Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE Today was right again. Mostly.

Had a big rise in predicted cases after several falls - from 55. 772 to 57, 158

And ongoing symptomatic cases up by easily the most in while - by 11, 529 to 731, 534

Also showed rises in most regions. North West UP from 801 / 1053 to 813 / 1066

And Wales and Scotland still rising on 742 / 1092 and 777 / 1073 respectively

London still falling on 639 / 818. Only East England is lower now - just - in UK on 622 / 809.

In Greater Manchester Stockport has crossed the 20 K threshold onto 20, 920 - doubled numbers in a week.

Wigan has risen quite a bit too challenging for top again just behind on 20, 811.

Trafford also jumped back up to 16, 189.

Nobody else in GM close to those numbers though a few others are up today.

Broadly this matches the real data to follow - though Wigan was worse than Stockport today.

West Lancashire, Sefton, Liverpool and Merseyside also up quite a bit and West Lancashire on 29, 210 is highest in the region.
 
NW AND GREATER MANCHESTER HIGHLIGHTS

NW up on day by 123 to 3309 - back behind South East - which was up 953 today to 3783 - by far the biggest England rise.

Week to week NW fell by 28 from 3337. In other words back to the old story of flat as a pancake.


From these numbers GM was up by 48 (from 1199 to 1247) of that 123 - which is pretty well on expectations.

GM from that week to week fall by NW of just 28 is down by 30 - more than all of it! Obviously not bad news tiny as the fall is.


Within GM

MANCHESTER 199 - DOWN 10 on day & 49 wk to wk

TAMESIDE 160 - UP 24 on day & 6 wk to wk - Zoe cannot ever get Tameside data right it seems

WIGAN 155 - UP 45 on day & 54 wk to wk - close to worst in GM today as Zoe showed with its big rise

STOCKPORT 147 - DOWN 43 on day & UP 8 wk to wk - much better day today but still going up wk to wk and so in Pop Score

SALFORD 126 - UP 18 on day & DOWN 2 wk to wk - still doing OK here but slightly worse day than of late

TRAFFORD 118 - UP 10 on day & 25 Wk to wk - as Zoe shows going up again and bad day only took 1 off Stockport in overall Pop Score and only that by a fraction.

BURY 104 - UP 32 on day & 29 wk to wk - not so good a day here either.

ROCHDALE 88 - UP 27 on day - but DOWN 18 wk to wk

BOLTON 84 - DOWN 25 on day & by 25 wk to wk - Good Day Here for Bolton but NOT best in GM

OLDHAM 66 - DOWN 35 on day & 58 wk to wk - Excellent day here and lowest Pop Score in GM.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA


ADMISSIONS - THESE ARE FROM MONDAY REMEMBER (48 hours old)



LAST MON // THIS MONDAY

831 // 808

So down week to week though Monday was a bank holiday


By regions (LAST MONDAY V THIS MONDAY) :-


LONDON 147 V 146

MIDLANDS 161 V 156

NE & YORKSHIRE 170 V 152



AND

NORTH WEST 107 V 115


So NW admitted the least of the four big regions again BUT the only one to go up week to week.



Patients rose by 147 on Monday - the day those admissions above relate to - but on Tuesday they rose by double that - 290 - so expect bigger numbers when we get the Tuesday admissions tomorrow
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA



PATIENTS

THIS DATA IS FOR TODAY


6236 - DOWN 57 ON DAY FROM 6293



Last week the equivalent numbers were

5922 - UP 11 ON DAY FROM 5911


So this week up 314 V last week


WEEK TO WEEK: Rise of 314 FROM 5922 to 6236.

Previous week Rise of 408 FROM 5514 to 5922


So the weekly rise is actually down again.




BY REGIONS

Today - Up/Down Today V Last Week - Up/down over week


LONDON 1235 - DOWN 20 V 1172 - UP 63

MIDLANDS 1265 - DOWN 15 V 1217 - UP 48

NE & YORKSHIRE 1154 - DOWN 4 V 1111 - UP 43


AND


NORTH WEST 924 - DOWN 25 V 898 - UP 26


So NW is still up week to week but by the least amount.


The other regions week to week to today

East up from 494 to 535 today (down 12 on day)

South East up from 603 to 652 today (up 27 on day)

And South West up from 427 to 471 today (down 8 on day)


These smaller regions are rising too now.


Headline:- Numbers rising but NOT increasing by much week to week. Not enough to cause concern yet.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA



VENTILATORS


THIS DATA IS FOR TODAY

890 - UP 11 FROM 879 YESTERDAY


Last week the same days were:

871 - UP 14 FROM 857




UP 19 week to week today V UP 22 wk to wk yesterday

Last week the wk to wk from the previous Wednesday was UP 59.




By regions (TODAY V LAST WEDNESDAY) :-


LONDON 225 (up 2) V 215 - UP 10 in week

MIDLANDS 181 (down 1) V 183 - DOWN 2 in week

NE & YORKSHIRE 135 (up 2) V 147 - DOWN 12 in week



AND

NORTH WEST 121 (up 2) V 102 - UP 19 in week


SADLY AS YOU SEE NORTH WEST HAS STARTED TO GO UP. IN PAST FEW DAYS QUITE NOTICEABLY.

IN FACT THE WEEK TO WEEK INCREASE IS NOW THE WORST HERE IN 2 MONTHS AND EASILY THE MOST OF THE REGIONS.




The other regions LAST WEEK V TODAY

East level at 74 TO 83 - UP 9

South East from 81 to 87 - UP 6

And South West from 69 to 58 - DOWN 11


So ventilator numbers in NW have become an issue in past week
 
UK PATIENTS AS OF TODAY:



ENGLAND 6236 SCOTLAND 629 NORTHERN IRELAND 418 WALES 302

UK TOTAL 7585

(UP 74 DESPITE FALLING IN ENGLAND BY 56)





VENTILATED UK AS OF TODAY


ENGLAND 890 SCOTLAND 59 NORTHERN IRELAND 37 WALES 44

UK TOTAL 1030


(UP 20 WITH RISES IN EVERY NATION BAR NORTHERN IRELAND)
 
As you see from the posts above the hospital data is going up but not out of control anywhere.

The test now comes with England schools and IF that drives a big cases rise and how much of that translates into hospital numbers as that will decide if restrictions come back not case numbers.

Here are the England hospital numbers on Wednesdays over the past 2 months

2144 - 3110 - 4063 - 3782 - 4964 - 5073 - 5514 - 5922 - 6236

THE INCREASE HAS IF ANYTHING SLOWED
 
GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Rochdale 548, Bury 590, Oldham 635, Bolton 700, Trafford 780 , Salford 867. Wigan 929 , Tameside 945, Stockport 1049, Manchester 1527


Stockport's numbers have put it as second to Manchester - which itself is well down - and these two are the only ones over 1000 and Stockport is closing the gap on Manchester showing how poorly it is doing right now.

The media will finally tell you this about Stockport in a few days when they catch up! They announced Tameside today - a week late.

Rochdale meanwhile has been doing so well it has secured top spot from both Bury and Bolton.

Oldham is coming for top spot too.
 
GM WEEKLY POP SCORES


Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)



OLDHAM 209 // 303 // DOWN 94 WAS 338 (down 129)

BOLTON 249 // 225 // UP 24 WAS 189 (up 60)

MANCHESTER 275 // 321 // DOWN 46 WAS 347 (down 72)

WIGAN 281 // 275 // UP 6 WAS 240 (up 41)

ROCHDALE 292 // 270 //UP 22 WAS 282 (Up 10)

BURY 309 // 258 // UP 51 WAS 283 ( up 26)

TRAFFORD 328 // 363 // DOWN 35 WAS 274 (up 54)

SALFORD 330 // 403 // DOWN 73 WAS 391 (down 61)

STOCKPORT 357 // 357 // LEVEL WAS 295 (up 62)

TAMESIDE 416 // 396 // UP 20 WAS 270 (Up 146)


Oldham's big drops lately see it take top sot from Bolton.

As you can see Salford, Manchester and Trafford have also turned big numbers around and are falling.

But over the past month Trafford has risen a lot

Tameside is clearly in most trouble well ahead of the rest and up the most across the past month

Stockport and Salford going in opposite direction and Stockport now second worst in GM with only Tameside ahead - though some way ahead.

It is very unusual to see Stockport in this position. It is normally nearer the top if not top as it was earlier in the Summer before Bolton started falling.
 
Gumzy97 said:
Just had a test done.

Came back home yesterday was fine didn’t feel ill had no symptoms. then in the night had a couple of symptoms, sore throat, cough. Then woke up today with blocked nose. Been double vaccinated. Hopefully negative. Get my result back tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Best of luck Gumzy , we need you in full voice at Leicester even if its from your home.
 
I had a pcr test yesterday and tested positive.

Question about isolating times - can I still go to Leicester a week on Saturday?
 
Vaccination halves chances of Long Covid.
www.sciencedaily.com

Double vaccination halves risk of long COVID, study finds

Adults who have received a double vaccination are 47 percent less likely to have long COVID should they contract a COVID-19 infection, according to new research.
www.sciencedaily.com
This on it's own should make anyone go and get jabbed as across the whole population, 4% of cases have Long Covid after 3 months and 1.8% still have it after a year.
Yesterday's cases of 36,596 mean 1,464 would have Long Covid after 3 months and 659 would still have symptoms a year later.
It isn't fun. I had it for 8 months.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Vaccination halves chances of Long Covid.
www.sciencedaily.com

Double vaccination halves risk of long COVID, study finds

Adults who have received a double vaccination are 47 percent less likely to have long COVID should they contract a COVID-19 infection, according to new research.
www.sciencedaily.com
This on it's own should make anyone go and get jabbed as across the whole population, 4% of cases have Long Covid after 3 months and 1.8% still have it after a year.
Yesterday's cases of 36,596 mean 1,464 would have Long Covid after 3 months and 659 would still have symptoms a year later.
It isn't fun. I had it for 8 months.
Click to expand...
Also on the Beeb site .
www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus vaccines cut risk of long Covid, study finds

The study adds to growing evidence that vaccination helps protect against Covid in a number of ways.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
117 M34 said:
I had a pcr test yesterday and tested positive.

Question about isolating times - can I still go to Leicester a week on Saturday?
Click to expand...
No. Its 10 days starting the day after either positive test if asymptomatic or first developing symptoms so that takes you up to midnight on Saturday next week. Wife had same problem last week and missed Arsenal game.
 
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