Coronavirus (2021) thread

[give it to gordon]

I have had another letter mate, telling me to shield till the 31st of March.
If you have been told to shield previously, I would expect you should continue to do so.

Our local sorting office is short staff because of another out break of covid, so that might have delayed a letter. I just wish I knew one way or the other ..

 

[Healdplace]

The Zoe App has been updated to model in various factors and try to make it more accurate.

It now predicts we are around 10,000 cases instead of 12 - 13 K as it was.

However, it also notes some other things it seems.

That, as you will know if you follow my nightly regional reports here. that the south is largely going down fast (all 4 areas were under 1000 cases there yesterday) but the Midlands and North West are still having some trouble and driving the cases we have.

NW is the highest region and now double the southern ones - even London - who were in Januaery many times the level of NW.

GM Is struggling within the NW especially. Now over 50% of the NW total for the first time in several months.

The Zoe app seems to add to this that the NW cases are being driven by people in their 30s interestingly.

This should hopefully mean that it will not impact much the reduction in deaths and hospital patients but also that high case levels might stick around as these 30 somethings are not likely to be vaccinated in any numbers for a month or two yet.

The question is how much do cases really matter? If they are cases that are largely mild symptoms and we still ask the vulnerable to be more cautious as the vaccine impact kicks in then hospitalisations and deaths will likely not result in the way they would if cases were spread more evenly amongst vulnerable groups.

We are going to be living with Covid like we live with flu in the mid term at least for near perpetuity.

At some stage we will have to stop counting cases in the way we never have done for flu. Especially as I suspect before the year is out it will be back to killing more elderly people than Covid does.

A day will come when this thread is redundant.

Roll on that day.

 

[LangleyBlue1970]

Genuine question but if they were in school as normal and outgrow the uniform what do you do normally? When my kids outgrew their uniform we had to buy new regardless of when time of the year it was. I know you can get away maybe with trousers being a cm short etc but once they outgrow their shoes you can't mess around with their feet.

What I mean is every August people buy new uniform don't they. By now it's probably had one or two items replaced and should last until July. Anything bought last August has had a month out of it, max. In our case the youngest is fine and she should be ok but the elder two will need a lot, and as I said the eldest leaves in July so it is new stuff to last 3 months. Then there is the stock shortage, which is inevitable.

 

[meltonblue]

The Zoe App has been updated to model in various factors and try to make it more accurate.

It now predicts we are around 10,000 cases instead of 12 - 13 K as it was.

However, it also notes some other things it seems.

That, as you will know if you follow my nightly regional reports here. that the south is largely going down fast (all 4 areas were under 1000 cases there yesterday) but the Midlands and North West are still having some trouble and driving the cases we have.

NW is the highest region and now double the southern ones - even London - who were in Januaery many times the level of NW.

GM Is struggling within the NW especially. Now over 50% of the NW total for the first time in several months.

The Zoe app seems to add to this that the NW cases are being driven by people in their 30s interestingly.

This should hopefully mean that it will not impact much the reduction in deaths and hospital patients but also that high case levels might stick around as these 30 somethings are not likely to be vaccinated in any numbers for a month or two yet.

The question is how much do cases really matter? If they are cases that are largely mild symptoms and we still ask the vulnerable to be more cautious as the vaccine impact kicks in then hospitalisations and deaths will likely not result in the way they would if cases were spread more evenly amongst vulnerable groups.

We are going to be living with Covid like we live with flu in mod term at least near perpetuity.

At some stage we will have to stop counting cases in the way we never have done for flu. Especially as I suspect before the year is out it will be back to killing more elderly people than Covid does.

A day will come when this thread is redundant.

Roll on that day.

Whilst we’re still discovering more about long covid in particular, cases are still hugely important. Agree with the sentiment in general though.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Peston needs new batteries so he can ask his question at normal speed instead of taking twiiiice as loooong as now.

Most people probably forget what he is asking by the time he gets around to finishing asking it.

I guess its his thing.

I think someone previously mentioned that the way he talks is due to him suffering from a stammer when he was younger.

 

[mancity1]

It is exactly the same effect I refer to daily in the England hospital deaths update here around 2 pm.

The percentage of under 60s has markedly risen in recent weeks.

They were around 12 or 13% yesterday - double what they were in early January.

NOT because more of them are dying. Fewer are. But because more older ones are now not dying than younger ones as they have had the vaccine so this inevitably means it tips the balance especially when the overall numbers are about a third of what they were - as is true of both deaths and patients

Healdplace are there as many currently infected patients as indicated on the attached below in the UK?

1.5mill seems way over the actual number of active cases assuming 4.1m recorded to date.

What is the actual number I would have thought it around 150k about 10 per cent of the number shown.

I can assure you the number of currently infected patients listed in Australia is nowhere near the number stated.

Its currently 44 ( all in hotel and home quarantine ) not the 1879 reported.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,128,674 Cases and 2,955,125 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Healdplace]

I think someone previously mentioned that the way he talks is due to him suffering from a stammer when he was younger.

In that case I withdraw my comment and congratulate him on overcoming that as he has.

 

[Healdplace]

Good to see Captain Tom's funeral on Sunday will be given full military honours and Church Bells around the UK will be allowed to ring out in his honour.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Genuine question but if they were in school as normal and outgrow the uniform what do you do normally? When my kids outgrew their uniform we had to buy new regardless of when time of the year it was. I know you can get away maybe with trousers being a cm short etc but once they outgrow their shoes you can't mess around with their feet.

A lot of parents will be on furlough or out of work, financial circumstances will have changed for thousands of parents, while outgoings remain the same.

You are correct, can't mess about with feet, especially school shoes, so where do kids go to try them on and get fitted?

They can't, same goes for bespoke school uniform.

'normally' you will get a good idea of where your kids are at and when the time to buy during the ongoing school term.

However, most kids haven't put on a uniform for six months and that's the problem, there's no weekly gauge, irrespective of affordability or sourcing issues.

Times that by ten for people who just can't afford it right now.

 

[Healdplace]

Healdplace are there as many currently infected patients as indicated on the attached below in the UK?

1.5mill seems way over the actual number of active cases assuming 4.1m recorded to date.

What is the actual number I would have thought it around 150k about 10 per cent of the number shown.

I can assure you the number of currently infected patients listed in Australia is nowhere near the number stated.

Its currently 44 ( all in hotel and home quarantine ) not the 1879 reported.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 137,128,674 Cases and 2,955,125 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

The number of patients with Covid in England hospitals last night was 14, 137 - with approx 2698 more in the other 3 nations - so 16, 835 in the UK.

A week ago England was at 17, 730, two weeks ago at 23, 020, 3 weeks ago at 28, 539 and a month ago at 32, 938.

It peaked at around 34, 000 in England in mid January.

Other 3 UK nations have fallen at similar levels in the past month.

The UK peaked at 39, 244 on 18 January - the peak of this current wave. When there were also 856 deaths in England hospitals alone on that actual day - not reported that day. As the daily reported numbers you see in the media are deaths from maybe 30 or 40 separate dates over recent weeks all added up.

Day by day since then both these numbers have plummeted.

The latest 5 day total for England hospitals deaths on a single day - Feb 17 - has just 287 deaths versus that 856 just 4 weeks earlier.

Lockdown and vaccines have changed things in a huge way with patient numbers and deaths in just 4 weeks as you can see.

Ventilated patients have plummeted too. From in England at the peak mid January of 3736 to just 2072 last night

Again these falls are mirrored in hospital data in the other 3 nations.