It's now just about 6 weeks from Christmas, from which point everywhere was locked down - I think it's not going to be one cause, but multiple things being factors.
@Healdplace
I've missed some of this - do you have a theory on why the NW figure is so comparatively high?
Legacy from the huge cases on Merseyside just before Christmas when they were still kept out of the top tier. Many visited there for things they could not do around Christmas in GM,
Many of the deaths focus in there and in East Lancashire which has had big problems around Blackburn and Burnley.
Greater Manchester has come off rather better.
This impact will fall now as those cases from back then have dropped with lockdown and deaths lag by weeks as we know. So they will fall too regardless of other measures.
This is a direct predictable (and was predicted) consequence of the utterly crazy decision to treat GM differently from Merseyside.
I argued (as did others) in here for a national lockdown as the only thing that really works. Again that has been proven imo.
I said then before Christmas it would come back and bite Merseyside and much less so GM and that looks like one prediction I got right but wish I never had to make because the treatment of Merseyside was dangerous and needless.
Had they put the UK into a national lockdown pre Christmas not these dangerous tiers many lives would have been saved.
But we are where we are and they are still saying we will exit lockdown into tiers so they still do not get this it appears.
Hopefully by then it will be less important as the vaccine will be protecting most of the vulnerable.