They've dropped points in really bad games already this year.
Their 'weak' start last year really wasn't as bad as people suggest. They won 3, failed to win in 3, and then went on a massively long winning streak. Their 'weak' start was exaggerated by how strong our start was.
Plus the 3 games they dropped points in were in a draw away at Swansea, a home loss to Liverpool and an away loss to Arsenal. Not really the absolute worst points to drop.
But this year they've lost away to the team with the weakest start in Europe, at home to Burnley, and they drew at home to Arsenal. You can argue that the loss to us was offset by the win against Tottenham. They might need to go on another winning streak again to challenge but with the CL to worry about you do just feel that such a run of form is beyond them.
If Conte sticks around after this season then I think he'll be able to stabilize things so that they can manage the extra games but right now I'd put them behind both Tottenham and United in terms of who's a likely threat this season.