Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Summerbuzz]

And?

Andy fucking Pandy

 

[Gabriel]

I know @Gabriel has mentioned that they've opened nightclubs etc but this is quite extraordinary.

They decided to open up everything at the end of June ( a freedom day if you will), and people interpreted that as a green light, so generally no more face masks, no more distancing, and pubs and clubs were open, packed, and, well, coughs and sneezes…

The government tonight announced it was reinstating a number of measures: closing bars and restaurants at midnight, reintroducing the 1.5m distancing rule in hospitality, and closing nightclubs completely. As you can deduce, these restrictions are targeted at younger people, who unsurprisingly constitute the majority of cases. Yet, as the government now acknowledges, these young people have family and friends, so the cases are only heading in one direction. Who knew?…

 

[BlueHammer85]

They decided to open up everything at the end of June ( a freedom day if you will), and people interpreted that as a green light, so generally no more face masks, no more distancing, and pubs and clubs were open, packed, and, well, coughs and sneezes…

The government tonight announced it was reinstating a number of measures: closing bars and restaurants at midnight, reintroducing the 1.5m distancing rule in hospitality, and closing nightclubs completely. As you can deduce, these restrictions are targeted at younger people, who unsurprisingly constitute the majority of cases. Yet, as the government now acknowledges, these young people have family and friends, so the cases are only heading in one direction. Who knew?…

Sunday night. Pubs will be rammed. Houses will be rammed. Social distancing and any other measures are going to be thrown out the window once everyone’s had a few bevvies. It’s going to have an impact

 

[ayrshire_blue]

They decided to open up everything at the end of June ( a freedom day if you will), and people interpreted that as a green light, so generally no more face masks, no more distancing, and pubs and clubs were open, packed, and, well, coughs and sneezes…

The government tonight announced it was reinstating a number of measures: closing bars and restaurants at midnight, reintroducing the 1.5m distancing rule in hospitality, and closing nightclubs completely. As you can deduce, these restrictions are targeted at younger people, who unsurprisingly constitute the majority of cases. Yet, as the government now acknowledges, these young people have family and friends, so the cases are only heading in one direction. Who knew?…

Crazy that they went ahead with opening up at those levels all at once. I hope they get it under control, but 600 odd % increase is absolutely huge considering the rises we thought were big from Scotland at similar base rates a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Gabriel]

Sunday night. Pubs will be rammed. Houses will be rammed. Social distancing and any other measures are going to be thrown out the window once everyone’s had a few bevvies. It’s going to have an impact

Yes, it’s hard to imagine that people will show restraint.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 615 / 515 / UP 100 Testing positive 11.8%

Rochdale 557 / 478 / UP 79 Testing positive 11.7 %

Wigan 550 / 509 / UP 41 Testing positive 11.0%

Salford 522 / 496 / UP 28 Testing positive 11.4%

Trafford 522 / 436 / UP 86 Testing positive 8.9%

Manchester 497 / 532 / DOWN 35 Testing positive 12.1%

Tameside 477 / 395 / UP 82 Testing positive 9.7%

Bury 376 / 404 / DOWN 28 Testing positive 11.1%

Stockport 376 / 323 / UP 53 Testing positive 8.8%

Bolton 325 / 298 / UP 27 Testing positive 12.1%



Oldham way up top now. Cannot recall last time GM had anyone over 600 - I think back in the Autumn wave.

With Rochdale now skyrocketing into second spot with its neighbour after some big case numbers of late.

Wigan, Salford and Trafford all up in the 500s now after some big recent numbers.

They re all above Manchester who are now falling week to week for first time in many weeks. In fact despite clocking up one short of 500 cases today Manchester almost paradoxically is the best in GM right now. Going down the most and into the 400 club.

Pop Scores - remember - take population of the borough into account so Manchester being so big is expected to have far more cases than Rochdale or Oldham which is why their numbers are lower in total but much worse in reality

Same applies to Bury and Stockport still locked on the same score at the better end of the numbers. Bury on 128 cases and Stockport on 210 sounds like a mismatch but because Stockport is bigger than Bury the Pop Score evens out those expected cases to very similar. Hence they both went up more or less the same and the lowest in GM today which the raw case numbers would never inform you.

But five boroughs over 500 is as far as I can recall a GM first. Numbers are not getting better fast at all,

Bolton still lowest Pop but it had its worst day in ages today and on 325 is back up to the heights it was at on 6 June. Not that far below where it peaked, Quite a disturbuing day for a borough we thoight was out of the woods. Though it still did better than everyone else other than Bury and Stockport,

Trafford case numbers remain a lot worse than Stockport and today lost another a huge36 in one go on its overall Pop Score to now be 169 behind Stockport . Showing how hard Trafford has things at the moment As Stockport is well up on normal levels too.

Stockport up 71 now on 8791 but Trafford up by 107 - to 8960.

Bolton up 70 to 12, 116.

Oldham up the most today - 126 - highest daily Pop rise in GM this year to 11, 765.

Manchester up 90 - now on 12, 133 . And finally claiming from Bolton the title for worst Pop Score across the entire pandemic, A title it has never held up to now. Ironic as it is doing pretty well comparatively right now. But 500 cases a day is still 500.

Rochdale up 120 - truly keeping up with the neighbour Oldham which it has matched step for step most of the pandemic - but now on 11, 662 and happily not quite as bad as Oldham but its a close run thing with these two giant Pop rises today .

Salford rose by 104 its most in ages - to 11, 416.

Bury up 67 actually had the lowest rise today up to 11, 105.

Wigan up by 108 to gatecrash the 11K club with a bang - up to11, 073.


So just Stockport and Trafford - now in the UPPER 8000s - and Tameside a rung above up by 105 today onto 9824. Looking odds on to enter the 10 K club on the day England w..... Not going to jinx it!

And Trafford and Stockport will reach the 9K club not long after - Trafford almost certainly tomorrow. Stockport probably next week.

 

[twosips]

Sunday night. Pubs will be rammed. Houses will be rammed. Social distancing and any other measures are going to be thrown out the window once everyone’s had a few bevvies. It’s going to have an impact

I think we're gonna see a very quick spike and I honestly think after that it'll come down a lot. It's gonna burn through a *lot* of that susceptible population as a result of the football this week. A painful way to get there, but it will undoubtedly push us towards the herd immunity threshold a lot, lot quicker.

 

[Gabriel]

Crazy that they went ahead with opening up at those levels all at once. I hope they get it under control, but 600 odd % increase is absolutely huge considering the rises we thought were big from Scotland at similar base rates a couple of weeks ago.

Remember, the testing centers have been unable to meet demand, so the figures are conservative.
Difficult to see how you can get the genie back in the bottle when it’s lying at your feet in smithereens. The task of containment is made harder by the fact that schools don’t all close at the same time for summer, so in the north they close today, in the centre next Friday, and the south the week after. That will make it much easier for it to spread, alas.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

I think we're gonna see a very quick spike and I honestly think after that it'll come down a lot. It's gonna burn through a *lot* of that susceptible population as a result of the football this week. A painful way to get there, but it will undoubtedly push us towards the herd immunity threshold a lot, lot quicker.

I agree.

There is a substantial proportion of none or partially vaccinated people who are mainly at lower risk of hospitalisation or death and I'd expect cases to rip through them rapidly. It is wishful thinking to expect more or less 100% vaccination rates as that has never happened previously with any other vaccine. 6% of the over 80s aren't vaccinated for example and many younger people won't bother.

There is hardly any social distancing with younger groups right now so 'Freedom Day' won't make much difference. It is a vaccination & herd immunity hybrid.

 

[Healdplace]

GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 77.0% / 59.0% V 77.0% / 58.7% Up 0.3

BURY 78.4% / 60.0% V 78.3% / 59.6% Up 0.5

MANCHESTER 61.6% / 40.7% V 61.5% / 40.2% Up 0.6

OLDHAM 73.3% / 55.8% V 73.2% / 55.5% Up 0.4

ROCHDALE 74.6% / 56.3% V 74.5% / 55.8% Up 0.6

SALFORD 68.6 % / 46.7% V 68.4% / 46.4% Up 0.5

STOCKPORT 82.9% / 63.6% V 82.8% / 63.3% Up 0.4

TAMESIDE 78.3% / 61.3% V 78.2 / 60.5% Up 0.9

TRAFFORD 80.5% / 62.1% V 80.3% / 61.6% Up 0.7

WIGAN 82.0% / 63.2% V 81.9% / 62.8% Up 0.5


Bolton up least only up 0.3% today.

Tameside best again going up an impressive 0.9%

 

[Del_Bosque]

Couple of good bits of news for the weekend

Seemingly good news on antivirals (which has been very scarce



Excellent news on vaccines against Delta

 

[BlueAnorak]

It came from India, lol, do you think we are the only country who let some Indians in?

Portugal (immigrant population from Goa) for one.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Some pretty worrying numbers tonight. North West shot up to 6487 - highest yet and 2500 up from where it was for several days up to 2 or 3 days ago,

Bolton too over 200 cases today, Highest since late May.

With vaccination, Delta cases are irrelevant. Hospitalisations and Deaths are all that count.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

The UK growth rate of new infections is still slowing down. Today’s *seven-day average* is up 34.9% on last week.
Wednesday: 42.8%
Tuesday: 49.0%
Monday: 53.2%
Sunday: 66.9%
Saturday: 66.9%

And yet someone will use the words exponential and growth in the same sentence…….

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Not everything needs to be doom and gloom.

Based on latest (09-Jul) data. Using the dates from Sep 20th to Nov 11th to align with the current wave, at this point in the previous wave we had: - 4 times as many covid +ve daily admissions. - 6 times covid +ve patients in hospital. - 18 times the daily covid +ve deaths.

 

[uweblue]

400 kids sent home today in my daughters school. Last week before break up.

It's madness

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

With vaccination, Delta cases are irrelevant. Hospitalisations and Deaths are all that count.

Indeed they are. Once we have achieved the final stage of the govt 'roadmap' on 19 July expect the next lockdown within weeks at most.

 

[hammocity]

I think we're gonna see a very quick spike and I honestly think after that it'll come down a lot. It's gonna burn through a *lot* of that susceptible population as a result of the football this week. A painful way to get there, but it will undoubtedly push us towards the herd immunity threshold a lot, lot quicker.

I don't wish too much pain on anyone but the anti vaxers who catch it only have themselves to blame, as my mate said "wake up and smell the cup of coffee" ( he also said, quoting Bacon Face at Salford FC, "it's itchy bum time)"

 

[frothy]

Remember, the testing centers have been unable to meet demand, so the figures are conservative.
Difficult to see how you can get the genie back in the bottle when it’s lying at your feet in smithereens. The task of containment is made harder by the fact that schools don’t all close at the same time for summer, so in the north they close today, in the centre next Friday, and the south the week after. That will make it much easier for it to spread, alas.

Went past the one on Kirkmanshulme Lane yesterday morning and it looked very quiet?

 

[Rammy Blue]

Went past the one on Kirkmanshulme Lane yesterday morning and it looked very quiet?

He lives in the Netherlands.