Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

a few months ago we could only dream of where we are now and especially on the vaccine front. There’s a lot to criticise with this Government but going over board on this is typical of the moaning society we live in.

I think not mentioning it was poor. But that there is a delay - I don't think you can expect this to go without any hitches. We've been spoiled by how incredibly well it's gone so far.

 

[Bluewonder]

bigger point is we are still a month away from shops opening and two months from pubs and restaurants. A lot more people will be vaccinated in that time.

A lot more jobs will be lost, too.

 

[worsleyweb]

A lot more jobs will be lost, too.

you think the timescales are too tough?

 

[worsleyweb]

With vaccinations at 26 million say and let’s say 5 to 10 million on top of that - we could be at 30 to 35 million of a 70 million population? At what stage do we / couid we say we have herd immunity?

 

[BLUEMATT23]

a few months ago we could only dream of where we are now and especially on the vaccine front. There’s a lot to criticise with this Government but going over board on this is typical of the moaning society we live in.

I don't think so its more inconsistency in what they say to be honest, particularly Hancock.
Sorry I just dont like the guy.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I don't think so its more inconsistency in what they say to be honest, particularly Hancock.
Sorry I just dont like the guy.

fair enough but do you really think he makes the decisions ? He has a huge team of advisors including loads of scientists and health care workers. He’s just a mouthpiece.

 

[Bluewonder]

you think the timescales are too tough?

I see no reason why outdoor hospitality cannot open tomorrow.
I see no reason why outdoor sports cannot return tomorrow.
I see no reason why shops, hairdressers, gyms and other similar services cannot open tomorrow with social distancing requirements.
The road map is fine it itself, but it should all be moved forward by 2 or 3 weeks.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

fair enough but do you really think he makes the decisions ? He has a huge team of advisors including loads of scientists and health care workers. He’s just a mouthpiece.

Possibly not but I feel totally deflated tonight too be honest.
Just seems all the good news on the vaccine has been replaced with worry, hesitation and now probably delay out of lockdown.

 

[Bluewonder]

The maths is just illustrative that a major and rapid surge is still possible. Vaccines aren't 100% effective either. Vaccination programs can be delayed.

Given long COVID and the economy wide disruption another surge would entail, I'm not sure on QALYs but await your economic analysis with interest ;-)

I think we're doing OK right now. If cases remain well under control, I think it's likely it will go faster than govt have set out. Better this than yet another nightmare of hospitals full of the suffering and dying.

The 'illustrative' maths also doesn't consider the seasonal effect that kept this low all of last summer too, as most things opened up.

I don't have the data but I'd love to hit a dig into the cost of the last 12 months vs the years of life saved and compare the standard threshold for treatment approval under the QALY method.

I recall a professor of risk management at Bristol produced a study suggesting that a 5-6% permanent drop in GDP would cost the equivalent of 500k lives due to lower life expectancy.

 

[cleavers]

I see no reason why outdoor hospitality cannot open tomorrow.
I see no reason why outdoor sports cannot return tomorrow.
I see no reason why shops, hairdressers, gyms and other similar services cannot open tomorrow with social distancing requirements.
The road map is fine it itself, but it should all be moved forward by 2 or 3 weeks.

They've explained the reasoning behind the 5 week periods several times if you bother to listen.

Open something up, wait 4 weeks to see the data, then a week to make decisions based on the data.

If the data is great after 2 weeks, and they open up, cases will climb, and in 2 weeks we could be looking at closing everything again.

We've done things too quick previously, and look where that led, it led to people like you saying they don't learn the lessons, well it seems they might have this time, so they'll stick with the plan, whilst protecting more and more people in the process.

If you want normality (whatever that will be), then be patient.