Budget 2024

[bluenova]

Markets haven’t taken the Budget well, and what we’ve seen is a direct response to the new borrowing profile outlined by Reeves, as well as concerns around how businesses will react to a very large tax squeeze and a step up in interest rates.

The fact that Starmer has felt the need to write in the FT today - the article itself has obviously been cobbled together at short notice - only highlights the government’s concerns around the market fallout.

Considering the size of the tax rises, and borrowing projections, the reaction has been fairly muted.

Even the fabled 10 year gilts are lower than they were for most of last Summer, while the FTSE is up since the budget. Both changes are not especially dramatic, and I suspect Reeves and Starmer are probably reasonably happy to have got through that budget without any major upheaval so far.

 

[bluenova]

YCMIU ......even If you really really tried


View attachment 137119

The Telegraph has become almost indistinguishable from the Daily Mash.

I saw this shared on X, and the first comment suggested they cut down on take out coffee and avocado on toast :)

 

[west didsblue]

Markets haven’t taken the Budget well, and what we’ve seen is a direct response to the new borrowing profile outlined by Reeves, as well as concerns around how businesses will react to a very large tax squeeze and a step up in interest rates.

The fact that Starmer has felt the need to write in the FT today - the article itself has obviously been cobbled together at short notice - only highlights the government’s concerns around the market fallout.

Do you actually believe the rubbish you post? Markets are down 0.83% in the last week which is well within normal variations any week. The budget was already pretty much baked in and accepted.

 

[Manc in London]

I was just putting out an update for the poster who seemed delighted at an initial knee-jerk market reaction.

A few, especially the weird, alt right, conspiracy theory freaks on Twitter, were running with it for a day or so

 

[Manc in London]

It's an interest rate / gilt yield story, not an exchange rate story.

The pound recovered against the dollar today because the US employment data were far worse than expected, which caused the spike in the chart you posted.

The impact on gilt yields and expectations around Bank Rate has persisted; this is the story given the risk of a persistently higher government borrowing costs, which require further tax increases and / or borrowing.

It's just the way the financial markets. Reeves' budget has not had a devastating impact on Britain's finances. It's wishful thinking (a bit weird) to think otherwise.

Nit quite sure the US employment figures were a massive surprise following the hurricane they have just dealt with. It hardly led to a significant change in outlook.

 

[Blue and true]

The Telegraph has become almost indistinguishable from the Daily Mash.

I saw this shared on X, and the first comment suggested they cut down on take out coffee and avocado on toast :)

They should probably cut down on gobbling up property after property like life is a monopoly board. People like this are the reason the housing market is impermeable for most young people.

 

[Brewster's millions]

Do you actually believe the rubbish you post? Markets are down 0.83% in the last week which is well within normal variations any week. The budget was already pretty much baked in and accepted.

View attachment 137134

Why are you talking about equities when the pertinent issue is how gilt yields have reacted to the higher issuance outlook, and how the higher borrowing costs feed back into the OBR’s projections?

You advertise your ignorance and lack of knowledge with every post.

 

[Brewster's millions]

It's just the way the financial markets. Reeves' budget has not had a devastating impact on Britain's finances. It's wishful thinking (a bit weird) to think otherwise.

Nit quite sure the US employment figures were a massive surprise following the hurricane they have just dealt with. It hardly led to a significant change in outlook.

No one is suggesting that the Budget has had a devastating impact on the fiscal position. Rather that the borrowing projections have increased by more than expected, with the market reacting in turn. The fact the OBR only expected the Budget to boost gilt yields by 25bp is an issue given that we’ve already seen an increase of that scale.

Unfortunately acknowledging that market reaction, which is undeniable and has led Starmer to write an article in the FT today reiterating his intention to push through reforms across public services, is simply a step too far for many on here.

The payrolls figures were 100k below expectations by the way, so they were a surprise and they did move the dollar.

 

[Hertzblue]

Just this really

 

[west didsblue]

Why are you talking about equities when the pertinent issue is how gilt yields have reacted to the higher issuance outlook, and how the higher borrowing costs feed back into the OBR’s projections?

You advertise your ignorance and lack of knowledge with every post.

Let’s see what gilt yields are in a month or two when things settle down. Also the dollar exchange rate has gone from $1.30 to $1.29. Hardly earth shattering.