Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE APP DATA

REGIONS:-

A LOT OF CHANGING ABOUT HERE TODAY!


North West FALLS again to 697 / 929 FROM 719 / 945

NW down into SIXTH place of the 12 regions - lowest place in months

Behind Scotland (now TOP) Yorkshire (now Second), N Ireland (fallen to third) and Wales (fourth). Also now North East overtaken NW into fifth place.



Scotland TOP is UP - on 897 / 1198 FROM 852 / 1145

Yorkshire in second is UP on 846 / 1134 FROM 835 / 1119

N Ireland also falls big - hence the fall down the table - on 523 / 1449 FROM 668 / 1661 - It has been falling like a stone from top a few days ago - much as it has in the real case numbers.

WALES in fourth has fallen too on 727 / 1013 FROM 756 / 1097

And North East now overtaken NW too into fifth up on 624 / 1029.



London has inched up on 589 / 756 FROM 586 / 752 but still in lowest watch zone with only East England lower now in UK BUT UP on 577 / 754 FROM 552/ / 725.

South East has also now FALLEN into the lowest watch zone with these too on 615 / 745 FROM 663 / 798.


North West is just a couple more good days from also falling into the lowest watch zone to join West MIdlands, South West, South East, London and East already there.
 
splinter said:
Be prepared for a rough autumn and winter..vaccination or no vaccination delta going to really kick ass..I do hope im wrong?
Click to expand...

Yea I think you’re wrong tbh

we’ve been open fully for months now and no spike in cases just a bumpy plateau, indicates we’ve reached HIT at least for this time of year.

Still got a decent number of cases each week so we are likely going to overshoot the winter HIT threshold soon as well.

Schools going back will produce a spike in cases as they are the sub population that have the least immunity, but by Nov will probably all have caught it if they’ve not had it already.

Unless there’s some massive change in behaviour to send the R up (not isolating when your ill?) I don’t see any chance of a huge sustained rise like Spring or Winter 2020.
 
ZOE APP DATA

GREATER MANCHESTER:-


Surprise new GM leader Oldham retains top spot.

Oldham is DOWN but still high on 19, 479 FROM 20, 322

Trafford - which lost Pop Score points on Stockport yesterday in the real data for first time in a while climbs on Zoe into second UP onto 17, 501 FROM 12, 626

Stockport is now only third highest DOWN well again on 14, 921 FROM 17, 678 - fourth straight fall here matching its improved real case data in past couple of days.

Rochdale has the biggest jump UP today following neighbour Oldham on 14, 752 - almost catching Stockport - climbing in one day FROM 5921

Wigan in fifth but well DOWN on 13, 890 FROM 16, 421.

Manchester is a surprise still climbing and UP in sixth on 13, 272 FROM 11, 940.

Salford meanwhile stays flat JUST into the upper watch zone DOWN on 10, 179 FROM 10, 970.



The other three boroughs are still in the lower watch zone


Bolton well DOWN on 9944 FROM 13, 059

Tameside UP on 8844 FROM 7929 - though I suspect it is actually well up on these numbers given its real case numbers.

And top of the tree now (and consistent with its current real case performance) is:-

Bury DOWN onto 8517 FROM 9017


Though 8517 is the highest 'low' for GM in some time so it is not all good news.









West Lancashire - the region between Bootle, Formby and Southport in west and Wigan is UP again today on 33, 477 FROM 32, 344 .

The near perpetual high scorers in past 3 months - like Chorley and Preston - are well down (Chorley to 14, 950).


The numbers in the western part of the NW is why GM is faring relatively well and outperforming v the NW as a region at the moment.

Liverpool UP on 13, 313 FROM 11, 478

BUT St Helens DOWN on 28, 103 (FROM 32, 085 - now only just second highest in NW behind West Lancashire).

These areas are creating the most cases currently in this western part of the region.

Cheshire East - which Andy Hinch will be delighted to hear has utterly broken the usual link with Stockport and been falling again on just 6039 - behind all in GM - FROM 7190.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week (never is any on Sunday due to registration closures)

6368 cases - was 7113 last week

14.2% positivity - was 13.5% last week - so cases down a little but this % is slightly up on recent days

719 patients - up 49 on yesterday - was 507 last week

61 ventilated icu - up 3 on yesterday - was 52 last week


THIS HOSPITAL DATA STILL RISING AND WE NEED TO SEE SOME SIGNS OF FLATENNIG SOON THOUGH NOT YET AT DANGER LEVELS WHICH OVER 1000 PATIENTS AND 100 VENTILATED BEDS WOULD BE IMO.
 
WALES DATA

THIS IS FROM FRIDAY ONLY - SAT & SUN COMBINED TOMORROW AS USUAL

3 deaths - was 3 last week

2389 cases - was 2357 last week - pretty flat

10.4% positivity - was around the same last week

322 patients (Fri) - was 264 last Sunday

48 ventilated (Fri) - was 38 last Sunday
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

7 deaths - was 9 last week

1232 cases - was 1225 last week

ALL WE GET AT WEEKENDS BUT VERY FLAT AS YOU CAN SEE
 
So total deaths with England to add are 10.

Last week at this stage it was 12.

That became 61 when England was added later - adding 49 from England. 31 of which were in hospital.
 
And total cases today from the three nations are:- 9989 with England to come

Last week at this stage it was 10, 695

England later added 22, 501 to give a UK total of 33, 196


Yesterday England added 29, 614 to the other nations total of 7964 (no Wales data yesterday as usual Saturday) to total 37, 578

So we will be doing well to see anything under 37K today and could easily be nearer 40K. Though Sunday can be low so fingers crossed.
 
In the Netherlands, for almost a month now, new cases have sat somewhere between 2,900 and 2,000 per day. Never higher never lower. Vaccinations are also plateauing, so Government suggesting all that can be done now to get more adults vaccinated is to apply pressure through the QR pass system.

QR codes also being used more in restaurants and bars to order food and pay for services, so less human contact and fewer waiting staff required. Was already happening but use accelerating in pandemic.
 
Gabriel said:
In the Netherlands, for almost a month now, new cases have sat somewhere between 2,900 and 2,000 per day. Never higher never lower. Vaccinations are also plateauing, so Government suggesting all that can be done now to get more adults vaccinated is to apply pressure through the QR pass system.

QR codes also being used more in restaurants and bars to order food and pay for services, so less human contact and fewer waiting staff required. Was already happening but use accelerating in pandemic.
Click to expand...
the rise of the machines
 
Yet more evidence on why vaccination passports are pointless if evidence of previous infection is also not taken into account.

I am just posting the conclusion of the systematic review of the evidence but the link to the full document is at the bottom of the text.

Conclusions:
There is consistent epidemiologic evidence that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provides substantial immunity to repeat SARS-CoV-2 infection. Prior SARS-CoV-2 infections provide similar protection when compared to vaccination for SARS-CoV-2. Longer follow-up studies are needed to determine how long protection lasts for natural immunity, especially among higher risk groups such as those with chronic medical conditions and those that are immunocompromised. More research is needed to investigate whether disease severity changes the risk of repeat infection. Finally, more research is needed to determine how much protection persists against emerging variants, like the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.27.21262741v1.full-text
 
68 all settings deaths

37, 011 cases - 27, 022 from England - down 2592 from 29, 614 yesterday

And up 4521 from last Sunday's 22, 501


The England week to week case changes over past few days have been:

DOWN 2507 - DOWN 2627 - DOWN 741 - UP 4181 - UP 4496 - UP 4521

Could have been a lot worse.
 
GM AND NORTH WEST NUMBER HIGHLIGHTS

NW DOWN 640 on the day to 3462

NW UP week to week by 356 from 3106

Out of these numbers Greater Manchester had a slightly better than expected split.

On the day DOWN by 346 of that 640 - more than half - which is good for a fall - onto 1152. Lowest score since last Monday.

AND

UP by 125 of the 356 NW rise from 1027 last Sunday. This is around a third of the rise and again lower than expectations for a rise.

In GM there were 5 boroughs sub 100 today. First time in a few days for that.

Only Bolton and Salford were actually DOWN week to week. Everyone else was up.

Apart from Stockport which - again as Zoe predicted - continued its better run and scored exactly the same as last week (130) - 31 down on yesterday.

Manchester up 57 week to week to 223 had the biggest rise with Wigan (up 34) next.

Salford scored just 74 cases (joint least with Bury) and lowest here in some time - also giving Salford the very unusual lowest daily Pop Score rise - just 29 - ahead of Bolton's 31.

Stockport gained another 6 Pop Score points back on Trafford scoring 44 versus Trafford's 50.

All in all a good day for GM and not a bad one for the NW.

And aside from its inability to read Tameside's numbers - which it always under estimates - Zoe has got much better at predicting the numbers.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS


EAST UP BY 335 - BIGGEST RISE TODAY - TO 3009 V 2197 - UP 812 IN WEEK

LONDON UP BY 48 - TO 3641 V 2577 - UP 1064 IN WEEK - BACK ABOVE THE NORTH WEST

SOUTH EAST FALLS BY 274 TO 4407 V 3199 - UP 1208 IN WEEK - BIGGEST WEEK TO WEEK RISE AND HIGHEST REGIONWELL AHEAD OF NORTH WEST

SOUTH WEST FALLS BY 181 TO 3135 V 3003 - UP 132 IN WEEK

EAST MIDLANDS FALLS BY 1 TO 2454 V 2187 - UP 267 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS FALLS BY 1300 TO 2653 V 2527 - UP 126 IN WEEK BIGGEST DAILY FALL BY FAR

NORTH EAST FALLS BY 335 TO 1263 V 893 - UP 370 IN WEEK

YORKSHIRE FALLS BY 718 TO 2381 V 2494 - DOWN 113 IN WEEK - ONLY WEEK TO WEEK FALL


AND

NORTH WEST FALLS BY 640 TO 3462 V 3106 - UP 356 IN WEEK



GREATER MANCHESTER FALLS BY 346 TO 1152 V 1027 - UP 125 IN WEEK

GM AS A PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST CASES

TODAY 33.3% - UP FROM 33.1% LAST WEEK - 33.1% WAS LOWEST EVER GM SCORE THIS SUMMER - TODAY IS THE SECOND LOWEST PERCENTAGE OF THE NORTH WEST
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Yet more evidence on why vaccination passports are pointless if evidence of previous infection is also not taken into account.

I am just posting the conclusion of the systematic review of the evidence but the link to the full document is at the bottom of the text.

Conclusions:
There is consistent epidemiologic evidence that prior SARS-CoV-2 infection provides substantial immunity to repeat SARS-CoV-2 infection. Prior SARS-CoV-2 infections provide similar protection when compared to vaccination for SARS-CoV-2. Longer follow-up studies are needed to determine how long protection lasts for natural immunity, especially among higher risk groups such as those with chronic medical conditions and those that are immunocompromised. More research is needed to investigate whether disease severity changes the risk of repeat infection. Finally, more research is needed to determine how much protection persists against emerging variants, like the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.27.21262741v1.full-text
Click to expand...

Your NHS covid pass is valid for 6 months after a positive PCR test
 
GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


MANCHESTER 223 - DOWN 24 on day & UP 59 wk to wk

Manchester Pop Score up 40 POP SCORE 15, 167 LEAD OF 14 AS THE HIGHEST IN GM


WIGAN 148 - DOWN 17 on day & UP 34 wk to wk. Pop score up 45 today - POP SCORE 14, 107


STOCKPORT 130 - DOWN 31 on day & LEVEL wk to wk Pop Score up 44 today . POP SCORE 11 945 LOWEST IN GM AND JUST MANAGES TO BE LAST ONE STANDING IN 11K CLUB


TAMESIDE 119 - DOWN 56 on day & UP 21 wk to wk - Pop Score up 52 - highest rise in GM today. POP SCORE 13, 237

TRAFFORD 118 - DOWN 20 on day & UP 4 Wk to wk - up by 50 Pop Score points today taking it into the 12K club a day ahead of Stockport. And increasing the gap on SKs lowest GM Pop Score lead to 58 WITH A POP SCORE OF 12, 003.


OLDHAM 90 - DOWN 21 on day & DOWN 29 wk to wk - Pop Score up 38 to be just 14 behind Manchester as highest GM pop score. POP SCORE 15, 153

BOLTON 89 - DOWN 30 on day & UP 24 wk to wk - Bolton Pop Score up 31 but not best in GM today, POP SCORE 14, 393


ROCHDALE 87 - DOWN 37 on day & UP 23 wk to wk - Pop Score up 39 - POP SCORE 14, 644.

BURY 74 - DOWN 7 on day & UP 4 wk to wk - joint best numbers in GM today. Though do not really deserve top spot given its Pop Score. Pop score here up 39 - which takes Bury into the 14K club . POP SCORE 14, 026

SALFORD 74 - DOWN 103 on day & DOWN 15 wk to wk - very low score here and earns top ranking! Pop Score up 29 - lowest in GM today. Very rare for Salford. POP SCORE 14, 810
 
GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Bury 578, Rochdale 608, Oldham 680, Bolton 688, Trafford 816, Salford 894. Wigan 1020 , Tameside 1029, Stockport 1154, Manchester 1628


Manchester increased lead on Stockport - who stand still. Bolton and Salford fall. The rest up.

Wigan's numbers took it over the 1000 weekly cases today.
 
GM WEEKLY POP SCORES


Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)

NB:- These are now versus the week when the population was readjusted so some of the 4 week old Pop scores are artificially low for the next few days on that 4 week old comparison. The other more recent data here is unaffected. And in a few days neither will the 4 week old data be.


BOLTON 239 // 254 // DOWN 15 WAS 168 (up 71)

OLDHAM 260 // 302 // DOWN 42 WAS 307 (down 47)

MANCHESTER 293 // 298 // DOWN 5 WAS 265 (up 28)

ROCHDALE 301 // 274 // UP 27 WAS 202 (Up 99)

BURY 303 // 294 // UP 9 WAS 331 ( Down 28)

WIGAN 309 // 279 // UP 30 WAS 154 (up 155)

SALFORD 341 // 354 // DOWN 13 WAS 191 (Up 150)

TRAFFORD 342 // 333 // UP 9 WAS 279 (up 63)

STOCKPORT 392 // 352 // UP 40 WAS 291 (up 101)

TAMESIDE 453 // 425 // UP 28 WAS 254 (Up 199)


Bolton retake lead at best end of this table as Oldham numbers rise.

Tameside is clearly in most trouble. But Stockport has at least stabilised.

Only 3 boroughs under 300 now but nobody is now rising very fast happily.
 
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