Budget 2024

Brewster's millions said:
Why are you talking about equities when the pertinent issue is how gilt yields have reacted to the higher issuance outlook, and how the higher borrowing costs feed back into the OBR’s projections?

You advertise your ignorance and lack of knowledge with every post.
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Pot
meet
kettle
 
west didsblue said:
Let’s see what gilt yields are in a month or two when things settle down. Also the dollar exchange rate has gone from $1.30 to $1.29. Hardly earth shattering.
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Pure guesswork but won't the majority of the markets in the world right now be shakey as fuck wondering what happens next week in the US?
 
bluenova said:
The Telegraph has become almost indistinguishable from the Daily Mash.

I saw this shared on X, and the first comment suggested they cut down on take out coffee and avocado on toast :)
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It’s a shame to see a newspaper of record descend to the level of the Mail or Express.
Although it has always leaned right and been Tory supporting, it was in most part factual with considered opinions. It’s now gone full culture war anti-woke wibbling nonsense. It reflects the way the country has been divided utilising mainstream and social media to further the agenda of a few billionaires.
 
Brewster's millions said:
No one is suggesting that the Budget has had a devastating impact on the fiscal position. Rather that the borrowing projections have increased by more than expected, with the market reacting in turn. The fact the OBR only expected the Budget to boost gilt yields by 25bp is an issue given that we’ve already seen an increase of that scale.

Unfortunately acknowledging that market reaction, which is undeniable and has led Starmer to write an article in the FT today reiterating his intention to push through reforms across public services, is simply a step too far for many on here.

The payrolls figures were 100k below expectations by the way, so they were a surprise and they did move the dollar.
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The problem, as I see it, is the markets have seen an increase of over £140bn in borrowing this Parliament and huge tax rises but with lower growth forecasted compared to before the budget. Now Labour will argue that the growth predictions are wrong but that’s a worry. There are two key concerns here, firstly how much Reeves has front loaded public spending for the first 2 years with austerity in all but name for the remaining 2 years before the next GE - that’s not going to promote growth. More money doesn’t mean more output, we’ve all seen that the NHS has a 17% increase in funding, increases in staffing yet only a 1% increase in output. This is why talk of reform become practical actions is central to this. Secondly how much of this becomes structural leading to more tax rises / increased borrowing without returns on growth - the main problem in her in-tray is she needs to agree multi year department settlements next spring before any of the reform improvements have manifested themselves - it’s a shot in the dark at that point and markets are concerned there isn’t a plan, albeit they can see the making of one. Labour have pinned their flag to the growth mast, so far it doesn’t look encouraging but time will tell.

If this goes tits up then the tories are going to take a flame thrower to this public spending spree. They’ll get blamed for austerity and the whole circus goes again. Anyway fingers crossed is does work - god knows we need it.
 
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