Coronavirus (2021) thread

[grunge]

I don't think it would have been developed for weaponry or they it was released on purpose l, but after watching that programme I'm not too sure now if if didn't escape from a lab. There are characteristics of it that have never been seen in other viruses in nature.

I didn't see the show, what Characteristics do they mean?

 

[splinter]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

153 with 16 from the North West.

Last week 154 with 29 NW & week before 152 with 25 NW.

THAT is about as flat as you can get.

But these deaths will come from 3/4 weeks ago when we were flattened off in cases and hospitalisations.

And NW deaths well down as you can see.

TUESDAYS ARE OFTEN THE BIGGEST NUMBER OF THE WEEK WITH THE WEEKEND CATCH UP ADD ON REMEMBER

Well i wasn't expecting that..

 

[Healdplace]

Three nations deaths today are 175 - with England out of hospital to come. Could top 200 today. Hopefully not.

Last week the total was 170. And stayed at 170 on all settings.

175 on 12 March is the last time the UK Daily deaths were higher. So that record is likely to go today.

 

[Elbow beards]

I didn't see the show, what Characteristics do they mean?

It was well complicated but something to do with the protein spikes, seemed they are to far advanced than other corona viruses . I'm sure you can still see it on channel 4 catch up. It was on on sunday.

 

[BobKowalski]

To make things seemingly appear worse than what they actually are my friend.

Why? What would be the point?

 

[Healdplace]

Three nation cases total with England to come is 7364 - I do not recall a higher 3 nation total.

Last week it was 4140 - so a huge jump upward.

Last Tuesday England added 22, 712 to total 26, 852

Yesterday England added 24, 158 - up week to week by 987


So I think we are looking at 33K minimum today.

Anything below or above means England doing relatively well or poorly given the big numbers elsewhere.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If it gets to over half as much then the vaccines haven’t done their job and we are all fucked. What was the peak in Jan for deaths, 1,200? If it got anywhere near half that number of vaccinated people dying a day because of covid and not with it, then I would be worried.

What about you, when would you look at closing schools etc again?

Thanks.

so maybe 500 daily deaths is your benchmark.

That's just two doublings from where we are now. Cases in Scotland doubled in just the last week. So, given return of schools etc, it's far from inconceivable your scenario does indeed pan out, and fast. So we should be prepared for it.

As to what I would suggest - well, I'm no expert in this, but I think we should prioritise things which are low impact. For instance

1. Vaccinate adolescents.
2. Major vaccine drive to get the adult unprotected covered as far as possible. Vaccine passports as per France might be an option.

(both of these regardless of cases)
If cases rise towards levels we expect to give problematic deaths and hospitalisations, then low impact restrictions such as:

3. Masks in crowded indoor settings (public transport etc)
4. Support people to isolate if positive, expand testing
5. Reimpose home working unless imperative to be at work

And if that doesn't work,

5. Limit mass gatherings (sorry blues, religious types)
6. Hospitality limitations (table service and whatnot)

Schools would be my last resort.

You might have a different list, in a different order, but increasing immunity, decreasing aerosols and limiting interactions is where we'll be at.

It might be, as we seem to have seen at "Freedom day" that when people are concerned about the virus, they self limit their behaviour. But just crossing our fingers and hoping doesn't seem like a good plan to me.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Thanks.

so maybe 500 daily deaths is your benchmark.

That's just two doublings from where we are now. Cases in Scotland doubled in just the last week. So, given return of schools etc, it's far from inconceivable your scenario does indeed pan out, and fast. So we should be prepared for it.

As to what I would suggest - well, I'm no expert in this, but I think we should prioritise things which are low impact. For instance

1. Vaccinate adolescents.
2. Major vaccine drive to get the adult unprotected covered as far as possible. Vaccine passports as per France might be an option.

(both of these regardless of cases)
If cases rise towards levels we expect to give problematic deaths and hospitalisations, then low impact restrictions such as:

3. Masks in crowded indoor settings (public transport etc)
4. Support people to isolate if positive, expand testing
5. Reimpose home working unless imperative to be at work

And if that doesn't work,

5. Limit mass gatherings (sorry blues, religious types)
6. Hospitality limitations (table service and whatnot)

Schools would be my last resort.

You might have a different list, in a different order, but increasing immunity, decreasing aerosols and limiting interactions is where we'll be at.

It might be, as we seem to have seen at "Freedom day" that when people are concerned about the virus, they self limit their behaviour. But just crossing our fingers and hoping doesn't seem like a good plan to me.

You would not get public compliance with barely any of your suggestions that's the issue, I understand what you are saying but simply put people would not tolerate points 5 & 6 any longer & why should they?

We were told the vaccines would be the route out, people have endured 3 lockdowns and absolute hell for nearly 2 years, been patient and got the jabs.
Sorry just my opinion.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You would not get public compliance with barely any of your suggestions that's the issue, I understand what you are saying but simply put people would not tolerate points 6 & 7 any longer & why should they?

We were told the vaccines would be the route out, people have endured 3 lockdowns and absolute hell for nearly 2 years, been patient and got the jabs.
Sorry just my opinion.

You may be right - except there's no (7) ;-)

The alternative might be a huge NHS impact.

Other people might not tolerate that and why should they?

But that's exactly why I think we need a plan. So we're prepared if bad scenarios pan out. They may not.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

You may be right - except there's no (7) ;-)

The alternative might be a huge NHS impact.

Other people might not tolerate that and why should they?

But that's exactly why I think we need a plan. So we're prepared if bad scenarios pan out. They may not.

I'm sure they have a plan & hopefully it doesn't involve SAGE and Professor Lockdown.

 

[willipp]

Done two lateral flows this afternoon and both positive. Started feeling a bit ropey last night with a tight chest. Got a PCR test booked for 6:30 but looks like 10 days of isolation for me.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I'm sure they have a plan

I'm near certain they don't!

And if they do, we should know about it. No reason to be secretive, quite the opposite.

 

[Healdplace]

174 all settings deaths

So just 4 up on last Tuesday and did NOT go higher than that 175 in March.

Remarkably cases are DOWN on yesterday even with the big 3 nations numbers.

30, 838

1076 fewer

But up from 26, 852 last week

England 23, 474 - 684 fewer than yesterday - v 22, 712 last Tuesday.


56K more pillar 1 & 2 tests today than yesterday.

 

[grunge]

It was well complicated but something to do with the protein spikes, seemed they are to far advanced than other corona viruses . I'm sure you can still see it on channel 4 catch up. It was on on sunday.

Will take a look, sounds like they were trying to make things sound bad tho as there are 4 other Corona viruses freely spreading between humans that are just classed in the common cold family.

 

[Healdplace]

England is doing very well still versus the other nations.

Not sure why.

But as by far the biggest contributor to the UK total the longer this lasts the better.

 

[True_Blue69]

England is doing very well still versus the other nations.

Not sure why.

But as by far the biggest contributor to the UK total the longer this lasts the better.

We opened up sooner didn’t we? Maybe that’s why.

 

[Elbow beards]

Will take a look, sounds like they were trying to make things sound bad tho as there are 4 other Corona viruses freely spreading between humans that are just classed in the common cold family.

It's an interestimg watch, whether you believe or not (I'm undecided) there are some worrying things on there regards genetically modifying viruses, bloody scary.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

I guess there are two options, really.

1. Let it rip and accept the consequences, regardless of what they are.

2. Decide how bad we are prepared to let it get and impose restrictions to limit consequences to whatever that is.

It's looking pretty clear the potential is there to get quite bad quite quickly. Scotland and now Wales seem to be doubling almost weekly. Hopefully that will slow, but who knows.

If we accept that we don't care about cases per se, long covid notwithstanding. we're two doublings from the daily hospitalisation peak in January, and 3-4 from the corresponding deaths peak. It could happen quite quickly, but equally it might burn out.

Do we want to go there? If yes, how much higher again?

At the moment, policy seems to be to hang in and hope it doesn't get out of control without any clear idea of what out of control is or what we are prepared to do to stop it.

As always there seems to be lack of communication strategy from the Government. For me the news last week that at least 50 per cent of fully vaccinated people will get symptomatic Covid and, if they they do, they will transmit is as much as unvaccinated Covid carriers has changed the game.
The vaccine passport concept must be dead. It won't work if 50 per cent of passport-holders can still transmit infection.
The current tactic of letting lots of healthy young people get infected to develop natural immunity sounds reasonable but it increases the chance of new variants (perhaps worse then Delta)
I think the public need to be told what is going on and what our Government is doing to tackle this going forward.

 

[True_Blue69]

As always there seems to be lack of communication strategy from the Government. For me the news last week that at least 50 per cent of fully vaccinated people will get symptomatic Covid and, if they they do, they will transmit is as much as unvaccinated Covid carriers has changed the game.
The vaccine passport concept must be dead. It won't work if 50 per cent of passport-holders can still transmit infection.
The current tactic of letting lots of healthy young people get infected to develop natural immunity sounds reasonable but it increases the chance of new variants (perhaps worse then Delta)
I think the public need to be told what is going on and what our Government is doing to tackle this going forward.

Same with vaccinating kids, if it barely stops them catching and passing it on, what's the point?

 

[Blue and still suffering]

England is doing very well still versus the other nations.

Not sure why.

But as by far the biggest contributor to the UK total the longer this lasts the better.

We opened up sooner didn’t we? Maybe that’s why.

I was just about to write the same, we have been open for five weeks now whereas both Scotland and Wales didn't open till earlier this month.