Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Vaccine availability in the USA - for populous areas - seems to me - to be lacking.

This is based on my experience in Washington State - near Seattle.

I very much want to get vaccinated - but every website I enter - to attempt a scheduled vaccination - informs me that vaccines are not available.

And then... just today - after a bunch of web surfing - I find one site where vaccines are available. Awesome!

I then check the site - within 30 miles - it turns out that the site is actually in an island - and it would take me at least 1.5 hours with no traffic to get there!

As much as I would like to be vaccinated - a 3-hour plus round trip for a 2-shot vacitionation - 6 hours to get both vaccines assuming no traffic - isn't reasonable.

Instead, for me at least - COVID vaccinations are largely unavailable in the Seattle area at present.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
The graphic predates the letter. I've not looked at all of the signatories. It's, however, striking that people who have been so drastically and consistently wrong throughout pop up yet again, and get the same welcoming publicity from the same news organisations.

Despite their appalling track record.
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Suprised they have got the gall to do it after what has happened since their last letter.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
The Gates initiative on malaria is serious stuff too.
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Yes, very, very much so. Gates is honestly my hero.

Everything his foundation is investing in is to the huge benefit of mankind - too, his investment priorities are spot on, investing only in areas where incremental investment beyond what governments are currently investing in may achieve maximum potential.
 
England deaths down wk to wk from 28 to 16

Cases up wk to wk from 2169 to 2410

There were 16,000 more tests last week though.

However, just under half the 2410 England cases today were reportedly LFD tests of which about 30% get discounted after they are found to have been wrong a day or two later.

Not sure how true that is.
 
little update since my last graph 2 weeks ago - positive cases by test type in England only (date of specimen). no real effect seen since the pubs opened. LFD results really kicking in for some reason, though it remains to be seen whether it is just another gentle crest like mid to late March.

plenty on the BMJ about the troubles of using LFD in a home setting, and perhaps how the lower prevalence rate actually might work in their favour. Either way, without a confirmatory PCR I am against them.

covid_cases_by_test.png
 
Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East UP 45 to 257 v 205

London UP 139 to 401 v 406 (London had the largest rise today and becomes the highest in UK again)

South East UP 77 to 302 v 285 (South East stays below the North West in fourth place despite big rise)

South West UP 39 to 151 v 144


Every southern region bar London up week to week and London only 6 off doing so.





MIDLANDS

East UP 24 to 189 v 208 - still down wk to wk.

West UP 81 to 220 v 212


Midlands fairly consistent week to week




NORTH

North East UP 41 to 129 v 83 (Still lowest region in England today but back over 100).

Yorkshire UP 79 to 361 v 307 - Well up and up week to week but London had worse day and went top.


NORTH WEST UP 64 to 340 v 270 . Just still behind Yorkshire today and behind London too. But well up week to week.



Greater Manchester was also up week to week - but only by 12 of those 70 so is outperforming other parts of the North West just as the Zoe app has been showing. Though it was up more day to day than par. By 40 of the 64.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


170 cases today - up 40 on yesterday.

Takes GM share of NW back over 50%.

But this is only up week to week by 12 from last Tuesday. Which is well below expected given the NW rise.






Bolton stays at the summit. Up 9 to 35. Its highest numbers in nearly a month and Zoe again predicted this. But has seen a fall today so fingers crossed they get that right too. Also up 10 week to weel.

Manchester is level with Bolton today on just 35 - up 14 on day but down 9 week to week. So deserves second place as its Pop Score is falling.

Trafford still has problems and is up here on 23 - highest number in a month. Rise by 11 in day and also wk to wk. Trafford also the only borough up by double figure Pop score points today (10) taking it closer to becoming the last borough to join the 7000 club now on 6977 and just days away.

Salford falls by 2 to 15 which is up 5 from last wk.

Tameside up by 1 to 12 on the day which is up 4 from last week.

Rochdale up 3 on the day also on 12 - which is also up 3 week to week.

Oldham down 2 on the day to 11 which is up 1 on last week.

Stockport is up by 3 to 10 - another good fall of 9 week to week. Trafford's woes mean it lost 7 overall Pop Score points to Stockport in one go cutting the lead to 169.

Bury also on 10 - up 4 on the day but down 3 from last week



Which means only one borough made it into single numbers today - the ever reliable right now:-

Wigan on 7 - down 1 on the day and the same wk to wk.


Weekly cases:-

Bury 43, Stockport 67. Rochdale 69, Wigan 69, Tameside 71, Oldham 92, Trafford 99, Salford 99. Bolton 151, Manchester 225.
 
HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:


A good fall of 83 - exactly the same as last Tuesday in England patients in hospital. And over 100 in the UK taking that total to just over 1500 in all 4 nations.

Ventilators fell by 12 in England and 16 in the UK.


In the England regions only modest falls but Yorkshire had the best day with now under 200 in hospital. North West almost made it at 202.

And North West unfortunately with South East the only two region to increase ventilated patients. But only very slightly.

The NW was last lower in patients on 13 September - ahead of the national picture. They were last lower on ventilators on 15 September - also ahead of the national numbers.




UK total:


Patients down to 1539 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 37, 709 in 99 days) :- lowest since 20 September

Ventilators down to 214 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3863 in 93 days) : lowest since 22 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

107 Covid admissions following 99, 124, 92, 126, 98, 138, 112. in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 83 to 1310 v 1649 last week :- lowest since 21 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 026 in 99 days)

Ventilators: down 12 to 196 v 273 last week :- lowest since 23 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3540 in 93 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 3 to 140 v 181 // stays at 14 v 15

London down 8 to 368 v 439 // down 5 to 80 v 107

Midlands down 15 to 237 v 300 // down 8 to 34 v 50

NE & Yorks down 25 to 194 v 270 // down 1 to 27 v 41

North West down 15 to 202 v 264 // UP 1 to 27 v 37

South East down 3 to 120 v 124 // UP 2 to 11 v 16

South West down 14 to 49 v 71 // down 1 to 3 v 7
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 54 / 54 / LEVEL Testing positive 9.1%

Manchester 42 / 50/ DOWN 8 Testing positive 9.6%

Trafford 41/ 29 / UP 12 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 38 / 29 / UP 9 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 37 / 53 DOWN 16 Testing positive 9.7%

Rochdale 31 / 45 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 9.6%

Tameside 29 / 33 DOWN 4 Testing positive 8.1%

Stockport 23 / 27 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 7.1%

Bury 22 / 33 / DOWN 11 Testing positive 9.0%

Wigan 21 / 28 / DOWN 7 Testing positive 8.9%


The lowest three boroughs starting to cut a little adrift separated by just 2 in the low 20s all going down.

Trafford has been climbing the ladder from best of them all in past week or two and in heights it has not touched in a while. Almost went above Manchester today which would have been unimaginable not that long ago.

Bolton starting to look isolated up top though its Pop Score has only moved between 44 and 54 in two weeks. Problem is other boroughs are doing better - notably Manchester - hence why these two are now jostling for top - expected of Manchester given its size but not Bolton.
 
On top of yesterday's run I went back to the gym in the first time in over a year.
As with the first vaccine and my return to running I had a bit of an emotional moment.
Lots of careful steps taken in my gym (although I did feel a pang of guilt going back in, but my daughter really wanted to return and given her mental struggles without all this I headed in).

This was my mental buoyancy before the pandemic after some awful few years battling my own black dogs, so here's hoping this really is the new dawn.
 
shemnel said:
little update since my last graph 2 weeks ago - positive cases by test type in England only (date of specimen). no real effect seen since the pubs opened. LFD results really kicking in for some reason, though it remains to be seen whether it is just another gentle crest like mid to late March.

plenty on the BMJ about the troubles of using LFD in a home setting, and perhaps how the lower prevalence rate actually might work in their favour. Either way, without a confirmatory PCR I am against them.

View attachment 15242
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Really helpful graph, thanks; shows how cases virtually flat.

Although it's only two weeks since pubs and shops re-opened it's likely those first couple of days and weekend saw the biggest risks to an increase in cases (big queues, longest drinking sessions) but they've had little impact on numbers and hospitalisation continues to fall.

Great news.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
Joe Rogan blowing up Twitter by apparently telling young people not to be vaccinated.
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I bet you many, many conspiracy theories are emboldened by his shows.
He does have a broad range of guests to be fair (lots of brilliant scientists amongst the UFO hunters).
 
Just out of interest, what are peoples thoughts about major events taking place I'm the UK this summer? I'll be honest and say that I just couldn't see any way that restrictions would be lifted on 21st June to allow things like concerts and sporting events to go ahead with full crowds. I thought there'd have to be loads of caveats and restrictions on things that wouldn't allow it but as things get a bit closer I'm now not so sure. I won't go as far as saying I'm optimistic that things will be back to normal by July but from a UK point of view I'm starting to struggle to find reasons why they won't!
 
Bluemoon dan said:
Just out of interest, what are peoples thoughts about major events taking place I'm the UK this summer? I'll be honest and say that I just couldn't see any way that restrictions would be lifted on 21st June to allow things like concerts and sporting events to go ahead with full crowds. I thought there'd have to be loads of caveats and restrictions on things that wouldn't allow it but as things get a bit closer I'm now not so sure. I won't go as far as saying I'm optimistic that things will be back to normal by July but from a UK point of view I'm starting to struggle to find reasons why they won't!
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It's being widely reported today that the NHS app will be used to confirm your vaccination, test or having had Covid status. Grant Shapps is quoted as saying it is being looked at now with a view of having it in place by early summer for foreign travel.
 
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