Champions League 2016/17: Playoff Round - Steaua Bucharest

[cptaidan88]

@Prestwich_Blue did a mathematical study of certain teams not playing each other in the tournament and proved quite the opposite. The thread will be around here somewhere.

Again, the draw is not rigged. I haven't seen PBs analysis so can't comment directly but I'm not surprised that certain teams generally avoid each other. Presumably Real Madrid haven't played Barcelona very often. How many times have English sides played each other before the semi finals?

In theory, 4 pots of 8 teams would mean you would have a 1 in 4096 chance of correctly predicting our group. I'm not good enough at maths to tell you what the actual chances are, but we all realise you've got a better chance than that because of the TV Pairings. I'd guess it is somewhere around 1 in 2000.

However a fix suggests that only one possible outcome has been left, and it has been done with malicious intent. Ask yourselves why? What do UEFA gain from screwing us over? Its in your heads boys and girls.

The reality is we are going to get a difficult team in Pot 1. There is a good chance of getting a difficult team in Pot 3 and Pot 4 too. It does not mean that its been pre-determined or orchestrated though!

If the aim is to win the thing (and it should be) it doesn't matter who we get. Can we not go back to complaining about the pies rather than the Agenda?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

will the dates and fixtures be set in stone or is there any chance of changes / switches after draw is made?

In as far as it's one a week on Tues/Weds 16th/17th and 23rd/24th, yes.
I expect the dates to be announced pretty soon after the draw.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

@Prestwich_Blue did a mathematical study of certain teams not playing each other in the tournament and proved quite the opposite. The thread will be around here somewhere.

I think he proved it was highly unlikely the way the draw has worked out in the KO stages.
He hasn't proved rigging, and didn't address the group stages.

 

[St.Pauli support]

In as far as it's one a week on Tues/Weds 16th/17th and 23rd/24th, yes.
I expect the dates to be announced pretty soon after the draw.

The draw itself will not tell you if City play Tue+Wed or Wed+Tue. I guess the clubs and maybe media officials have to agree on the match dates.
Last year the 'champions' route has been drawn first, followed by the 'league' route (City).

Last year 'Champions' and 'League' route didn't play seperated on Tue and Wed. So I guess they have to find an agreement after the draw.
Anybody knowing more about that procedure?

But once the matches are scheduled later tomorrow there won't be any changes afterwords - normally.

 

[mat]

Again, the draw is not rigged. I haven't seen PBs analysis so can't comment directly but I'm not surprised that certain teams generally avoid each other. Presumably Real Madrid haven't played Barcelona very often. How many times have English sides played each other before the semi finals?

In theory, 4 pots of 8 teams would mean you would have a 1 in 4096 chance of correctly predicting our group. I'm not good enough at maths to tell you what the actual chances are, but we all realise you've got a better chance than that because of the TV Pairings. I'd guess it is somewhere around 1 in 2000.

However a fix suggests that only one possible outcome has been left, and it has been done with malicious intent. Ask yourselves why? What do UEFA gain from screwing us over? Its in your heads boys and girls.

The reality is we are going to get a difficult team in Pot 1. There is a good chance of getting a difficult team in Pot 3 and Pot 4 too. It does not mean that its been pre-determined or orchestrated though!

If the aim is to win the thing (and it should be) it doesn't matter who we get. Can we not go back to complaining about the pies rather than the Agenda?

I think he proved it was highly unlikely the way the draw has worked out in the KO stages.
He hasn't proved rigging, and didn't address the group stages.

I stand corrected.
:)

 

[aka blue jambo]

The draw itself will not tell you if City play Tue+Wed or Wed+Tue. I guess the clubs and maybe media officials have to agree on the match dates.
Last year the 'champions' route has been drawn first, followed by the 'league' route (City).

Last year 'Champions' and 'League' route didn't play seperated on Tue and Wed. So I guess they have to find an agreement after the draw.
Anybody knowing more about that procedure?

But once the matches are scheduled later tomorrow there won't be any changes afterwords - normally.

its easier from Edinburgh

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I stand corrected.
:)

It had drifted onto group stages, and there's no guarantee about how tough a group will turn out. City had a tough one last season which they won, and Utd were amusing.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Again, the draw is not rigged. I haven't seen PBs analysis so can't comment directly but I'm not surprised that certain teams generally avoid each other.

I simulated a random QF draw, with 3 "big" teams (Barca, Bayern, Real) and 5 "others", to see what the probability was of all three avoiding each other at this stage, as they have done for the last 5 seasons.



At its most simplistic, there are 28 combinations of 2 from 8 and 3 of those 28 of those would involve a "big three" tie. So there's an 89% chance that there won't be a tie involving two of the big three in any single draw on that basis.

But the actual calculation is much more complicated than that as the probabilities change every time you draw a ball. I think I worked out that there was a 4.5% chance of this happening over a 5 year period but it was so convoluted that I can't actually follow my own calculation now. I'm going to have another look at it to check.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Again, the draw is not rigged. I haven't seen PBs analysis so can't comment directly but I'm not surprised that certain teams generally avoid each other. Presumably Real Madrid haven't played Barcelona very often. How many times have English sides played each other before the semi finals?

In theory, 4 pots of 8 teams would mean you would have a 1 in 4096 chance of correctly predicting our group. I'm not good enough at maths to tell you what the actual chances are, but we all realise you've got a better chance than that because of the TV Pairings. I'd guess it is somewhere around 1 in 2000.

However a fix suggests that only one possible outcome has been left, and it has been done with malicious intent. Ask yourselves why? What do UEFA gain from screwing us over? Its in your heads boys and girls.

The reality is we are going to get a difficult team in Pot 1. There is a good chance of getting a difficult team in Pot 3 and Pot 4 too. It does not mean that its been pre-determined or orchestrated though!

If the aim is to win the thing (and it should be) it doesn't matter who we get. Can we not go back to complaining about the pies rather than the Agenda?

It used to be heavily rigged against the lowest seeded team, but from last season they removed the TV pairs and added automatic pot 1 deployment for the champions. TV now helps decide the match running order rather than rigging the draw itself.

It's a major improvement (IF WE GET THROUGH THE QUALIFYING ROUND) this year as we will not be one of 3 pot 2 teams - just Us & Arsenal.
We got a relatively bad draw last year but only because Borussia Munchengladbach from pot 4 could only be put in our group (the other remaining group had a German Team in it).
If we come out first there will be 1 of 7 groups to be in, 2nd 1 of 6 rather than the 1 in 5 we got last year

 

[MillionMilesAway]

It used to be heavily rigged against the lowest seeded team, but from last season they removed the TV pairs and added automatic pot 1 deployment for the champions. TV now helps decide the match running order rather than rigging the draw itself.

It's a major improvement (IF WE GET THROUGH THE QUALIFYING ROUND) this year as we will not be one of 3 pot 2 teams - just Us & Arsenal.
We got a relatively bad draw last year but only because we were the last english team drawn from pot 2.
If we come out first there will be 1 of 7 groups to be in, 2nd 1 of 6 rather than the 1 in 5 we got last year

Didn't realise they'd dropped the pairings - that's a good thing.