Coronavirus (2021) thread

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I think this thread is just mirroring the necessary process the nation is going through - indeed the world.

From being scared of an unknown virus decimating the planet, to unexpectedly fast and strong victory via the vaccines bringing a kind of opening up euphoria, to the situation now. The third phase and hopefully the end game.

Here we have to balance the still obvious and vital life saving powers of the vaccines that have turned a disaster into a manageable health problem.

Against the realisation we have gained over 18 months studying Covid that until it is controlled everywhere out there - which we have done far too little to expedite - Covid will always be a threat via potential mutations that - coupled with the global spread - mean herd immunity is not happening,

That for many was the light at the end of the tunnel we were inching towards and now it has receded into the distance it has created a confidence knock.

What is needed now is a strategy to re educate the nation on how to live successfully with Covid as it will definitely not vanish in the next 18 months. Especially if we do not get our act together on tackling the global problem.

The over emphasis on variants from Kent last Winter to Delta this Summer has spooked people. But the reality is these are random mutations and only thrive if they spread. So infectivity not mortality is the winner for these competing variants. Which in of itsef is not a problem if the vaccines are still effective - and can be tweaked to be more so.

I am very frustrated by the way we have been lectured and told how to lock down and keep ourselves out of things but we have opened up and our leaders went on holiday. And we were left to do our thing and fend for ourselves,

Where is the guidance? The clear expounding of the plan. We appear to be coasting and hoping for the best whilst preparing for the worst

No wonder some are flapping.

Learning how to adjust to normal life WITH Covid as opposed to the presumption of beating Covid and living free again is a big psychological ask of society,

We need far more out there taking responsibility for getting that message across about how to move forward as right now too many are flapping based on scare stories dotted around the media or flickers of hope they might promote,

This is a key moment for the country and we are being left to fend for ourselves.

Some are not managing that too well and we NEED a better effort from our leaders to revive the hope plenty seem to have lost.

The current situation is precarious but NOT dire. Hospital patients in England FELL yesterday. Not a peep about that in the media Just a story with 2 day old numbers stressing the number as if it is high.

This is the time the media and politicians should be working together to steer the UK into a new relationship with Covid.

They are sadly letting us all down badly.
 
I think this thread is just mirroring the necessary process the nation is going through - indeed the world.

From being scared of an unknown virus decimating the planet, to unexpectedly fast and strong victory via the vaccines bringing a kind of opening up euphoria, to the situation now. The third phase and hopefully the end game.

Here we have to balance the still obvious and vital life saving powers of the vaccines that have turned a disaster into a manageable health problem.

Against the realisation we have gained over 18 months studying Covid that until it is controlled everywhere out there - which we have done far too little to expedite - Covid will always be a threat via potential mutations that - coupled with the global spread - mean herd immunity is not happening,

That for many was the light at the end of the tunnel we were inching towards and now it has receded into the distance it has created a confidence knock.

What is needed now is a strategy to re educate the nation on how to live successfully with Covid as it will definitely not vanish in the next 18 months. Especially if we do not get our act together on tackling the global problem.

The over emphasis on variants from Kent last Winter to Delta this Summer has spooked people. But the reality is these are random mutations and only thrive if they spread. So infectivity not mortality is the winner for these competing variants. Which in of itsef is not a problem if the vaccines are still effective - and can be tweaked to be more so.

I am very frustrated by the way we have been lectured and told how to lock down and keep ourselves out of things but we have opened up and our leaders went on holiday. And we were left to do our thing and fend for ourselves,

Where is the guidance? The clear expounding of the plan. We appear to be coasting and hoping for the best whilst preparing for the worst

No wonder some are flapping.

Learning how to adjust to normal life WITH Covid as opposed to the presumption of beating Covid and living free again is a big psychological ask of society,

We need far more out there taking responsibility for getting that message across about how to move forward as right now too many are flapping based on scare stories dotted around the media or flickers of hope they might promote,

This is a key moment for the country and we are being left to fend for ourselves.

Some are not managing that too well and we NEED a better effort from our leaders to revive the hope plenty seem to have lost.

The current situation is precarious but NOT dire. Hospital patients in England FELL yesterday. Not a peep about that in the media Just a story with 2 day old numbers stressing the number as if it is high.

This is the time the media and politicians should be working together to steer the UK into a new relationship with Covid.

They are sadly letting us all down badly.
With everything fully opened up..im really concerned about the Delta variant going into winter..uncharted territory
 
WALES DATA

4 deaths - was 4 last week

1705 cases - was 1373 last week

13.8% positivity - was 18.2% last week

205 patients (yesterday) - was 162 last week

28 ventilated (yesterday) - was 26 last week
 
Cases in Wales on Wednesday over past weeks as Delta arrived and spread:-

FROM 26 MAY TO TODAY

28 - 83 - 223 - 141 - 213 - 513 - 663 - 1135 - 941 - 588 - 608 - (About 900*) - 1373 - 1705 TODAY


* Glitch in the data and 1800 reported the next day for 2 days.
 
With everything fully opened up..im really concerned about the Delta variant going into winter..uncharted territory
Which was I think why we allowed as many to catch it in the Summer when the stress on the NHS was least.

The bulk of these high cases were under 30. Still are the highest group by far though numbers are rising as cases rise outside those ages. Many not vaccinated.

Catching it with minimal risk to younger fitter people (though as the daily figures show NOT zero risk as people under 30 died almost every day in England in small numbers) to build some immunity for the winter looks to be the plan.

Not expressed openly for obvious reasons. But logically the only way for the reluctant to be vaccinated - alongside offering those who want it to be jabbed.
 
why are they calling it a booster jab and not a 3rd vaccine jab ?


Its purpose is to boost the immunity you still have from the two jabs.

And it possibly also covers the likelihood of it NOT being the same type of vaccine as the first two jabs you had.

Plus it will be targeted at most vulnerable groups almost certainly not a widescale for all vaccination program. So they might want that more apparent for those not offered it. By making clear it is a targeted booster for those who had the jab as far back as last Winter.

I was nowhere near the front of the queue and even I had my second one over 4 months ago, Some were doubled jabbed coming up for 8 months ago soon.

A lot of residual immunity remains but those being the most vulnerable need a top up. It is a different straegy than past vaccination orogrammes and they mght just want that to be clear.
 
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Makes sense as the flu jabs usually start then too and they will likely double jab as much as possible to speed the programme up. My friend who is in the most vulnerable was more or less told to expect both next month. Possibly at the same time. Though that is not yet certain, But a hope as it will make a big difference in getting to all the most at risk pre Winter if they can.
 
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ZOE APP DATA

Predicted cases up just 120 (lowest in a few days) to 51, 961.

Ongoing symptomatic cases up 6787 to 661, 562
 
ZOE APP REGIONS

NORTHERN IRELAND - still top and a big jump up today from 571 / 1693 TO 709 / 1847

YORKSHIRE - though - FALLS - from 805 / 1104 TO 784 / 1074

NORTH WEST third UP again but only a little from 751 / 1006 TO 760 / 1012


South West, North East, London all also in the second watch band with the North West.

These all VERY slowly rising but London has turned flat.


SCOTLAND rising has lost top spot as best in UK

UP from 485 / 749 TO 518 / 783

WALES is top - though rising much like Scotland

UP from 406 / 698 TO 462 / 766
 
Its purpose is to boost the immunity you still have from the two jabs.

And it possibly also covers the likelihood of it NOT being the same type of vaccine as the first two jabs you had.

Plus it will be targeted at most vulnerable groups almost certainly not a widescale for all vaccination program. So they might want that more apparent for those not offered it. By making clear it is a targeted booster for those who had the jab as far back as last Winter.

I was nowhere near the front of the queue and even I had my second one over 4 months ago, Some were doubled jabbed coming up for 8 months ago soon.

A lot of residual immunity remains but those being the most vulnerable need a top up. It is a different straegy than past vaccination orogrammes and they mght just want that to be clear.

Ok cheers - so the booster jab won't be the typical pfizer/astra ?

also, are we yet expecting more jabs again for everyone say next year ?
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST

GM Boroughs

BOLTON UP to 9864 from 9366

BURY DOWN to 14, 186 from 17, 807 - was worst in GM but falls below fast rising Wigan

MANCHESTER UP to 7631 from 7170 - Manchester still doing well but no longer best in GM

OLDHAM UP to 8375 from 7954

ROCHDALE DOWN BIG to 6197 from 14, 405 - Rochdale huge drop to best in GM

SALFORD UP big to 12, 193 from 7722 - quite a steep rise for Salford needs watching.

STOCKPORT UP to 9878 from 8426 - highest here in 2 weeks but still under the 10K red list - just

TAMESIDE DOWN to 9343 from 9854

TRAFFORD UP to 12, 649 from 11, 777 - also still going up and third highest in GM now

WIGAN UP BIG to 21, 593 from 16, 058 - recent cases have been rising and now most in GM again


OTHERS:-

Cheshire East still keeping good track with Stockport as it tends to do being neighbour boroughs - up a little to 8374.

Liverpool still edging up and well over Manchester on 13, 617

But St Helens is again the main problem round Merseyside on 16, 689

Warrington also risen into the upper watch zone on 11, 368

The Blackpool area still falling and now barely over 10K on 10, 744
 
Ok cheers - so the booster jab won't be the typical pfizer/astra ?

also, are we yet expecting more jabs again for everyone say next year ?

based on 35m doses being ordered I would guess they will be Pfizer in the end. but generally they could be any dose available.

Pfizer is working on newer ones for the new strains so Id guess these doses will be that.
 
based on 35m doses being ordered I would guess they will be Pfizer in the end. but generally they could be any dose available.

Pfizer is working on newer ones for the new strains so Id guess these doses will be that.

As i understand it, but could be wrong:

There are no current plans to use anything other than the original vaccines
Trials are already ongoing on Beta specific vaccines (I guess now less relevant given the delta situation)
Trials are planned to start about now on delta specific versions.
Until these trials read out boosters will be with current vaccines.

It might be, just speculating, that a delta specific vaccine gives less good protection than the original against other variants, for instance, and only marginally better protection against delta. In which case we'd stick to the original, I suppose. We'll see.

The current double dose vaccines already give good delta protection and a booster raises it further again.

As an aside, much of this is good news. Despite infecting a significant proportion of the world's population, the virus hasn't mutated enough to escape vaccines against the original. That suggests that we won't need new vaccines against multiple strains every year, in contrast to flu.
 
As an aside, much of this is good news. Despite infecting a significant proportion of the world's population, the virus hasn't mutated enough to escape vaccines against the original. That suggests that we won't need new vaccines against multiple strains every year, in contrast to flu.

But if the vaccines wane every 6 months and the virus is circulating...surely we'll all need to be jabbed again.
 
But if the vaccines wane every 6 months and the virus is circulating...surely we'll all need to be jabbed again.

Possibly, yes, but good news in the sense that, unlike flu, it will be the same vaccine rather than a new one (or at least only changed infrequently), and a single vaccine, rather than a cocktail of several as the flu one is.

Also good news because the vaccine against COVID is considerably more effective than the flu one.

And beware of too much pessimism on the waning piece. It may not be as bad as reported, and certainly isn't waning too much against severe disease.

I linked a simply excellent thread on this previously, and shall unashamedly threadbomb as it's worth reading.

 
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