Championship thread 2024/25

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Alan Harper's Tash said:
It’s often why the 3rd place team don’t win the playoffs. These couple of games, their mindset will be to not get injured, not to win.

It’s a tough mindset to reverse.
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But don't forget...
 

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Alan Harper's Tash said:
It’s often why the 3rd place team don’t win the playoffs. These couple of games, their mindset will be to not get injured, not to win.

It’s a tough mindset to reverse.
Click to expand...

I think this is a bit misunderstood. 3rd place teams get promoted through the play-offs roughly as often as you would expect. There's no hoodoo on 3rd place, if anything they actually win slightly more often than you'd expect on form/stats alone.

In the Championship, since play-offs began:
3rd - has won it 36% of the time
4th - has won it 25% of the time
5th - has won it 25% of the time
6th - has won it 14% of the time

To get these stats the base probability distribution would mean that 3rd beats 6th in the semi-final with ~65-70% probability. That is not far off the kind of odds you would have in a regular season match, possibly slightly better. Leeds play Bristol, who are 6th, at home with a larger gap between them on Monday and they only have a 78/22 edge.

Putting the stats aside though, you are right in saying there are plenty of examples of 3rd place teams who've completely bottled it. It's just that on average, that's not the case.
 
Luton v Coventry. A Luton player running towards goal, catches his studs on the knee of the Coventry defender trying to catch him. Luton player goes down, referee blows for a free kick and sends Coventry player off as he’s the last man. It wasn’t even a foul let alone a sending off.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
I think this is a bit misunderstood. 3rd place teams get promoted through the play-offs roughly as often as you would expect. There's no hoodoo on 3rd place, if anything they actually win slightly more often than you'd expect on form/stats alone.

In the Championship, since play-offs began:
3rd - has won it 36% of the time
4th - has won it 25% of the time
5th - has won it 25% of the time
6th - has won it 14% of the time

To get these stats the base probability distribution would mean that 3rd beats 6th in the semi-final with ~65-70% probability. That is not far off the kind of odds you would have in a regular season match, possibly slightly better. Leeds play Bristol, who are 6th, at home with a larger gap between them on Monday and they only have a 78/22 edge.

Putting the stats aside though, you are right in saying there are plenty of examples of 3rd place teams who've completely bottled it. It's just that on average, that's not the case.
Click to expand...
Lies, damn lies and statistics! Lol

Interesting stats there when looking at place by place winning promotion, though of course in terms of finishing 3rd, 3rd placed teams have roughly a 1 in 3 chance of getting promoted, which isn’t good. It is still the highest percentage though as your stats prove though.

I feel (contrary to @Alan Harper's Tash comment about 3rd taking it easy the last few games) it’s often that the team coming 3rd have hit a bit of a rut in the final stages, we’re beaten at the post to an automatic spot and the disappointment on missing out carries over into the play offs and one of the other teams has finished the season with a great momentum, maybe just getting into the play offs but that momentum and euphoria of “pleased to be here” continues to push the team forward against the team who still feel like they shouldn’t be there.
 
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normskih said:
Luton v Coventry. A Luton player running towards goal, catches his studs on the knee of the Coventry defender trying to catch him. Luton player goes down, referee blows for a free kick and sends Coventry player off as he’s the last man. It wasn’t even a foul let alone a sending off.
Click to expand...
I am not watching it, but it looked like a good decision by the ref to me to send the cov bloke off ;)
 
Everything crossed and good luck to our son's Derby County in pulling off a great escape from 7 points adrift when John Eustace took over. I suspect Preston will go down without wishing it but I'd rather Luton go down.
 
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