Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Northern Ireland data:

6 deaths - was 9 last wk.

342 cases - was 253 last wk

Positivity 15.4% - was 15.9% last wk

7 day total cases 2041 - down from 2047 yesterday - was 2377 last wk

49 care home outbreaks - down from 53 yesterday - was 80 last wk

Patients 418 - down from 434 yesterday - was 518 last wk

Ventilated 42 - down from 45 yesterday - was 53 last wk
 
Healdplace said:
You would hope so. But we have to balance that against the erosion of lockdown which is clearly waning - understandably - as more and more seem to rebel.
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I was having a read a few days ago about how pandemics end. There would seem to be two ways out, either

1) Medical eg incidence and death rates plummet -or-
2) Social eg the fear of the disease wanes and people just want to get on with life

Almost every disease that has developed over history is still around, the plague was in the news a while ago no less. Smallpox seems to be the only disease that has been completely eradicated by vaccination and so it was always likely that the 'end' of the pandemic would come when people simply got fed up of it, probably due to deaths and ‘sense of danger’ disappearing rather than waiting for it to be eradicated. As spring is in the air and deaths are falling I think the government need to be very conscious that they don’t try and implement policies that everyone will just ignore as it will lose them any control And credibility they’ve regained thanks to vaccinations.

The medics don’t have to consider the economic and societal impact of their advice (and rightly so) - that is for the politicians to muse over but there will come a point when the medical advice may end up being seen by society as too cautious when weighed up against the other push and pull factors going on and that people are really getting to the end of their tether now. Despite the misgivings and narrative on here, I do think people have been very patient and have largely done what asked but if the 'reward' never materialises and there are always new hypotehtical reasons or 'just in case' to drag things out, then option 2) will come ever closer.
 
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Cases 3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today - for the three nations other than England

2538 v 2105 v 1493 v 1317 Today

Still going down but the plateau is showing here clearly as it is in England.

Looks like we might struggle to suppress much below where we are now which is a concern for those wanting lockdown ending in 3 weeks as right now I doubt that would be the decision in any major way.

Depends I guess what target they do have in mind. I just doubt it will be as high as 12,000 or so which looks about where the plateau is forming in the UK.

The vaccine might yet do this but it is unclear if it stops transmission so will lower case numbers enough and 3 weeks might not be enough time to find out for sure.

I am pretty certain we will not rush this time into freedom.
 
Healdplace said:
Also hard not to wonder if the mutations are not speeding up the point where we reach a virus that is liveable with by humanity. The end game really for both us and the virus as it creates a balance point that sees us stop trying to eradicate it and the virus needing to respond to ways it is being eradicated.
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I've seen speculation along these lines, but I don't think there's any real evidence for it. But it's not something I have any expertise in whatever.

Good article here on evolution of the virus. Kicker

There is no general evolutionary law for predicting how these relationships will pan out, and certainly no justification for evoking the inevitability of decreased virulence.

theconversation.com

Will coronavirus really evolve to become less deadly?

The coronavirus is evolving, but which path it will take is far from certain.
theconversation.com theconversation.com
 
Just seen N Ireland extending lockdown to 1 April and they are doing pretty well by UK standards.

I suspect we will not go much beyond experimenting with school returns either before Easter.
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland update:

57 deaths - was 48 last week

685 cases - was 830 last week

3.8% positivity - was 4.0% last week

1261 in hospital - down 56 in day - was 1499 last week

95 ventilated - down 4 in day - was 107 last week


Deaths aside being up that is more good falls in patients and cases
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Might seem a daft Question but does Ventilated mean actually being on a Ventilator, or does it include other ways of helping people breath that are not as intrusive as being Ventilated?
 
Healdplace said:
Just seen N Ireland extending lockdown to 1 April and they are doing pretty well by UK standards.

I suspect we will not go much beyond experimenting with school returns either before Easter.
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Always said it’d be Easter before we open things up properly, it’s what makes the most sense.
 
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