Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Scotland vaccination data

1, 465, 241 first doses given - 19, 753 yesterday - up from 13, 456 day before and v 32, 814 last week.

43, 203 second dose given - 5861 yesterday - up from 1863 day before and v 2636 last week

Almost one third of adult population now had first dose and 82% of those aged 65 - 70 - with near 100% of age groups above.

Now also vaccinating on the 60 - 65 age group and those younger with added needs including those with mild learning difficulty diagnoses and unpaid carers looking after the vulnerable.

 

[Len Rum]

The question is how much do cases really matter? If they are cases that are largely mild symptoms and we still ask the vulnerable to be more cautious as the vaccine impact kicks in then hospitalisations and deaths will likely not result in the way they would if cases were spread more evenly amongst vulnerable groups.

We are going to be living with Covid like we live with flu in the mid term at least for near perpetuity.

At some stage we will have to stop counting cases in the way we never have done for flu. Especially as I suspect before the year is out it will be back to killing more elderly people than Covid does.

A day will come when this thread is redundant.

Roll on that day.

A lot of analysis today on the Govt. plan which state that the number of cases do matter and that the Govt are prioritising reduction in hospitalisations instead of reduction in cases.
Tha argument goes that the rise in cases due to schools, non retail opening etc. will give the virus more chance to mutate, potentially reducing vaccine effectiveness and leading to more deaths, hospitalisations ( before a modified vaccine can be developed), long covid etc. Latest analysis says that between now and June next year 30k deaths are already baked in under the most optimistic scenario.
Loose border controls in the plan do not help either with new strains of the virus.
The Government plan prioritises opening the economy over controlling the pandemic. There are break points before each new lockdown restriction is lifted ( which is sensible), but for the reasons mentioned above increased cases means the break point criteria may not be met.
The problem of course on giving priority to reducing the number of cases rather than hospitalisations is that the recovery program takes longer and economic recovery and return to normal life is delayed.
The big conundrum.

 

[True_Blue69]

Thanks mate. Can never tell sometimes.

Throughout any school year people will replace things and if they get that school year out of it then all is good. If it's all bought new in August though and come October they're all told to stay home, with no idea when they'll return, if it's left like this now till March it is inevitable things won't fit. So things that would usually get replaced as time goes by all of a sudden needs the entire lot replacing - with just a few months of the school year left.

The eldest two were told they wouldn't be going back, with the eldest leaving anyway. So she now has to have uniform bought for her that will be useless after July as she goes college after that.

I know people will really find that difficult, especially if they have 2 or 3 or more kids needing kitting out

Maybe the schools could do something if there will be so much unworn uniform going spare, where it can be offered to younger pupils? It will have only been 2.5 months since they were last in school so not sure it’s a massive issue personally, like someone said they would have had to buy new uniform anyway.

 

[Healdplace]

Of course cases matter whilst we are in lockdown or still tracking as high as we are and I am not expecting any removal of that data or focus on it in the next 6 months.

But I do think before this year is out we will be taking the public mind off cases as much as possible as Covid is never going to be at zero cases or likely near to it. And our testing is now so good we are finding far more than we did last year. Even last autumn.

Next winter there will have to be less focus on daily cases or any kind of normality will not return.

People who need to know WILL be counting cases in perpetuity probably. As they do flu cases

My point is not about the experts tracking them. It is about the public perception revolving around them as it will even more when death numbers fall hopefully to sub 100 numbers regularly and cases might end up looking more of a problem because they are never going to fall that low again with our testing capacity.

Managing public awareness of why X number of cases is not a number we should track every day to see how we are doing is the scenario we will have to confront at some time soon.

The world has to revert to some kind of normality where Covid is A story not THE story.

How we handle day to day reporting is a big part of that.

 

[True_Blue69]

A lot of parents will be on furlough or out of work, financial circumstances will have changed for thousands of parents, while outgoings remain the same.

You are correct, can't mess about with feet, especially school shoes, so where do kids go to try them on and get fitted?

They can't, same goes for bespoke school uniform.

'normally' you will get a good idea of where your kids are at and when the time to buy during the ongoing school term.

However, most kids haven't put on a uniform for six months and that's the problem, there's no weekly gauge, irrespective of affordability or sourcing issues.

Times that by ten for people who just can't afford it right now.

which schools have been closed for 6 months? have I missed something?

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 372 - was 474 last Tuesday.

This is always one of the biggest totals of the week because of weekend catch up.

Only tomorrow would usually be higher.

So that fall week to week is good.

North West was at 58 - so 16%

High but way down on last week which was almost 25%

 

[Gray]

So the "United Kingdom" is once again shown to be a non-existant entity as all the self governing regions go off doing their own thing.

What really is the point of it?

 

[Nellies left peg]

How on earth do families on benefits or low wages afford that ?

Cut the arms off and call it a gilet

 

[Healdplace]

So the "United Kingdom" is once again shown to be a non-existant entity as all the self governing regions go off doing their own thing.

What really is the point of it?

Its a union with flexibility to self govern,

Bit like the United Nations.

Happily we do not say get rid of that because China and Russia might act differently to us.

When you are at least chatting and talking and trying to make overall policies where you can with flexibility to suit local politics or people - at least you have a degree of shared ideas that can benefit the whole and consensus on some things not free for all on everything.

A pandemic demands some unity and common goals both in the UK and the world but does not mean flexibility to try different ideas should be discarded as often that is how we learn what works best.

 

[Rammy Blue]

In that case I withdraw my comment and congratulate him on overcoming that as he has.

He’s still a wanker though.