Coronavirus (2021) thread

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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

12 deaths - was 7 last week - the sky high care home outbreaks coming home to roost sadly.

1648 cases - was 1564 last week - interesting that NI is getting away with only modest rises like England so far.

10% positivity - was 9.9% last week - similar track only just up....but NI was the last to get Delta so that is likely just making it lag and big rises will come sadly.


11,886 weekly cases total - was 11, 944 yesterday & 10, 099 last week - also pretty flat

134 Care Home Outbreaks - up 2 on yesterday - was 128 last week. This seems to have slowed happily.

373 patients - up 21 on yesterday - was 392 last week

26 ventilated - down 2 on yesterday - was 33 last week
 
grunge said:
Im not ruling out that it had come from a lab, until its ruled out its always still an option. As I mentioned above though there are positive samples from Spain that pre date Sept 19.

Those dates also coincide with the US Pandemic alert team leaving the Wuhan lab after Trump killed the funding.
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I’d heard people in Wuhan had covid like symptoms around Sept 2019 but hadn’t heard about Barcelona pre Sept…will look into it.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
It's my opinion that they are under instruction to put coivd on as cause of death even though when it is not the case.
I have heard that from a number of people.
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Aside from the conspiratorial nature of the claim (who issued this "instruction", when and why?), that just doesn't add up:

Deaths within 28 days of a test are consistent with certificates
Excess deaths are consistent with certificates
Fatality rate estimates from the UK aren't out of line with other comparative countries.
 
foetus said:
I’d heard people in Wuhan had covid like symptoms around Sept 2019 but hadn’t heard about Barcelona pre Sept…will look into it.
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As a starting point

www.reuters.com

Coronavirus traces found in March 2019 sewage sample, Spanish study shows

Spanish virologists have found traces of the novel coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the COVID-19 disease was identified in China, the University of Barcelona said on Friday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

I know Dr Cambell did a video on it too.

Personally I think this is just a contaminated sample but the scientists involved seem pretty certain its not.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
How?
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It's obvious - isn't it?

There's a massive global conspiracy pushing false data about COVID because the false data benefits... we'll actually I'm at a loss here as to whom the fake data benefits. I'm pretty sure QAnon has an authoritative explanation for this though. Probably ties in with space lasers, lizard people and pedophile pizza eaters somehow.
 
Marvin said:
What kind of an answer is that? Social distancing has repeatedly been shown to reduce transmission. Of course it is not a long term answer but we don't have any alternative. Hospital numbers are up 500 in a week in advance of schools and colleges opening.

What we need are new vaccines or a 3rd dose. The WHO may well have a point that from a global perspective they should go to other nations but I can't see that happening.
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All you are doing is what we see happening in Australasia now. As soon as you open up you are back to square one. There should be a full cost benefit analysis done in respect of lockdown and the evidence should be in by now. What you continually see, almost everwhere you look, is that the shape of the 'wave' is almost identical, whatever measures have been implimented or not. Vaccines preventing severe illness and death are the only way out of this not lockdown or other NPI's that merely move the wave further along but also increase other Public Health issues.

Where we could be different is if we were consistently just told the facts and, surprisingly enough, people are then more than capable of making their own risk assesments and changing their behaviour accordingly, a bit like the 'Swedish Death Cult' approach...
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Why?

We infected a significant slice of the population before vaccines and 150,000 died as a result.

Worst case for Aus/NZ is that the same slice of the population is infected, but after vaccination, so far less will die.

How is this a deep hole?
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A fair question. I was speaking from the point of view of getting themselves out of this one covid case = lockdown mindset and cycle. We know from our own experience that even with a highly vaccinated population, there will be huge case rates and probably lots of deaths as the vaccines aren't perfect and don't make you immortal. So will they maintain their pretence that zero covid is sustainable or move away from it and accept the deaths and cases when they inevitable come. They could be in for a rough ride although yes, you'd expect it to be on a much smaller scale to our rough ride.

However, does this mean a big bang release which could of course mean a huge wave or will it be something slower and more metered, which means border closures and lockdowns for a significant time to come. I think they have pretty difficult periods of existence to come yet.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Aside from the conspiratorial nature of the claim (who issued this "instruction", when and why?), that just doesn't add up:

Deaths within 28 days of a test are consistent with certificates
Excess deaths are consistent with certificates
Fatality rate estimates from the UK aren't out of line with other comparative countries.
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Excess deaths are the key to this now not deaths within 28 days.
Stop testing asymptomatic people, increase sick pay to support those with a positive diagnosis, provide boosters where antibodies are proven to be waning.

On a slightly different topic, i think your wish for 12+ to be vaccinated might well come to fruition in early September..
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

153 with 16 from the North West.

Last week 154 with 29 NW & week before 152 with 25 NW.

THAT is about as flat as you can get.

But these deaths will come from 3/4 weeks ago when we were flattened off in cases and hospitalisations.

And NW deaths well down as you can see.

TUESDAYS ARE OFTEN THE BIGGEST NUMBER OF THE WEEK WITH THE WEEKEND CATCH UP ADD ON REMEMBER
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS - Details

By region:

East 11, London 33, Midlands 34, NE & Yorkshire 36, North West 16, South East 14, South West 9

Most deaths in Birmingham and North East


16 NW deaths by trust:

Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale) 4. Liverpool 3, Stockport 2, Tameside 2

And 1 each in - Bolton, Morecambe, Salford, Warrington, Wigan



By Age:- 20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (17), 60 - 79 (57) & 80 PLUS (78)
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Genuine question - what level of death and hospitalisation, say in comparison to the January peak do you think would justify this?

Half as much, the same, twice, more?

Not an attempted gotcha, just trying to understand.
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If it gets to over half as much then the vaccines haven’t done their job and we are all fucked. What was the peak in Jan for deaths, 1,200? If it got anywhere near half that number of vaccinated people dying a day because of covid and not with it, then I would be worried.

What about you, when would you look at closing schools etc again?
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS


The last full 7 days of 5 day totals are 8 Aug to 14 Aug

These read 57 - 40 - 48 - 57 - 66 - 53 - 69.

Total for the week 390 - up from 364 the week before and 336 the week before.

As you see deaths ARE rising but not at all fast in the way they did in past waves.


The first 5 five day totals of the next run of 7 days are 60 - 56 - 66 - 57 - 65

The next two days coming up behind are at 52 and 53 - so the weekly total is going to be around 425 - a similar modest rise.

In past waves these numbers would have been escalating a lot more than this.

August 14 on 69 after 5 days and currently on 78 is the current deadliest day in England hospitals.

Nowhere in the days after it are yet threatening that total.
 
foetus said:
Gain of function research. Yep definitely scary stuff. It’s the potential (not definite) cause of all of this. If so, a serious discussion on the pros/cons of this type of research has to had.
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Bloody too right. I thought the labs would be like fort knox and spotlessly clean, but apparently the hygiene levels in some are similar to your dentists, and these fuckers are messing about with shit like ebola!!!
 
True_Blue69 said:
If it gets to over half as much then the vaccines haven’t done their job and we are all fucked. What was the peak in Jan for deaths, 1,200? If it got anywhere near half that number of vaccinated people dying a day because of covid and not with it, then I would be worried.

What about you, when would you look at closing schools etc again?
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It was more than 1200 on the highest days in the UK. That is about the England number though.

I am pretty confident we are not getting near 600 a day on current trends.

And as I posted last night there are still under 7000 in UK hospitals and under 1000 on ventilators.

We were over 39,000 and 4000 in January.

North West last night fell below 100 on ventilators for first time in weeks.

This wave is VERY different from the last one.
 
grunge said:
In all honesty I think if this was some sort of "weaponised" virus then its failed, in the grand scheme of things its not a large killer. Its not as bad as Spanish flu was for example. its enough to cause disruption no doubt but this isn't bubonic plague 2.0 or something similar. If it was something made with intent then surely MERS would have been a better choice?

Also once in the "wild" there would be no way to know what the mutated strains would do.
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I don't think it would have been developed for weaponry or they it was released on purpose l, but after watching that programme I'm not too sure now if if didn't escape from a lab. There are characteristics of it that have never been seen in other viruses in nature.
 
True_Blue69 said:
If it gets to over half as much then the vaccines haven’t done their job and we are all fucked. What was the peak in Jan for deaths, 1,200? If it got anywhere near half that number of vaccinated people dying a day because of covid and not with it, then I would be worried.

What about you, when would you look at closing schools etc again?
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I think it will go on hospitalisations this time around rather than deaths ( protect the NHS n all that ).

Currently we are at a quarter the hospitalisation rate. with a 7th of the amount "in hospital".

if we get to a similar level of hospitalisations then I think we'll be looking at some restrictions. masks/social distancing etc. that being said. I think the upcoming flu season will be a key factor in it. we need to be hammering out flu vaccines this year. a major flu hit means less capacity for Covid and vice versa.
 
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