Champions League group permutations

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kennycar

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Just been working out all the possible permutations of our group games and it's a bit complicated (mathematicaly Villarreal could still finish top), but it basically boils down to:

For us another 9 points guarantees qualification, 9 points and a win by a margin of greater than 2 against Munich guarantees top of the group. (remember head-to-head points, difference, goals, total difference, total goals decide tie breaks in that order).

Another 7 points almost guarantees qualification; The only chance of us not going through with another 7 points is where everyone beats Villareal, we beat Napoli and draw to Munich and Napoli beat Munich, in which case 3 teams finish on 11 points and the 3-way tiebreaker would have all three level on points against the other two, therefore goal difference (in games not involving Villarreal) would come into it next.

7 points where the draw is against Villarreal or Napoli guarantees qualification.

Lastly 6 points guarantees qualification IF they are against Napoli and Munich AND we beat Munich by a margin greater than 2. Nothing else will guarantee qualification.

All these permutations are considering the worst (for us) possible outcomes in the other games, ie especially that Villarreal lose every other game. Hopefully Villarreal take points off Napoli or Munich, or Munich beat Napoli and make it easier for us.

Edit: Thanks Corky.
 
I know, I'm quite sad, but someone might be interested if they are as dull as me.
;)
 
Way too complicated.
Napoli will be hard to break.
It'll be over by the time we play Bayern.
If we don't win tomorrow it'll be hard.

Simple.
 
kennycar said:
Just been working out all the possible permutations of our group games and it's a bit complicated (mathematicaly Villarreal could still finish top), but it basically boils down to:

For us another 9 points guarantees qualification, 9 points and a 3 - 1 or 4 - 2 etc win (or a margin of greater than 2) aginst Munich guarantees top of the group. (remember head-to-head points, difference, goals, total difference, total goals decide tie breaks in that order).

Another 7 points almost guarantees qualification; The only chance of us not going through with another 7 points is where everyone beats Villareal, we beat Napoli and draw to Munich and Napoli beat Munich, in which case 3 teams finish on 11 points and the 3-way tiebreaker would have all three level on points against the other two, therefore goal difference (in games not involving Villarreal) would come into it next.

7 points where the draw is against Villarreal or Napoli guarantees qualification.

Lastly 6 points guarantees qualification IF they are against Napoli and Munich AND we beat Munich 3 -1 or 4 -2 etc (or by a margin greater than 2). Nothing else will guarantee qualification.

All these permutations are considering the worst (for us) possible outcomes in the other games, ie especially that Villarreal lose every other game. Hopefully Villarreal take points off Napoli or Munich, or Munich beat Napoli and make it easier for us.
Click to expand...

If we beat BM 3-1 or 4-2 they would beat us on head to head i.e. 3-3 or 4-4 with them having the only away goal/s.
 
should we win tomorrow whether we qualify or not depends on the Napoli match. Whether we beat them or draw them Bayern will be in great position if not already qualified, rendering their match against us meaningless (for them). I think we'll take all 3 points against them at ours.

we really need Bayern to defeat Napoli tomorrow.
 
Corky said:
kennycar said:
Just been working out all the possible permutations of our group games and it's a bit complicated (mathematicaly Villarreal could still finish top), but it basically boils down to:

For us another 9 points guarantees qualification, 9 points and a 3 - 1 or 4 - 2 etc win (or a margin of greater than 2) aginst Munich guarantees top of the group. (remember head-to-head points, difference, goals, total difference, total goals decide tie breaks in that order).

Another 7 points almost guarantees qualification; The only chance of us not going through with another 7 points is where everyone beats Villareal, we beat Napoli and draw to Munich and Napoli beat Munich, in which case 3 teams finish on 11 points and the 3-way tiebreaker would have all three level on points against the other two, therefore goal difference (in games not involving Villarreal) would come into it next.

7 points where the draw is against Villarreal or Napoli guarantees qualification.

Lastly 6 points guarantees qualification IF they are against Napoli and Munich AND we beat Munich 3 -1 or 4 -2 etc (or by a margin greater than 2). Nothing else will guarantee qualification.

All these permutations are considering the worst (for us) possible outcomes in the other games, ie especially that Villarreal lose every other game. Hopefully Villarreal take points off Napoli or Munich, or Munich beat Napoli and make it easier for us.
Click to expand...

If we beat BM 3-1 or 4-2 they would beat us on head to head i.e. 3-3 or 4-4 with them having the only away goal/s.
Click to expand...
Damn, correct although I don't think it goes to away goals (or until after all the other tie-breakers at least) I'll edit the original post.
 
Ten points seems to put teams through most of the time anyway. I would take 9 points with a 2-2 in Napoli right now.
 
Corky said:
Ten points seems to put teams through most of the time anyway. I would take 9 points with a 2-2 in Napoli right now.
Click to expand...
Usually, yes. I just don't think anyone else will drop points against Villarreal with all their injuries and poor league form.<br /><br />-- Wed Nov 02, 2011 12:31 am --<br /><br />
Andouble said:
should we win tomorrow whether we qualify or not depends on the Napoli match. Whether we beat them or draw them Bayern will be in great position if not already qualified, rendering their match against us meaningless (for them). I think we'll take all 3 points against them at ours.

we really need Bayern to defeat Napoli tomorrow.
Click to expand...
agreed. Come on City!

Nighty night.
 
kennycar said:
Corky said:
Ten points seems to put teams through most of the time anyway. I would take 9 points with a 2-2 in Napoli right now.
Click to expand...
Usually, yes. I just don't think anyone else will drop points against Villarreal with all their injuries and poor league form.
Click to expand...

If we beat Villareal tomoz then its highly likely that they will loose all their games - its going to be a tough group to get through
 
Villareal were not easy at home , it will be a lot harder today.

If we beat them then Napoli still have to go there. It will be a massive face saving exercise to beat Napoli last game.

Like Blackburn in the Champion League, they were out after 4 games then won 4-1 their last game at home.
 
Corky said:
Villareal were not easy at home , it will be a lot harder today.

If we beat them then Napoli still have to go there. It will be a massive face saving exercise to beat Napoli last game.

Like Blackburn in the Champion League, they were out after 4 games then won 4-1 their last game at home.
Click to expand...

Thought Napoli's game against Villareal was at home in Naples - might be wrong mind
 
Corky said:
Villareal were not easy at home , it will be a lot harder today.

If we beat them then Napoli still have to go there. It will be a massive face saving exercise to beat Napoli last game.

Like Blackburn in the Champion League, they were out after 4 games then won 4-1 their last game at home.
Click to expand...

They are carrying a lot of injuries now and really after losing to us like they did they'll be a bit depleted. I can see us winning the game but unfortunately i can see them getting beat by the other 2 as well. I can see it going right down to the Bayern game for this group.
 
dctid said:
Corky said:
Villareal were not easy at home , it will be a lot harder today.

If we beat them then Napoli still have to go there. It will be a massive face saving exercise to beat Napoli last game.

Like Blackburn in the Champion League, they were out after 4 games then won 4-1 their last game at home.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Thought Napoli's game against Villareal was at home in Naples - might be wrong mind[/quote]

That was 'match day 2'

2 high profile injuries does not help, but most home teams would still retain the advantage and get something.
 
Is it not just as simple as 2 wins and we're through? Wouldn't it be impossible for any other 2 teams to get more than 10?

If we beat Villarreal and then Napoli or Bayern, neither Napoli or Bayern can get 2 wins.
 
Bongo Joe said:
Is it not just as simple as 2 wins and we're through? Wouldn't it be impossible for any other 2 teams to get more than 10?

If we beat Villarreal and then Napoli or Bayern, neither Napoli or Bayern can get 2 wins.
Click to expand...

Say you beat Villarreal and Napoli. Loose against Bayern.

Bayern could win all games. They have 16 and are 1st. Napoli only wins against Villarreal. Than Napoli has 8 points and is 3rd.

If Bayern and Napoli would tie, both Napoli and Bayern win against Villarreal
Bayern had 14 is 1st. Napoli had 9 and is 3rd.

Napoli wins in Munich. Bayern would have 13 and be 1st.
Napoli would have 11 and is 2nd.

---------------------

You beat Villarreal and Bayern. Both win against Villarreal. You loose against Napoli.

Bayern wins against Napoli and 13 - 1st.
Napoli would have 11 and is 2nd.

Napoli and Bayern tie.
Bayern would have 11 and be 2nd.
Napoli would have 12 and be 1st.

Bayern looses against Napoli. Napoli had 14 and would be 1st.
Bayern had 10. You would have to win the last game with more than 2 goals.
------------------------

You loose against Villarreal. Win against Bayern and Napoli. Both win against Villarreal.

Bayern wins against Napoli. Bayern has 13.
Napoli has 8 and is 3rd.

Bayern ties against Napoli. Bayern has 11.
Napoli has 9 and is 3rd.

Napoli wins and has 12 and is 1st.
Bayern would have 10 and it would depend on the last game.
Bayern has 10 and it depends if you win the last game with more than 2 goals.

I have a cold and cannot sleep. But I hope I have calculated right.

All of it includes that both Bayern and Napoli win their matches against Villarreal. Bayern had 33-0 in the last 8 games at home - so it looks good that they will get the 4 points they probably need out of the next two CL games. That should be enough for them as Napoli than could get best to 12 with beating ManCity who would have only 10. In the other direction it would be that Napoli could get best 9 or 10 and ManCity 13.
 
I'm with the simplistic poster in the first page.... way too many permutations

We definitely need Bayern to beat Napoli tonight (unless we still dream of topping the group - that's certainly possible but not likely - unless Bayern lose tonight!), and whatever happens to us in Villareal, we also need to not lose in Napoli, and then we're virtually through based on limiting our opponents points totals.

It's gonna be a lot simpler to work it out after tonight's results, that's for sure.
 
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