Coronavirus (2021) thread

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twosips said:
And how exactly can they 100% prove its safe if your eyes? If we waited two years, some would say wait five, if we did five another would say 'wait ten!'. They've been through all the same incredibly thorough JCVI trials as all the others, so be more specific. It has been proven to be safe by all the same measures as all the other vaccines in use.
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We should wait around 200 years.

Ok, so Smallpox was eradicated but every person who had the jab when it first became available is dead now.

Makes you think!
 
Healdplace said:
Big jump in cases today sadly - 9055

Up from 7673 yesterday and 7540 last week and 4330 week before.

9 all settings deaths.

Also from 148K FEWER tests than yesterday btw.
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Yes but still a reduction in the week to week growth. So the growth rate is still coming down.
The UK growth rate (not infection rate) has slowed for seven consecutive days.

Today’s seven-day average is up 31.8% on last week. Here’s how it’s fallen:

Wednesday: 66.0%
Thursday: 63.1%
Friday: 58.1%
Saturday: 52.4%
Sunday: 49.3%
Monday: 45.5%
Tuesday: 38.8%
Wednesday: 31.8%
 
Also Greater Manchester was well down today so had nothing to do with today's rise.

Bolton on 88 - under 100 for first time in 2 weeks. Lowest number in a month.

Stockport down again. Manchester down quite a bit and down 84 week to week.

Almost nowhere in GM had a bad day, Lots of week to week falls

The big rise today is because Delta is taking over the rest of the UK. The bad news.

The good news GM - just ike Bolton first did - appears to have gotten it under control surprisingly well and quickly.

Still well up on where they were a month ago but falling not rising after just 2 or 3 weeks of climb is good news in any sense.

Especially if the rest of the UK see a similar modest plateau and then fall.
 
frothy said:
I heard her, she should be sacked if she has the jab or not, horrible person and shouldn't be working with elderly and ill people with her attitude
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Based on my own experience the care sector is struggling like most to recruit staff. It's never been a glamorous choice anyway but the recent year or so has possibly put people off even more so.
 
twosips said:
Gut instinct is that this rise is starting to slow already. I think this is gonna be a small bump, and very manageable.
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No need for gut instinct in GM and now to a degree in the NW it is very clrearly plateauing and falling now.

The numbers over the past week are showing that and were flagged up by how easily Bolton got under control.

GM has followed the same path. Now starting to look like other parts of the NW is too.

The big rise today was in London. Up to 1168 - highest in many weeks.

South West also rising pretty scarily for such a small rural region.

75 three weeks ago - 128 two weeks ago - 275 last week - 610 today!

Probably driven by the warm weather and the seaside visitors to Devon and Corwall.

For context though right now the South West has 22 people in hospital and 2 on ventilators.

Though that will surely rise now.
 
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Healdplace said:
No need for gut instinct in GM and now to a degree in the NW it is very clrearly plateauing and falling now.

The numbers over the past week are showing that and were flagged up by how easily Bolton got under control.

GM has followed the same path. Now starting to look like other parts of the NW is too.

The big rise today was in London. Up to 1168 - highest in many weeks.
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Once again peak reached before it influenced the delay to “freedom day”.

will the nw be held back by the rest of the country come July 19?
 
ENGLAND cases, admissions, mv beds and deaths. by date of, not reporting date.

seven day averages to flatten noise. black dashed line is 4 or 5 days ago and data after it is very likely incomplete (and usually only goes up)

the purple line looks great, and may it stay that way, while the green line is not great.

(the various grey dashed lines indicate weeks since the start of case rises in Bolton)

cases_admissions_deaths.png
 
ell said:
Sadly already heard 3 under 30s say they won’t bother getting vaccinated now after Monday’s delay because “what’s the point?” Fingers crossed it’s just a knee jerk reaction
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They'll soon catch the real thing.
 
North West today up 140 to 2157. It has been around that all week.

GM today DOWN 89 to 925 - 42.8% is the lowest GM split of the NW in about 3 months.

North West week to week up just 45 from 2112 to 2157 - lowest wk to wk rise since Delta arrived.

GM week to week DOWN 137 - an even bigger differential for GM within the NW as was the day to day one.
 
My wife is a self employed tutor. Works from home. 8 pupils already cancelled this week due to schools telling them they have to self isolate. Worrying thing is they all attend 8 different schools
 
ctwrd said:
Once again peak reached before it influenced the delay to “freedom day”.

will the nw be held back by the rest of the country come July 19?
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If they flatten and fall as quickly as seems to have happened with Delta in the NW and it is starting to look like Scotland then 4 weeks from now everywhere might be over the worst.

But first in first out was always likely for the NW.

Perhaps every day the vaccines are having more and more of an influence on flattening the curve.
 
Didn't something akin to this kind of unexpected flattening and fall also occur in what looked like a giant Indian wave that was escalating out of control?
 
ctwrd said:
Once again peak reached before it influenced the delay to “freedom day”.

will the nw be held back by the rest of the country come July 19?
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Id say we are far from peaked yet as a country. its mainly hit 1 area of the country that has allowed some semblance of control with surge testing and vaccines. the Delta variant still has the rest of the country to hit yet.

it took nearly 3 months for the Kent variant to spread across the country from the initial epicentre. Delta has been community spread in NW for less than 8 weeks. odds are, and is being assumed by the Gov that the next 3/4 weeks it will hit full community spread in other areas.

Hopefully the fact that we seem to be flattening it well in the NW could help the rest of the country out a lot.
 
shackattack said:
Based on my own experience the care sector is struggling like most to recruit staff. It's never been a glamorous choice anyway but the recent year or so has possibly put people off even more so.
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It's no wonder people don't want to to it with the crap pay ect, but she just came across as a not very nice person that isn't suited for a job like that even though she said she's being doing it for 15 years, but for 13 of them years we didn't have Covid-19
 
grunge said:
we are far from peaked yet. its mainly hit 1 area of the country that has allowed some semblance of control with surge testing and vaccines. the Delta variant still has the rest of the country to hit yet.

it took nearly 3 months for the Kent variant to spread across the country from the initial epicentre. Delta has been community spread in NW for less than 8 weeks. odds are, and is being assumed by the Gov that the next 3/4 weeks it will hit full community spread in other areas.

Hopefully the fact that we seem to be flattening it well in the NW could help the rest of the country out a lot.
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Not really. Alpha (UK//Kent) was spotted exponentially increasing in early December. Its effect was worked out on 18th December confirmed on Dec 26th and lock down occurred on Jan 4(?).
The confirmation of the effect of Delta occurred on Monday.
Delta really isn't in the same ball park thanks to vaccination. Indeed it looks like deaths won't increase that much (if at all) and if the current pattern continues for 2 weeks we should open up and let it rip so it's all over and done with very quickly.
 
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Healdplace said:

South West also rising pretty scarily for such a small rural region.

75 three weeks ago - 128 two weeks ago - 275 last week - 610 today!

Probably driven by the warm weather and the seaside visitors to Devon and Cornwall.

For context though right now the South West has 22 people in hospital and 2 on ventilators.

Though that will surely rise now.
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I presume (?) the Government will analyse those 610 cases to see how many are in hospitality, shops, B & B s etc. etc.

Last year tourists (including me) flooded to Cornwall and Devon in July and August before the September restrictions without any significant impact on case numbers. Different variant, but still.

Strange death data from the biggest city in the South-West today. I assume admission data is lagging behind.;

1623861008562.png
 
Todays England hospital data.

Unfortunately still looking not so good for the North West.

There will be a lag between cases and hospital numbers so still going up here more than anywhere else. The flattening off should come in a week or so though.

England Patients UP 27 to 1057. Last week they fell by 3 to 876 - the weekly rise is going up every day.

There were 185 admissions (this is Monday as they are 2 days behind on this number always to account for testing results) - down from 187 day before

However, of these the NW added 72 - up from 66 yesterday - highest in months and the most when other regions are falling or steady.

NW patients rose by 30 to 379 - most other regions were up only small numbers and several fell.

That is up from 256 last week - so a 50% increase in 7 days. These numbers are still accelerating.

London (which fell by 12) is the next nearest on 277 patients - up just 7 on the week.

Same is true of ventilators - these are up again in England by 5 to 192. All 5 were in the NW - up to 75 of that 192. This is versus 45 out of 141 last week. So NW added 30 of the 51 increase across the whole country.

Hopefully these NW numbers will soon start to slow and reverse.

But the chances are as they do England numbers will still rise as the other areas will start to see the impact of rising Delta cases there.

So this wave is not over yet by any means. BUt there is good reason to hope it might not be a really big one.
 
unicorn said:
I presume (?) the Government will analyse those 610 cases to see how many are in hospitality, shops, B & B s etc. etc.

Last year tourists (including me) flooded to Cornwall and Devon in July and August before the September restrictions without any significant impact on case numbers. Different variant, but still.

Strange death data from the biggest city in the South-West today. I assume admission data is lagging behind.;

View attachment 19378
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10 days difference it says on there - 6 Jun v 16 Jun - so yes that will be why. As it is when most of the cases rise has occurred .That will be filtering into the SW numbers in coming days. Nothing much changed today. Up 1 patient to 23 and still 2 on ventilators.

My guess is the numbers will not be so bad in SW as in NW as I fear a lot of the NW patients will be those small percent who were not vaccinated despite being elligible who for reasons we see in areas like East Lancashire (Blackburn/Ribble Valley/Rossendale etc) where the biggest problem has been - even though the media focused on Bolton.

Whereas I suspect the younger people catching it in the South West might translate into fewer hospital cases.

Hopefully at least.

London is where we might start to see a NW like escalation soon.

4 week numbers here:- 295 from 3 wks ago v 573 two wks ago - v 994 last wk v 1168 today

So a less dramatic but still obvious rise here.



And North East too 66 from 3 wks ago v 122 on 2 wks ago v 302 last wk v 567 today.


These are all going to factor into risiong hospital numbders in coming weeks.

Though the NW suggests not to a level likely to be a major concern.

Guess we will soon know.
 
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