Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Regional Summary

Everywhere up a bit.

NW still just behind London but the gap narrowed again today.

North West rose by 263 to 2582 London up by 208 to 2973.

West Midlands (2325) and South East (2330) up by similar low hundreds are the only other regions now over 2000

Both South West and North East - the two smallest regions - are below 1000.


As for Greater Manchester - it was again up proportionately more than the NW average sadly

But these are small numbers so only trends really matter.

GM rose today from 831 to 992 - so 161 of the 263 rise of the NW - enough to take the GM percentage up by 2.6% to 38,4%.

In summary in GM nearly all of that rise was driven by Manchester - up 65 to 228 and Bolton - up 78 to 153.

Only Salford was over 100 as well - and this was down to 105.

The other 7 boroughs were either up a small number or down a small number. All of those 7 were below 100 cases.

Even Wigan that posted 91 - first under 100 in a couple of months.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
Click to expand...

Not having a go at you, but there's something wrong with that graphic, why is it 13 blocks ?

It also doesn't take into account the fact we are not yet talking about vaccinating kids, so we are through 1/6 of the whole population, and 1/6 of 13, is at least 2 blocks, and take kids away, it's probably 3 blocks, and 1 on the bottom row.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Here's the data for over 80's as a percentage of total deaths since the start of the vaccination programme, by date of death.

Whilst noisy, it is now clear there is a declining trend. Whilst we can't of course say this is *caused* by the vaccination programme, it is *consistent* with what we would expect.

View attachment 9511

There are other possible causes which could include changes in the age range of those infected over time.

[edit this is England hospital data, not all nations or all settings]
Click to expand...

Just to add to this, and sadly not as positive a message, the below is a proportional area chart of all settings deaths in England only. I've lumped all 5-year groups <50 yrs into one group for clarity. I think @roubaixtuesday graph does show a reduction in those over 80 dying in hospital though.

Over 80's still up and around 62% of all settings deaths until 24th Jan but a sudden decrease to 28th Jan could be the sign we want (ca. 60%). To repeat - this data goes to 28/1/21 and is all settings England, date of death (not reported)



covid_deaths_age_proportions.png

data from covid dashboard, as usual
 
cleavers said:
Not having a go at you, but there's something wrong with that graphic, why is it 13 blocks ?

It also doesn't take into account the fact we are not yet talking about vaccinating kids, so we are through 1/6 of the whole population, and 1/6 of 13, is at least 2 blocks, and take kids away, it's probably 3 blocks, and 1 on the bottom row.
Click to expand...
No problem with that. Can't say as I'd noticed tbf. I only posted it because there's a simple comparison to some of the previous days numbers, via that account.
 
shemnel said:
Just to add to this, and sadly not as positive a message, the below is a proportional area chart of all settings deaths in England only. I've lumped all 5-year groups <50 yrs into one group for clarity. I think @roubaixtuesday graph does show a reduction in those over 80 dying in hospital though.

Over 80's still up and around 62% of all settings deaths until 24th Jan but a sudden decrease to 28th Jan could be the sign we want (ca. 60%). To repeat - this data goes to 28/1/21 and is all settings England, date of death (not reported)



View attachment 9528

data from covid dashboard, as usual
Click to expand...

Great graphic!

I thought hospital data might be more meaningful as the overall could be more subject to care home incidence, which I'm guessing swings around more than overall.

But I've no evidence for that - just speculation.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Great graphic!

I thought hospital data might be more meaningful as the overall could be more subject to care home incidence, which I'm guessing swings around more than overall.

But I've no evidence for that - just speculation.
Click to expand...
Was my first thought too. It's a dense and interwoven picture but surely the over 80s will start to dip at a faster rate. Of course all deaths are dropping so we're looking for a faster rate of decrease. Perhaps the higher IFR in that age group mediates the decrease a bit? I haven't had time to ponder it.
 
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