Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Zoe App data:

Predicted cases down 89 on yesterday to new low of 856 for the UK.

Symptomatic cases down 602 on yesterday to 16, 523 - this is the lowest number Zoe has ever registered.

The map now also shows that the three 'worst' areas are all in the north - Scotland. Yorkshire and North West, the Midlands has fallen well back and the South is in many cases almost Covid free.

One would hope this wave is receding northwards and those areas will fall. As the NW has one of the lowest R numbers (0.8).

Chorley is currently the area in the NW with the highest infectivity level being reported via symptoms.

In Greater Manchester the good news is the high flying areas like Bolton have come right down.

The slightly less good news is that what is currently top of the tree in GM pop scores - Stockport - has risen in past few days in the Zoe data to around 250 per million versus 180 or so last week. Though that is not a high number and where most of GM was a couple of weeks ago. Chorley is four or five times that level.

AS Zoe is often a few days ahead that might mean Stockport's daily run of single figure case numbers that has seen them fall lower and lower and make up ground on Trafford in the overall Pop Score numbers could be halted.

Be interesting to see if Zoe really can predict like this as right now that seems improbable from current data on the ground in GM.
 
Lots of speculation on line that Boris is to make a major announcement in a press briefing on Monday.

It is election week so I guess it will not be bad news whatever it is.

Probably travel related would be my guess. As May kicks off the season. If this is more than idle chatter or guesswork.

The data is looking really good. Those antibody numbers yesterday showing the levels are rising week by week and being already in the higher 90's% for the over 70s and increasing in percentage the higher the age bracket (so chance of having had the vaccine) suggests the vaccines are at least a major factor in helping - if not driving - this high degree of protection.
 
Healdplace said:
There is a study ongoing into this as the likelihood is those who had two doses of one vaccine and need a booster in the autumn (as all over 60s probably will) may then be given a different kind to their previous two on purpose.
Click to expand...

I started following one of the vaccine scientists working on the moderna vaccine ( or so im lead to believe ) and they were saying there is currently no need to any boosters. even though the virus variants are forming some more avoidance of antibodies there is no change on Tcell immunity.

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout well worth a follow
 
Healdplace said:
Lots of speculation on line that Boris is to make a major announcement in a press briefing on Monday
Click to expand...

International travel announcement is due, would guess that.

I can't watch Johnson press conferences, bad for my health. My last one was last year when Whitty said they didn't expect the tier system to work.

His whole attitude, scruffiness and language is entirely inappropriate for the gravity of the situation.
 
14 England hospital deaths - with 2 from the NW.

Last week 19 with 4 - weeks before 18 with 3 - 33 with 4 - 43 with 8 and 74 with 14.

Also 4 of those 14 today are more than 10 weeks old.
 
Scotland data:

Yet more good news here

0 deaths - was 1 last week

191 cases - was 255 last week

1.1% positivity - was 1.5% last week

67 patients - down 3 on day - was 93 last week

9 Ventilated icu - down 3 on day - was 12 last week.


For first time since last Summer there are now under 100 people in hospital and under 10 on ventilators in each of the three nations other than England.
 
Northern Ireland data:

1 death - was 1 last week

108 cases - was 88 last week

4.2% positivity - was 3.8% last week

4 care home outbreaks - same as yesterday and last week

653 rolling 7 day total cases - was 625 yesterday and 736 last week.

Testing Posting by age:


0 - 19 (226) 34.7%

20 - 39 (226) 34.7%

40 - 59 (136) 20.9%

60 - 79 (42) 6.4%

80 PLUS (22) 3.3%


These numbers continue to show who is catching Covid and who is not.

Almost 70% now under 40 is up again from the last time I worked this out a week or so back.

Still under10% over 60, Which was just under 30% before the vaccination programme really got going in January.
 
More on 14 England hospital deaths.

By region:

1 East, 1 London, 1 Midlands, 3 NE & Yorkshire, 2 North West, 1 South East and 5 South West.

The South West included the backdating to January adding 4 from Bristol hospitals. Some kind of audit I assume as end of month often sees them do that.

The 2 in the NW were 1 each in Salford and Pennine Acute.

By age - 9 of the 14 were over 80, 4 were aged 60 - 79 and 1 aged 40 - 59.

I should add that:-

Only one day in the past week in England hospitals (25 April) has even reached double figures for on the day deaths. At 13 after 5 days.

All the other days ate still below 10.

There has also only been 1 day to reach 20 even after all the days of add ons since 12 April.

April 8 is the only day in the whole month to be over 30 as of now.

The falls have continued to be evident even at these lower numbers week to week.
 
So the total deaths for the 4 nations with out of hospital England to add and any of the 14 to be discounted is 15.

Wk to wk:94 v 52 v 51 v 42 v 22 v 21 v 15 TODAY



And the cases for the three nations with England to add is 335.

Wk to wk: 993 v 912 v 601 v 512 v 371 v 401 v 335 TODAY
 
Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East down 7 to 174 v 232

London UP 3 to 310 v 391 (London back up to second)

South East UP 9 to 259 v 321

South West down 23 to 121 v 137


Every southern region down week to week with almost no change day to day.




MIDLANDS

East down 17 to 179 v 177- almost identical wk to wk

West down 53 to 172 v 202 - biggest daily fall in UK today - also down wk to wk


Still improving here.




NORTH

North East down 2 to 92 v 95 (Still lowest region in England and only sub 100).

Yorkshire UP 34 to 401 v 381 - Only region bar London up and only one up meaningfully and also week to week.

Still the largest region.


NORTH WEST down 36 to 278 v 278 .

With West Midlands the only other region to fall by a meaningful number day to day. And to a number exactly the same as last Friday.

Allowed London to move back ahead into second with both well behind Yorkshire today.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


145 cases today - down 20 on yesterday.

Also down 12 from 157 last Friday.

This is good news on both counts. 20 of the 36 day to day and 12 of no fall at all in NW are above expectations for GM.

Though the city of Liverpool are doing phenomenally well if you want to compare. They had just 6 cases today and their Pop score rose by less than 1.


Manchester stays top rising by 2 on day to 37 - which is down 12 from last week.

Bolton not far behind up 4 to 29. Though that is up 15 week to week.

Trafford up again today into third on 15 - up 2 in day but at least down 1 wk to wk. Trafford rose to 6997 overall Pop score points and looks sure to be the last GM borough to enter the 7000 club tomorrow now.

Salford falls by 13 to 14 which is better and up only 1 from last wk.

Oldham also better - down 5 in the day to 12 which is the same as last week.

Rochdale down 2 on 10 - which is down 1 week to week.



Which means four boroughs were in single figures today:-


Stockport stays at 9 - for third day running - which is up 2 week to week. Again cut the deficit to Trafford for overall Pop Score to now be 158.

Wigan on 7 is down 4 on the day and 7 wk to wk will have helped improve its pop score.

Tameside down 3 on the day to 7 which is down 4 from last week.

And so - as usual - top is:-

Bury down 1 to 5 - which is 5 down from last week


Weekly total cases:-

Bolton's woes and Manchester doing better is pushing Bolton towards the leadership in weekly cases.

Bury 45, Tameside 65, Stockport 66. Wigan 66, Rochdale 76, Oldham 90, Trafford 107, Salford 109, Bolton 181, Manchester 194.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 63 / 48 / UP 15 Testing positive 9.1%

Trafford 45/ 27 / UP 18 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 42 / 34 / UP 8 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 38 / 38 LEVEL Testing positive 9.8%

Manchester 35 / 53 / DOWN 18 Testing positive 9.6%

Rochdale 34 / 35 / DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.6%

Tameside 29 / 34 DOWN 5 Testing positive 8.1%

Bury 23 / 29 / DOWN 6 Testing positive 9.0%

Stockport 22 / 28 / DOWN 6 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 21 / 23 / DOWN 2 Testing positive 8.9%



Not a lot of change today but Wigan's week to week fall claimed top spot and Bolton is looking more and more isolated and out of touch so high.
 
Good news on AZ clots although the numbers getting clots have gone up from the last survey, those dying from it have gone down as medical clinicians are now aware of the condition and treatment paths being made available.
www.telegraph.co.uk

Astrazeneca Covid vaccine Q&A: What we know about blood clots, side effects and risks for under-30s

The UK medicines regulator says the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine continue to outweigh any risks
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
Chance = 1/126,582
Death (19%) = 1/666,221 - roughly the same chance as drowning while you have a bath (1/650,000)
 
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HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:


A better fall of 74 today - it was only 45 last Friday. The fall in other home nations added to this with all three now under 100 patients and in single figures on ventilators. First time in many months.

So the UK now has under 1400 in hospital and under 200 on ventilators, London alone had more than this 5 or 6 weeks ago.

Those Ventilators fell by 8 in England versus 16 last week.


In the England regions only modest falls all round but all did go down - even North West had which also saw ventilators fall too.

The NW was last lower in patients on 11 September - ahead of the national picture. They were last lower on ventilators on 14 September - a few days ahead of the national numbers.




UK total:


Patients down to 1374 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 37, 874 in 102 days) :- lowest since 19 September

Ventilators down to 185 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3892 in 96 days) : lowest since 21 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

89 Covid admissions following 128, 108, 107, 99, 124, 92, 126 in the week before.

Good fall and lowest daily Covid admissions in England for months today.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 74 to 1161 v 1478 last week :- lowest since 19 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 175 in 102 days)

Ventilators: down 8 to 170 v 221 last week :- lowest since 21 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3566 in 96 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 6 to 121 v 162 // down 4 to 10 v 18

London down 24 to 315 v 418 // down 2 to 71 v 91

Midlands down 14 to 218 v 259 // Stays at 30 v 48

NE & Yorks down 10 to 170 v 222 // UP 2 to 20 v 32

North West down 8 to 188 v 229 // down 3 to 25 v 28

South East down 10 to 105 v 116 // down 1 to 11 v 10

South West down 2 to 44 v 72 // Stays at 3 v 4
 
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