky to make £80k profit - they won’t be able to mortgage their way out of IHT liability on that income.

I guess it all boils down to how much land would have to be sold off to cover the liability and to who and for what subsequent purpose. Haven't seen any analysis of that yet.

It's too big a subject here but because I thought your number sounded low (it's not) I did a bit of investigation and found myself on farmers forums. Was a real eye opener, even accounting for the huge pinch of salt you need to apply to any internet forum. Whilst I knew we had a rural v urban divide in the UK that has got bigger in the last couple of decades, as it has in other countries too, I don't think I'd realised how big it was in so many different dimensions.

 

[Manc in London]

Currencies always decline on perceived or actual reductions in interest rates - it’s the nature of the markets - you pay them less they’ll want to hold assets of someone who is paying them more (and who isn’t a basket case) thus they sell your currency and buy theirs.

What would be concerning is increasing yields and a decreasing currency. That signals some loss of confidence in the economic direction of a country.

I knew. I have a degree in economics :)

I was simply making the point that a comment from the Governor of the BoE had a more substantial impact, even though the decision is made by the MPC.

 

[metalblue]

I knew. I have a degree in economics :)

I was simply making the point that a comment from the Governor of the BoE had a more substantial impact, even though the decision is made by the MPC.

Gotcha, I don’t think anyone need be especially concerned yet. Our borrowing costs are going to be a little higher but it’s all fairly orderly.

 

[metalblue]

I guess it all boils down to how much land would have to be sold off to cover the liability and to who and for what subsequent purpose. Haven't seen any analysis of that yet.

It's too big a subject here but because I thought your number sounded low (it's not) I did a bit of investigation and found myself on farmers forums. Was a real eye opener, even accounting for the huge pinch of salt you need to apply to any internet forum. Whilst I knew we had a rural v urban divide in the UK that has got bigger in the last couple of decades, as it has in other countries too, I don't think I'd realised how big it was in so many different dimensions.

The problem I foresee with selling smaller parcels of land is it reduces the economies of scale for smaller independent farmers - this in turn reduces our food production - it’ll need wholesale farm sales to the big monolithic farming companies. That lack of divestment feels like it’ll create monopolies- unintended consequences and all that.

Anyway it’s a moot point as I think Trust funds are about to do a roaring trade to avoid IHT.

 

[Manc in London]

Gotcha, I don’t think anyone need be especially concerned yet. Our borrowing costs are going to be a little higher but it’s all fairly orderly.

My view too.

I would expect any budget with higher costs for business and increased spend on public services to generate a slight ripple in currency value.

I believe what most people are missing is that the main growth element the Government are focusing on in the medium term is through changes to planning reforms. It will also be interesting to see the final details in the sector elements of the industrial strategy.

I am particularly interested in the the publication of the Artificial Intelligence Opportunities Action Plans that will set out the roadmap to maximise opportunities of AI to enhance growth and productivity and to improve delivery of public services. This could be a much needed game changer for the public sector.