Coronavirus (2021) thread

[domalino]

Here's the data for over 80's as a percentage of total deaths since the start of the vaccination programme, by date of death.

Whilst noisy, it is now clear there is a declining trend. Whilst we can't of course say this is *caused* by the vaccination programme, it is *consistent* with what we would expect.

View attachment 9511

There are other possible causes which could include changes in the age range of those infected over time.

[edit this is England hospital data, not all nations or all settings]

I've not got time to do this properly at the moment so apologies for the shitty graph done on my phone, but what's interesting about this is we only got decent numbers vaccinated by the 10th of Jan or so.

The official numbers are -

27/12 - 18.49% vaccinated
03/01 - 23.08% vaccinated
10/01 - 36/54% vaccinated
17/01 - 59/43% vaccinated
24/01 - 79/71% vaccinated

So if you add % of over 80's vaccinated on top of that graph you get something like this.




If you apply the rough 3-4 weeks from infection to death timeline, the results we are seeing now in declining deaths is really from about the time we had 25% vaccine coverage of over 80's.

And if the decrease is proportional to the % vaccinated, we should see that blue line start to plummet over the next 2 weeks.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The economy would be more harshly affected if we go back to square one again because we were stupid and opened up society too soon.

I genuinely dont think we will go into another lock down after April May time. Simply because the vaccines work.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

See the problem with society nowadays is if the lad had posted online coming out with that drivel, he would have been hunted down and had a visit from the police by now, yet do it in person and its seemingly ok.
He struck me as the type that would cry assault if you cracked him round the head with an empty crisp packet, although he could be a wolf in sheeps clothing and a mandem? Not to be messed with and ting?

The bigger the scrubber the more likely they are to get their camera out to wave it in people's faces, I've found, too. Most of the time these thick twats incriminate themselves. If I was in some kind of altercation it would never cross my mind to film it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I've not got time to do this properly at the moment so apologies for the shitty graph done on my phone, but what's interesting about this is we only got decent numbers vaccinated by the 10th of Jan or so.

The official numbers are -

27/12 - 18.49% vaccinated
03/01 - 23.08% vaccinated
10/01 - 36/54% vaccinated
17/01 - 59/43% vaccinated
24/01 - 79/71% vaccinated

So if you add % of over 80's vaccinated on top of that graph you get something like this.

View attachment 9519


If you apply the rough 3-4 weeks from infection to death timeline, the results we are seeing now in declining deaths is really from about the time we had 25% vaccine coverage of over 80's.

Agree, but I think it's worse than that, actually - you also need to add another 2-3 weeks lag from vaccination to immunity. So we'd only expect a small impact by now, but a very significant impact over the next few weeks.

 

[Healdplace]

Well the small impact is not too grim (even if mostly caused by lockdown not vaccine) so the significant one should really be great news.

That graph and the analysis look hopeful we are turning a corner.

 

[gaz76]

The bigger the scrubber the more likely they are to get their camera out to wave it in people's faces, I've found, too. Most of the time these thick twats incriminate themselves. If I was in some kind of altercation it would never cross my mind to film it.

Ive noticed that a lot as well, although surely ramming their phone where the sun dont shine would render said video useless?

 

[Healdplace]

The jump from Tuesday to Wednesday data last week was up too from 20, 089 to 25, 308 versus from 16, 840 to 19,202 this week - so about a 50% lower increase day to day.

 

[cleavers]

If you look at the number by date of death, it is below 1000 now, latest date for data is 31st Jan, and it fell below 1000 on 26th Jan (last Tuesday).

There's a few addons today that have taken the 26th above 1000, so it's now the 28th that it went below 1000, and that is only 18 under, so could yet climb to that number (though 25th is still below 1000).

The date the tide turned remains the 19th.

 

[abu13]

I remember a time where we were dreading a death rate of 1000+, now id do anything to get back to them numbers.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

They should have a number at least and I suggest those who refuse should be placed in eternal lockdown and in some cases their eligibility to remain in this country examined

The Telegraph reported on Jan 9th that no record of those who declined their vaccine invitation was being kept.