Climate Change is here and man made

[Jim Tolmie's Underpants]

And the science actually says: global warming is real,

That's a strawman argument. No one disputes that increased C02 concentrations should show some warming. The question is how much warming is caused by man and how much is caused by natural variability. The fact that there's been no significant warming for over 18 years demonstrates that C02 forcing is NOT as big as alarmist scientists have claimed. And it's the alarmist scientist's claims that is affecting government policy. A policy which is and will cost ordinary working people MORE tax and hand governments yet more control over our lives.

Another common sceptic's argument above is that the predictions were all wrong, so how can we believe any of this.

But this again is very easy indeed to explain. Climate science is a new discipline, and the study of climate change only really started in any seriousness in the early 1980s, and when the early "global warming" models were first postulated, they were based on very simple models. The more we have studied the Earth's climate, the more we understand how some of the extremely complex interactions come about, but even now, there is a huge amount we don't know.

So why are Governments STILL basing their policy's on science 'we don't fully know' and climate models which do not corespond to observations?

I am absolutely 100% certain that the current models can still not predict exactly what will happen, but they can predict with some certainty that the climate is changing and will continue to change if we do not do something about it.

The climate has been changing for billions of years - and will continue to do so. You don't need a climate model to tell you that.

 

[kas_tippler]

You're very welcome to come and spend the day with me if you wanna know how i 'get on in the real world'. I'd show you my beautiful house (all paid for), lovely wife and family, how to bring up a 3 year old grandson or how to run your own successful business. Then we could go to the pub and meet some of my many friends, although the swearing might put you off them a bit. Hell i'll even pay your bus fare as i've got plenty of spare cash knocking about as well.
I'm off now to go and erect a community marquee so the locals can have a nice xmas feed and drink they otherwise couldn't afford. I've got a meeting with the council urban regeneration team after that but i'll be free around 3ish if you'd like to pop over. You could call me a **** to my face as well then and see how that works out in 'real life'.

I don't think you realise sometimes the hurtful & confrontational things you say, some of us don't own our own houses, have successful business, many friends down the pub, wonderful family, spare cash knocking about, top class education, high flying business meetings.
So what I don't have a car and have to catch the bus, doesn't make me any worse!

 

[stonerblue]

I don't think you realise sometimes the hurtful & confrontational things you say, some of us don't own our own houses, have successful business, many friends down the pub, wonderful family, spare cash knocking about, top class education, high flying business meetings.
So what I don't have a car and have to catch the bus, doesn't make me any worse!

 

[DiscoSteve]

dunno why this came to mind...

it's a tough ol' life out there - the only one guaranteed to make it happen for you... is you!

 

[DiscoSteve]

back on topic - I'm going to continue to carry on as I am, driving my polar bear killing 4x4, eating red meat and running the central heating with the windows open with all my tungsten bulb lights on permanently be it day or night. because I can. and because it wouldn't make ONE JOT of difference if I did any different.

 

[kas_tippler]

Apology accepted

 

[lazza]

That's a strawman argument. No one disputes that increased C02 concentrations should show some warming. The question is how much warming is caused by man and how much is caused by natural variability. The fact that there's been no significant warming for over 18 years demonstrates that C02 forcing is NOT as big as alarmist scientists have claimed. And it's the alarmist scientist's claims that is affecting government policy. A policy which is and will cost ordinary working people MORE tax and hand governments yet more control over our lives.



So why are Governments STILL basing their policy's on science 'we don't fully know' and climate models which do not corespond to observations?



The climate has been changing for billions of years - and will continue to do so. You don't need a climate model to tell you that.

Well, I could understand your argument if that were actually true.

The last 18 years, means no warming since 1998, is that what you are saying? There is an overwhelming mass of data to say that this simply is not the case. For example, the graph below shows the surface and lower atmosphere average temperature change, based on data from 5 different sets of measurements:

Or this, which I posted previously, showing heat content of the atmosphere, oceans surfaces and deep ocean:

Or another version of one of the earlier graphs, showing data from earlier, and including a much more meaningful 5-year average, which reduces noise and flattens out anomaolous years:

(it's worth a read of the article that this graph comes from, as it very neatly updates the Kenleyside argument, which was one of the papers that first postulated a pause in global warming: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/11/and-the-winner-is/)

Finally, the reason climate skpetics love to look back to 1998 is because it was an anomalously hot year (due to the El Nino effect), so there was an apparent dip afterwards. But we are now consistently above the average temperature in 1998. The hottest 12 month period ever recorded was June 2009 to May 2010, and 7 or 8 of the hottest years ever have occurred since 1998....!

 

[Damocles]

For me this is Politics vs Science. I don't feel these two things are good partners.

I ducked out of climate change threads a year or so back because in my view it went from "scientifically debatable thought ridiculously slanted evidentially" to now a religious argument.

There's no point in these threads now. If people are looking at the science and still coming up with their conclusions then they will never be convinced no matter how damning the evidence is. At that point throwing more graphs, papers and contextualising their quotes is wasted time.

 

[lazza]

I ducked out of climate change threads a year or so back because in my view it went from "scientifically debatable thought ridiculously slanted evidentially" to now a religious argument.

There's no point in these threads now. If people are looking at the science and still coming up with their conclusions then they will never be convinced no matter how damning the evidence is. At that point throwing more graphs, papers and contextualising their quotes is wasted time.

Spoilsport! I've got a good hundred more graphs and charts, a good dozen arguments that haven't been touched on, and loads and loads of past experience debating this with people. I haven't even asked any of the climate change deniers if they also deny evolution by natural selection yet...

 

[Jim Tolmie's Underpants]

Well, I could understand your argument if that were actually true.

The last 18 years, means no warming since 1998, is that what you are saying? There is an overwhelming mass of data to say that this simply is not the case.

It simply IS! All of the data sets except for the new NOAA/NCDC data set show a hiatus (with NASA LOTI being the other data set coming closest to not showing a hiatus). I suggest you read this: http://judithcurry.com/2015/11/06/hiatus-controversy-show-me-the-data/

But we are now consistently above the average temperature in 1998. The hottest 12 month period ever recorded was June 2009 to May 2010, and 7 or 8 of the hottest years ever have occurred since 1998....!

I've been above my average height for the past 540 months. Using your logic that means I am getting taller.