Coronavirus (2021) thread

[artfuldodger]

we do seem to have lost synch with there waves. as ours were dropping in Feb/march theres started to rise, so as we were opening up they were shutting down.

It feels as if we are falling behind at this point.

• Germany has reported fewer than 1,000 new daily cases for the first time in eight months, with 549 infections reported on Monday. The country could also be on its way to phasing out masks as cases continue to fall, Health Minister Spahn has said, with rules on wearing face coverings outdoors likely to be lifted first
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• Denmark is also easing its rules from today, with face masks only required on public transport during rush hour and for standing passengers - a requirement that is expected to be lifted by autumn. The country's coronavirus pass, Coronapas, is also being phased out and capacity at sport events increasing
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• Six more Italian regions are also loosening restrictions from today, with a total of 12 of the country's 21 regions and autonomous provinces now under the lowest level of restrictions - although mask wearing and social distances remain in place, and large gatherings are still banned

 

[Marvin]

Indian epidemic is worrying. Could be variant related. Not confirmed. At the moment its just been reported as a correlation. They call their variant the double mutant.

I made this comment on the 31st March 2021. India was put on the UK's red list on the 23rd April 2021.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

On the various comments on the rest of Europe, why we're extending restrictions whereas most of the rest are relaxing. Trying to avoid the whys and wherefores, and look at the data.

Here's current case data, on log plot so the wide differences can be seen on one graph. Just a few selected countries.




Denmark does more testing than anyone else, Germany far less than us.

Denmark I've picked out because, I think it's universally acknowledged, they have managed the epidemic better than almost any other Western country.

Trends are very clear; our cases are rising fast and exponentially in the UK. Most of the rest of Europe is falling, some precipitously. You can see why further relaxation is a big risk.

On vaccination, Europe is ~6 weeks behind us, but catching up slowly. Even if the delta variant causes the rise now seen here elsewhere, vaccination across Europe will catch up before it reaches our levels, I think (doubling time ~10 days in the UK).

Overall, most of Europe (including us - I mean geographical Europe) is going to come out of this almost together.

The UK will have a higher death toll per capita than most, but by no means all - I think Hungary is worst, and Italy the other large country slightly worse than us.

 

[True_Blue69]

On the various comments on the rest of Europe, why we're extending restrictions whereas most of the rest are relaxing. Trying to avoid the whys and wherefores, and look at the data.

Here's current case data, on log plot so the wide differences can be seen on one graph. Just a few selected countries.

View attachment 19077


Denmark does more testing than anyone else, Germany far less than us.

Denmark I've picked out because, I think it's universally acknowledged, they have managed the epidemic better than almost any other Western country.

Trends are very clear; our cases are rising fast and exponentially in the UK. Most of the rest of Europe is falling, some precipitously. You can see why further relaxation is a big risk.

On vaccination, Europe is ~6 weeks behind us, but catching up slowly. Even if the delta variant causes the rise now seen here elsewhere, vaccination across Europe will catch up before it reaches our levels, I think (doubling time ~10 days in the UK).

Overall, most of Europe (including us - I mean geographical Europe) is going to come out of this almost together.

The UK will have a higher death toll per capital than most, but by no means all - I think Hungary is worst, and Italy the other large country slightly worse than us.

Where is Sweden in all this nowadays?

 

[grunge]

Where is Sweden in all this nowadays?

Death wise still way ahead of us in terms of deaths per million. our spikes are higher probably down to population density.

 

[artfuldodger]

On the various comments on the rest of Europe, why we're extending restrictions whereas most of the rest are relaxing. Trying to avoid the whys and wherefores, and look at the data.

Here's current case data, on log plot so the wide differences can be seen on one graph. Just a few selected countries.

View attachment 19077


Denmark does more testing than anyone else, Germany far less than us.

Denmark I've picked out because, I think it's universally acknowledged, they have managed the epidemic better than almost any other Western country.

Trends are very clear; our cases are rising fast and exponentially in the UK. Most of the rest of Europe is falling, some precipitously. You can see why further relaxation is a big risk.

On vaccination, Europe is ~6 weeks behind us, but catching up slowly. Even if the delta variant causes the rise now seen here elsewhere, vaccination across Europe will catch up before it reaches our levels, I think (doubling time ~10 days in the UK).

Overall, most of Europe (including us - I mean geographical Europe) is going to come out of this almost together.

The UK will have a higher death toll per capital than most, but by no means all - I think Hungary is worst, and Italy the other large country slightly worse than us.

Why are they not having the same issues with the Delta variant?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

All well and good people saying that it's only 4 more weeks but that 4 weeks takes in a hell of a lot of events and plans that are now ended. Purely from a sporting point of view there are all the fixtures at the Euros in England that could have had full attendance, Wimbledon, the British Grand Prix at Silverstone etc. And yes I am well aware that the 21st was never a completely confirmed date but these sort of events don't just happen. They take months of planning that organisations will have had to spend money doing and booking stuff for only to have it all cancelled again.

and all because of governemnt incompetence!

 

[lancs blue]

On the various comments on the rest of Europe, why we're extending restrictions whereas most of the rest are relaxing. Trying to avoid the whys and wherefores, and look at the data.

Here's current case data, on log plot so the wide differences can be seen on one graph. Just a few selected countries.

View attachment 19077


Denmark does more testing than anyone else, Germany far less than us.

Denmark I've picked out because, I think it's universally acknowledged, they have managed the epidemic better than almost any other Western country.

Trends are very clear; our cases are rising fast and exponentially in the UK. Most of the rest of Europe is falling, some precipitously. You can see why further relaxation is a big risk.

On vaccination, Europe is ~6 weeks behind us, but catching up slowly. Even if the delta variant causes the rise now seen here elsewhere, vaccination across Europe will catch up before it reaches our levels, I think (doubling time ~10 days in the UK).

Overall, most of Europe (including us - I mean geographical Europe) is going to come out of this almost together.

The UK will have a higher death toll per capital than most, but by no means all - I think Hungary is worst, and Italy the other large country slightly worse than us.

Is Portugal rising largely because of the influx of UK visitors while it was on the green list?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

You are just lying now! We do not have the most excess deaths per 100,000. Far from it - check your facts

Coronavirus death rate in Europe, by country 2023| Statista

As of January 13, 2023, Bulgaria had the highest rate of COVID-19 deaths among its population in Europe at 548.6 deaths per 100,000 population.

www.statista.com

We were 10th in Europe per 100,000 population when this was published and falling on a weekly basis - not bad when you consider the population density of this country.

Second only to Malta in Europe for jabs given per 100 people.

Europe: COVID-19 vaccination rate by country 2023| Statista

As of January 18, 2023, Portugal had the highest COVID-19 vaccination rate in Europe having administered 272.78 doses per 100 people in the country, while Malta had administered 258.49 doses per 100.

www.statista.com

To be honest you are just talking utter shit as per usual to suit your agenda. Thankfully i have not seen any of your ramblings for the last year but you are still as odd as ever and more importantly just spouting incorrect information.

worsley, I have a lot of time for you and respect your pov. However, surely even you must accept that not putting India on the red list weeks earlier when the data clearly showed it should have been, was a catastrphic error by the government. And Hancock just lied his way out of it. We are now all going to pay the price for that mistake.

 

[worsleyweb]

worsley, I have a lot of time for you and respect your pov. However, surely even you must accept that not putting India on the red list weeks earlier when the data clearly showed it should have been, was a catastrphic error by the government. And Hancock just lied his way out of it. We are now all going to pay the price for that mistake.

yes i guess that was a complete fuck up - but just picking up Kowalskis lies.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Why are they not having the same issues with the Delta variant?

I don't think anyone really knows. The uncertainty here is one of the most difficult things.

I've seen two theories:

(1) it was seeded much more here, due to the combination of close links with India and the very late application of strong border controls.

(2) Our vaccination programme has been very strict on age applicability, meaning that for young people, most of whose contacts are their peers, the susceptible proportion is very high, which has driven the epidemic faster than elsewhere.

(1) seems convincing, (2) more speculative. I've certainly been expecting cases to start rising across Europe with the variant, but thankfully it hasn't happened.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

yes i guess that was a complete fuck up - but just picking up Kowalskis lies.

fair enough mate.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Is Portugal rising largely because of the influx of UK visitors while it was on the green list?

I think the start of the rise pre-dates the green list - Portugal was added 24th May?

Certainly possible that it made it worse, but hard to say either way from the line of overall case numbers.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Yet the EU and US will likely overtake us in getting freedoms back. EU citizens can already travel around and double jabbed US citizens have no restrictions. The ‘world beating vaccine rollout’ will not look world beating when we don’t see the benefit of it and are left behind with industries shafted and job losses piling up.

Don’t be fooled by Kate Bingham doing a good job with the vaccines, those running the show are still incompetent wankers and will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Don't be to sure of that - The Delta variant already has a foothold in Spain and several other European countries. Portugal has its own variant similar to Delta but a bit different.
Even with their crap levels of genome sequencing they are spotting it.
Natural R0 for Delta = 5. Herd immunity around 80%. Younger people hospitalised. It is a crap fest.
Fortunately it is looking more and more like we get a big rise in cases till we get close to herd immunity when it flattens off.

 

[Marvin]

Why are they not having the same issues with the Delta variant?

India used to be a British colony and hence the Indian community in the UK will be huge in comparison to our European neighbours. Has to be a huge factor in any explanation.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Where is Sweden in all this nowadays?

Looks like their cases are starting to fall consistently too.

Overall they've got a death rate slightly lower than the UK, but way higher than other Nordics.

 

[Healdplace]

Thank you roubaix, that is very interesting.

It is clear we have tossed away our big advantage by the utterly stupid tardiness over India - despite the reasoning.

The reckoning will come for that - especially as it seems it will cost the UK financially a lot as we were edging towards an early exit and quicker recovery. Now we lose that edge and are probably going to be paying for Covid much like we paid fof World War Two for decades.

Though I truly hope that does not mean 2085 before we pay off the Covid debt! Money will be extinct before the debt otherwise.

Now is not the time to demand a reckoning for the error. It will come. But for now we just have to try to do the right thing and hope that the early signs this wave can be brought under control in the next month prove true and make this just a short delay not a long term postponement of the return to much normality.

Going to be a hard ask for a lot of people but unfortunately if they opt out from anger at the governmemt it will not be this government paying. It will be the businesses and employees who never recover. And the livelihoods ruined. Those of you angry - understandably - at politicians need to remember who we are doing what we are doing this for. Ordinary hard working people not politicians who would make money out of the apocalypse regardless of party persuasion. Because that is how the modern world works.

 

[Marvin]

Conjecture: The other factor in the growth of the Indian variant is likely to have been the living conditions of the group who imported it. You'd have instant transmission to extended families. Therefore it has a chance to start clusters.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Don't be to sure of that - The Delta variant already has a foothold in Spain and several other European countries.
Even with their crap levels of genome sequencing they are spotting it.
Natural R0 = 5. Younger people hospitalised. It is a crap fest.

Spain looks to be a bit of an outlier in Europe with cases ~stable.

But for most of continental Europe, even if (or more likely when) delta takes hold, given the currently low and rapidly falling case numbers, it seems very likely vaccination will overtake it before cases reach our levels. Nothing is certain, of course.

Europe in general is now vaccinating faster than the UK, Spain in particular is a fair bit faster, though still a few weeks behind in overall numbers.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Not having more excess deaths per capita than anyone else except for the US? Not putting India on the red list because Johnson wanted the glory of a visit to India which has put opening up in doubt?

Europe is now vaxxing at a faster rate than the UK, have kept their economies more open and will likely relax travel restrictions faster than the UK.

Our vaccine rollout has been excellent, but kind of wasted if we are still behind everyone else.

There are 16 European countries currently with a worse deaths per capita than us.