Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BobKowalski]

If I may, BK, when you were out and about yesterday, roughly what percentage of people were wearing face masks?

In the Netherlands, it remains mandatory on public transport, so practically full compliance, yet in public places it remains at the individual’s discretion, so I’d hazard well below 10% compliance now. And that estimate hasn’t altered since cases increased.

Excluding the optician where they won’t see anyone without a mask and that will continue after the 19th as they are classed as an NHS service, it was the vast majority in Sainsbury’s. I only saw two without a mask.

My wife audits shops so she visits a lot of shops and we did two Tesco’s on Thursday. Again vast majority wearing a mask, a few more not wearing in one store than the other and that may be down to location (I’m showing my prejudice here).

Footfall was limited, no store was really busy and I felt comfortable being there.

Remove the restrictions on masks then I suspect a majority will not wear them in shops. I could be wrong.

 

[Manchester33]

I asked this question the other day. If we are not close to herd immunity WHAT is the data we get every week telling us that I post in here that over 90% as of 2 weeks ago had antibodies in the best UK nation and not much below in the rest and every single week it rises by several % points from vaccination and catching it.

These numbers must mean something unless 99% is not herd immunity. It has to be say 1000%.

Or is there no such thing with Covid due to regular mutation?

Even at 90% there's still around 6m people who have no antibodies. These people are likely to be of similar demographics (younger) and therefore likely to spread it among each other.

This wave has been the perfect storm. Pretty bad weather (so people are indoors), England being amazing in the Euros (so lots of events and social occasions), it's over a year since the pandemic started and people are getting sick of the restrictions and those restrictions have been eased.

Scotland shows us that schools closing slows down the spread. That's where it's spreading.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I asked this question the other day. If we are not close to herd immunity WHAT is the data we get every week telling us that I post in here that over 90% as of 2 weeks ago had antibodies in the best UK nation and not much below in the rest and every single week it rises by several % points - one assumes both from vaccination and catching it.

These numbers must mean something unless 99% is not herd immunity which we are almost at by now in some areas, Or does it have to be say 1000%.

Or is there no such thing with Covid due to regular mutation?

I think it's twofold. First, the 90% is of adults, not the whole population, so overstates the level of immunity.

Second, infection with a previous variant or just a single dose doesn't give anywhere near full protection vs delta.

The modelling I posted yesterday takes this into account, and predicts there's a lot more infections to come yet.

 

[BobKowalski]

This is my hunch as well. Especially the cotton type washable masks we all wear, and the fact that most people don't wear them 'properly' over the nose anyway.

As I say, it's only a hunch and I'm not a medical professional so could be talking complete shite, but I think the fuss over masks has been massively overblown and their effect is more psychological - seeing them reminds people there's a pandemic so they're likely to be a *little bit* more careful about distancing, hygiene etc.

I think this is why such a fuss over wearing them has been made over the last year, it's about instilling social habits.

Agree on the psychological effect and instilling social habits, but Covid is an airborne transmitted virus so anything that prevents it getting airborne surely has to make a difference. I wear FFP2 masks which helps block airborne transmission so again that has to make a difference.

 

[Healdplace]

Even at 90% there's still around 6m people who have no antibodies. These people are likely to be of similar demographics (younger) and therefore likely to spread it among each other.

This wave has been the perfect storm. Pretty bad weather (so people are indoors), England being amazing in the Euros (so lots of events and social occasions), it's over a year since the pandemic started and people are getting sick of the restrictions and those restrictions have been eased.

Scotland shows us that schools closing slows down the spread. That's where it's spreading.

I understand that but I am asking the experts here IS there a herd immunity point at all with Covid and if so what is it?

Because we do appear to have made a decision that we pursue this aim via getting the old ones vaccinated and the young ones infected by going out there and doing stuff.

Nothing else makes sense of the tactics.

So are they working on a real premise or is herd immunity a mirage not in touching distance of happening - even if it comes at a heavy price?

 

[Healdplace]

I think it's twofold. First, the 90% is of adults, not the whole population, so overstates the level of immunity.

Second, infection with a previous variant or just a single dose doesn't give anywhere near full protection vs delta.

The modelling I posted yesterday takes this into account, and predicts there's a lot more infections to come yet.

That makes sense, Thank you, So why do we seem to be pursuing this - get infected or get vaccinated asap policy? If scientifically it is a flawed strategy,

The scientists backing Boris must think differently - though they looked rather on edge yesterday it would surely be their duty to tell him given this is such a high stakes poker game that needs to be driven by science not politics.

 

[BobKowalski]

I understand that but I am asking the experts here IS there a herd immunity point at all with Covid and if so what is it?

Because we do appear to have made a decision that we pursue this aim via getting the old ones vaccinated and the young ones infected by going out there and doing stuff.

Nothing else makes sense of the tactics.

So are they working on a real premise or is herd immunity a mirage not in touching distance of happening - even if it comes at a heavy price?

I think I’ve spotted where you are going wrong :)

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Be interesting to see if restrictions / further lockdowns happen in October to what extent these will be?
Just back to mask wearing & social distancing or the potential for complete shutdowns? Suppose it depends if a new variant occurs.

 

[Manchester33]

I think hesitancy is understandable and some people are more hesitant than others. I suspect many who are hesitant and not had the jabs yet will ultimately get it once they see people don’t have side effects from having it. I’d also draw a line under it, jabs are free until such a date to try and encourage the stragglers.

But for me hesitancy is not the same as those who are vehemently opposed, the so called anti vaxxers. Ultimately we will see that they have some sort of impact in their lives to that decision; be it in their liberty (travelling for example) or job opportunities etc. Maybe even in state benefits if they are unable to work in certain sectors due to not being vaccinated - I suspect existing legislation will allow this. You want the benefits of this society? Then you play the game.

This is a great post.

I've had my first vaccine, but I was hesitant to get it originally.

I'm young, fit and have no underlying health conditions. I very much doubt the virus would put me in hospital and I'm certain it wouldn't kill me - and that's if I even catch it. Now with the vaccines, there's a lot of uncertainty.

My BIL had his Astrazeneca vaccine in February - today they wouldn't be allowed to give him that because it's deemed unsafe.

I've read stories over the past weeks about heart inflammation in young men (I have a history of heart problems in my family - as I suspect many people do). I've read about how it affects womens periods, despite experts telling us it literally won't do anything to affect this a few days prior.

The 'experts' accept that roughly 1 in 1 million children will die from the vaccines.

I don't like all the 'unfounded worries' talk about vaccine hesitancy. It is worrying for young, health-conscious people. More worrying than the idea of catching COVID for some. Rather than berate these people and bully them into getting a vaccine, people should ensure they themselves are vaccinated, try and get in shape and stop eating crap. That's all you can do.

The 'Bill Gates is putting a microchip in your arm' brigade are fucking potty and shouldn't be given any air time whatsoever.

 

[metalblue]

We got a visit this morning from local authority. To check we were ok…and also self isolating. You’ve been warned ;)

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The scientists backing Boris must think differently

Are they backing Johnson?

They're saying it's imperative people follow restrictions or there will be risk of a very big spike.

Johnson is saying people should take "personal responsibility" to restrict themselves to avoid the spike, whilst removing legal enforcement.

These things are, in principle at least, not incompatible.

 

[wolfie1988]

Be interesting to see if restrictions / further lockdowns happen in October to what extent these will be?
Just back to mask wearing & social distancing or the potential for complete shutdowns? Suppose it depends if a new variant occurs.

I suggest you stop worrying and just get on with life.

You have been asking for restrictions to be dropped and now, from Monday, they all go.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Agree on the psychological effect and instilling social habits, but Covid is an airborne transmitted virus so anything that prevents it getting airborne surely has to make a difference. I wear FFP2 masks which helps block airborne transmission so again that has to make a difference.

You might but 99% of people (me included) wear what is just a bit of washable cloth and an elastic band over their face.

I'm not convinced at all that these ones do anything, apart from maybe if you cough a ball of phlegm into them or something.

 

[grunge]

You might but 99% of people (me included) wear what is just a bit of washable cloth and an elastic band over their face.

I'm not convinced at all that these ones do anything, apart from maybe if you cough a ball of phlegm into them or something.

They will still catch a reasonably large percentage of the larger droplets you expel when you breath normally meaning less droplets in the air for people to breath in.

wont stop them all by any stretch but there is a reduction.

 

[Healdplace]

Are they backing Johnson?

They're saying it's imperative people follow restrictions or there will be risk of a very big spike.

Johnson is saying people should take "personal responsibility" to restrict themselves to avoid the spike, whilst removing legal enforcement.

These things are, in principle at least, not incompatible.

They are implicitly backing him in the eyes of the public by standing next to him as he announces policy,

If they clearly disagreed it was their public duty not to put standing on a podium ahead of saying this is wrong.

I can see why the government is proposing what it is - backing down would be very harmful to them after foolishly saying there would be no more lockdowns after this one (which has now been quietly dumped as t was never credible policy). But also there is a point we have fast approached where you have done pretty much what you can do to protect people and so what will be will be and getting it over with now - not in the Winter - is preferable.

That is what I think is driving what we are doing and it is a gamble but one I understand.

What I do not understand is if the models in science are pointing up 10K or more in hospital in August and 2000 dying in the next 4 weeks should they not be making clear and Boris letting them do so that this is a plan we are following that is - not proven to work - may not end restrictions any tine soon - and might have to be reversed quickly if it starts to go off track of estimates?

I know people are frustrated and getting them to oblige would be nigh impossible.

But there is a sort of whiff of the unethical about letting people be merry and get sick aware there will be consequences for some of them in their family. Perhaps many.

It is a mess with no perfect solution, I guess someone has to try this way out and cross fingers.

 

[artfuldodger]

I will continue to wear masks in shops and on public transport. I guess those who will suddenly stop on Monday haven’t been complying anyway. What I will not do, as I was expected to do 2 weeks ago, is sit through a 3 hour theatre show with a mask on. All 25 of us, in a 250 capacity theatre.

 

[Marvin]

You know the trains that have air conditioning. Do they recycle the air or do they exchange it externally. This is potentially very important but I have never seen it discussed.

 

[Super David Silva 21]

I'll have my mask with me at all times if asked to put it on i wont hesitate to do so.

 

[Marvin]

This is a great post.

I've had my first vaccine, but I was hesitant to get it originally.

I'm young, fit and have no underlying health conditions. I very much doubt the virus would put me in hospital and I'm certain it wouldn't kill me - and that's if I even catch it. Now with the vaccines, there's a lot of uncertainty.

My BIL had his Astrazeneca vaccine in February - today they wouldn't be allowed to give him that because it's deemed unsafe.

I've read stories over the past weeks about heart inflammation in young men (I have a history of heart problems in my family - as I suspect many people do). I've read about how it affects womens periods, despite experts telling us it literally won't do anything to affect this a few days prior.

The 'experts' accept that roughly 1 in 1 million children will die from the vaccines.

I don't like all the 'unfounded worries' talk about vaccine hesitancy. It is worrying for young, health-conscious people. More worrying than the idea of catching COVID for some. Rather than berate these people and bully them into getting a vaccine, people should ensure they themselves are vaccinated, try and get in shape and stop eating crap. That's all you can do.

The 'Bill Gates is putting a microchip in your arm' brigade are fucking potty and shouldn't be given any air time whatsoever.

Contrary to what a lot of people on here think, people are not stupid. They just need information.

 

[Healdplace]

The real truth is we would have likely made this much less painless had we acted faster to stop Delta arriving.

That will be seen to have killed thousands and will never be forgiven.

We could likely not have stopped it. Just delayed it. But that delay might have been enough to lower the peak of this wave significantly via a month or two extra vaccinations.

We were so close and not recognising the danger will imo ultimately cost political futures.

Not immediately. When this all comes out in the wash and we really are living to some degree of normality with Covid. That still appears some way off unfortunately.

Unless this gamble pays off and there really is a herd immunity point that works. Then I dare say all will be forgiven out of sheer relief to get our lives back.