Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Bluewonder]

That the figures were much better in July last year but the pandemic wasn't over



If we just opened up now, we absolutely would.

Ah right, yes, it appears that was the case because it was summer. I expect the same to happen across the continent again this year.

I don't propose fully opening up but consider this:
We had a small amount of excess deaths at the end of Feb/start of March, an amount that we would never consider worthy of even the most minor restrictions.
Those people sadly caught this virus at the start of February.
By the time there is anything resembling a substantial reopening of the economy (mid-April) it will be 2.5 months since the point at which infections were at an entirely tolerable level.

Given the costs of these lockdowns, that is an absurdly slow timetable, unfathomably slow, in fact. And that is without considering the millions of efficacious vaccines that have been administered in that time frame.

 

[Chappie]

I think the whole thing stinks too be honest and smacks of a complete u turn, i was staggered about this tonight too be honest.
That press conference was an absolute car crash tonight. Hancock is an idiot

Do you ever listen to what is actually said instead of putting you're own interpretation on what you think was said.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Ah right, yes, it appears that was the case because it was summer. I expect the same to happen across the continent again this year.

I don't propose fully opening up but consider this:
We had a small amount of excess deaths at the end of Feb/start of March, an amount that we would never consider worthy of even the most minor restrictions.
Those people sadly caught this virus at the start of February.
By the time there is anything resembling a substantial reopening of the economy (mid-April) it will be 2.5 months since the point at which infections were at an entirely tolerable level.

Given the costs of these lockdowns, that is an absurdly slow timetable, unfathomably slow, in fact. And that is without considering the millions of efficacious vaccines that have been administered in that time frame.

The doubling time of the virus unsuppressed was about 3 days.

So if 50% of people are immune, if completely open, that'll increase to 6 days (I'm not exactly sure if that translates directly with the maths of epidemiology, but it'll not be far off I wager). Let's call it a week.

Cases now: 5,000/day

4x doubling to mid april: 80,000/day, same rate as the peak in January (and yes, less deaths because of vaccines, but still very bad).

ie it's still got the potential to kick off massively, hence the caution.

I think opening the schools first, then seeing how that goes was very sensible.

I bet the govt has in mind to accelerate if there's no significant uptick with the schools. Should have a good idea on that in a week or so.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Do you ever listen to what is actually said instead of putting you're own interpretation on what you think was said.

Not just my interpretation looking at sky news, bbc etc they suggest that Hancock has skated over the supply issue and it was a very poor and disappointing press conference this evening from him, exactly my take on it.

 

[BobKowalski]

According to the FT, the issue appears to be the same that has hampered the EU AZ program, specifically AZ not meeting its UK supply commitments.

 

[Bluewonder]

The doubling time of the virus unsuppressed was about 3 days.

So if 50% of people are immune, if completely open, that'll increase to 6 days (I'm not exactly sure if that translates directly with the maths of epidemiology, but it'll not be far off I wager). Let's call it a week.

Cases now: 5,000/day

4x doubling to mid april: 80,000/day, same rate as the peak in January (and yes, less deaths because of vaccines, but still very bad).

ie it's still got the potential to kick off massively, hence the caution.

I think opening the schools first, then seeing how that goes was very sensible.

I bet the govt has in mind to accelerate if there's no significant uptick with the schools. Should have a good idea on that in a week or so.

Your maths here is contingent on a return to complete 'normality' tomorrow and a constant growth rate which in itself is impossible as we vaccinate 3m per week, hence a continually diminishing susceptible population.

And, as you correctly referred, we have removed a large % of possible deaths with the groups vaccinated so far.

Set against the NHS cost/benefit QALY measures, a continuing lockdown of this significance, at this stage, would be laughed out of the room.

 

[worsleyweb]

According to the FT, the issue appears to be the same that has hampered the EU AZ program, specifically AZ not meeting its UK supply commitments.

Your maths here is contingent on a return to complete 'normality' tomorrow and a constant growth rate which in itself is impossible as we vaccinate 3m per week, hence a continually diminishing susceptible population.

And, as you correctly referred, we have removed a large % of possible deaths with the groups vaccinated so far.

Set against the NHS cost/benefit QALY measures, a continuing lockdown of this significance, at this stage, would be laughed out of the room.

bigger point is we are still a month away from shops opening and two months from pubs and restaurants. A lot more people will be vaccinated in that time.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

According to the FT, the issue appears to be the same that has hampered the EU AZ program, specifically AZ not meeting its UK supply commitments.

Speculation: According to the Graun AZ has said it's meeting it's 2m dose a week commitment. "Global AZ issue" was cited by govt. Conclusion: AZ was planning to spring more supplies from India, but that's proved not possible, perhaps because the Indian govt has stopped it.

As I say, speculation.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Not just my interpretation looking at sky news, bbc etc they suggest that Hancock has skated over the supply issue and it was a very poor and disappointing press conference this evening from him, exactly my take on it.

a few months ago we could only dream of where we are now and especially on the vaccine front. There’s a lot to criticise with this Government but going over board on this is typical of the moaning society we live in.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Your maths here is contingent on a return to complete 'normality' tomorrow and a constant growth rate which in itself is impossible as we vaccinate 3m per week, hence a continually diminishing susceptible population.

And, as you correctly referred, we have removed a large % of possible deaths with the groups vaccinated so far.

Set against the NHS cost/benefit QALY measures, a continuing lockdown of this significance, at this stage, would be laughed out of the room.

The maths is just illustrative that a major and rapid surge is still possible. Vaccines aren't 100% effective either. Vaccination programs can be delayed.

Given long COVID and the economy wide disruption another surge would entail, I'm not sure on QALYs but await your economic analysis with interest ;-)

I think we're doing OK right now. If cases remain well under control, I think it's likely it will go faster than govt have set out. Better this than yet another nightmare of hospitals full of the suffering and dying.