Coronavirus (2021) thread

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I'm intrigued with the news that NHS staff may be exempt from isolation.

Government fearing a big rise in hospital numbers or almost chucking the towel in as if staff vaccinated or not are wandering around hospitals then it's going to be a super spreader area where people are ill/have conditions so are weak already.
 
blue b4 the moon said:
I'm intrigued with the news that NHS staff may be exempt from isolation.

Government fearing a big rise in hospital numbers or almost chucking the towel in as if staff vaccinated or not are wandering around hospitals then it's going to be a super spreader area where people are ill/have conditions so are weak already.
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It’s only those fully vaccinated isn’t it?
 


I encourage everyone to spend 5 minutes of their day reading through this thread from a modeller who has been quoted previously by PHE members, iSAGE and JBMurdoch of the financial times.

tl;dr his recommendation is to open up as planned on the 19th but with only slightly further mitigations than what the government is currently proposing, particularly surrounding nightclubs given the situation in the Netherlands which we should be learning from.

Pros and cons of opening up on the 19th and of delaying are both explained in thread.
 
BlueAnorak said:
I reckon the whole country will be isolating within 2 weeks.
I have to isolate for 10 days starting last Wednesday as my partners son had a positive test this morning.
Even though I have no symptoms, am double jabbed and have had 2 -ve LF tests since I saw him on Wednesday.
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Pain in the arse, isn’t it? I’m exactly same boat, feel fine and have had covid in my house for approx 11 days now since the kids caught it and probably were infectious.
 
BlueAnorak said:
I reckon the whole country will be isolating within 2 weeks.
I have to isolate for 10 days starting last Wednesday as my partners son had a positive test this morning.
Even though I have no symptoms, am double jabbed and have had 2 -ve LF tests since I saw him on Wednesday.
Click to expand...
they won't, because more and more people will just not bother with the app or giving details and won't get tested either.
 
ayrshire_blue said:


I encourage everyone to spend 5 minutes of their day reading through this thread from a modeller who has been quoted previously by PHE members, iSAGE and JBMurdoch of the financial times.

tl;dr his recommendation is to open up as planned on the 19th but with only slightly further mitigations than what the government is currently proposing, particularly surrounding nightclubs given the situation in the Netherlands which we should be learning from.

Pros and cons of opening up on the 19th and of delaying are both explained in thread.
Click to expand...

Interesting. He talks about a vaccine passport for nightclubs, indoor events etc. To an extent that would delay the attendance of young people at nightclubs, gigs etc by a month as most have only had one. My 20 and 19 year old still have at least 4 weeks to go until their second dose.
 
Thanks Ayrshire. Much in line with that thinking of a Summer wave is better than a winter one. And his modeling here makes sense.

If indeed hospitalisations top out at 9000 I will be relieved as we are a third of the way there already. And it is certainly more sustainable in July and August than December and January when we will already have many more in hospital from the usual winter problems.

That was imo the main reason we are going ahead with rising cases It is the best of two options. Not ideal but better than what may occur if we delay,
 
Gabriel said:
I imagine many will have indeed been asked to isolate, though whether they all heed that call is moot.
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Honestly they need to change the advice for double vaccinated. Maybe everyone.
Isolate if you have symptoms otherwise have a 3 lateral flow tests 1 every 2 days and isolate pending a PCR test if one comes up positive.
 
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blue b4 the moon said:
I'm intrigued with the news that NHS staff may be exempt from isolation.

Government fearing a big rise in hospital numbers or almost chucking the towel in as if staff vaccinated or not are wandering around hospitals then it's going to be a super spreader area where people are ill/have conditions so are weak already.
Click to expand...
My daughter thinks the proposal is based on -ve daily LF tests and a weekly PCR test. Thats been the discussion with hospital management anyway.
Not that they'll really know, this guidance comes down from on high.
 
Scotland data

7 deaths - was 3 last week

2190 cases - was 3108 last week

9.0% positivity - was 9.6% last week

435 patients - was 427 yesterday & 306 last week

42 ventilated icu beds - was 39 yesterday & 25 last week


The cases looking more hopeful and positivity down again,

Deaths and hospital numbers still going up but to be expected and these will lag and we may see reductions in due course from the recent drop in case numbers. Be surprising if we did not.

IF Scotland and NW both peak around the 500/600 in hospital and 100 maximum on ventilators I think that will be OK when the same things occur in all the other regions in coming weeks.

Though we do not yet know if Scotland and NW HAVE peaked or are just in a lull

The many who commented on my concerns at the NW numbers jumping yesterday miss the point by saying numbers do not matter,

They actually still do as - even though the translation into hospital and death is much reduced the link remains and cases reflect by how high they go how sustainably high hospital data WILL go in coming weeks.
 
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The most recent episode of Washington Week here in the USA confirmed what I believed would happen - science-denying red-state Republicans are under-vaccinated and 99.5% of COVID-19 casualties are not vaccinated.

It's grim - but Darwinian evolution - ironically not endorsed by those dying - may wipe out the science deniers in 3 or so generations.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
The most recent episode of Washington Week here in the USA confirmed what I believed would happen - science-denying red-state Republicans are under-vaccinated and 99.5% of COVID-19 casualties are not vaccinated.

It's grim - but Darwinian evolution - ironically not endorsed by those dying - may wipe out the science deniers in 3 or so generations.
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Natural selection
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
The most recent episode of Washington Week here in the USA confirmed what I believed would happen - science-denying red-state Republicans are under-vaccinated and 99.5% of COVID-19 casualties are not vaccinated.

It's grim - but Darwinian evolution - ironically not endorsed by those dying - may wipe out the science deniers in 3 or so generations.
Click to expand...
I just spoke to my Mum this morning and she said that she was surprised that Germany were letting Americans in (no idea if she just made that up or what). I said yes but the U.S have vaccinated a lot of people and the ones that haven't been vaccinated probably haven't even heard of Germany.
 
Northern Ireland data:

1 death was 0 last week

445 cases - was 605 yesterday 460 and last wk. So down on both,

All we get at weekends,
 
Barcon said:
I just spoke to my Mum this morning and she said that she was surprised that Germany were letting Americans in (no idea if she just made that up or what). I said yes but the U.S have vaccinated a lot of people and the ones that haven't been vaccinated probably haven't even heard of Germany.
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They must know it’s in Europeland :-)
 
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