Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

I agree about that caution but do hope the pressure - which will be intense - to 'allow Summer to happen' does not get in the way.

The now month with reduced vaccine should delay the road map by at least another 4 weeks but seems unlikely that will be allowed to happen.

Starting to see some health groups expecting a case surge in mid Summer which I hope proves untrue but if we are not near to 100% vaccinating by then might be.

Reimporting the virus via new variants before all are vaccinated is going to be hard to stop as it is inevitable people will be travelling even if it would be preferable they could not

Still need to tip toe from here as running towards the light risks us falling into the big hole in front of us everyone wants to pretend cannot possibly be there.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

4 deaths - was 4 last week

227 cases - was 297 last week

(rumours of another smaller backlog from January included today but the website has
gone down so I have cobbled this together from various sources)

Weekly Pop 39 - was 41 yesterday and 43 last week.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination update:

1, 320, 188 first doses given - 17, 214 today - was 14. 724 yesterday & 22, 904 last week

378, 795 second doses given - 11, 992 today - was 13, 456 yesterday & 15, 226 last week

 

[SWP's back]

Starting to see some health groups expecting a case surge in mid Summer which I hope proves untrue but if we are not near to 100% vaccinating by then might be.

I doubt it. The U.K. came out of the worst of lock down last summer and cases were on the floor as tends to happen with these things in summer. If there was a similar summer led drop plus most people being vaccinated, I would imagine the numbers will be in double fingers only in July and August.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The U.K. came out of the worst of lock down last summer

There were still very substantial restrictions through the summer, if not called a lockdown, and we had R>1, from a low level of cases, direct from the point where the last restrictions were lifted. Current roadmap has all restrictions lifted June 21st, so very different to last summer. Just how seasonal COVID is still seems to be very unclear. "Somewhat"

The now month with reduced vaccine should delay the road map by at least another 4 weeks but seems unlikely that will be allowed to happen.

I think the vaccine supply is still consistent with the original plan, just no acceleration. Could be wrong.

 

[Healdplace]

Denmark extends the block on using AZ for 3 more weeks.

From my visits there and watching Scandi dramas I thought they were sensible in those parts.

Why even bother taking the 'poison' next month. By then nobody will want it across Europe the way this is going.

Either we are incredibly gullible in the UK or they are incredibly cautious or silly elsewhere.

Utterly baffled by how this is happening. As it is you are never going to be any more sure from yet more trials than the millions and millions of real life ones we have done in the past 4 months in the UK.

This feels like the world is laughing at us taking the dodgy vaccine whilst they sit and watch their elderly folk die.

It is heart breaking.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Denmark extends the block on using AZ for 3 more weeks.

From my visits there and watching Scandi dramas I thought they were sensible in those parts.

Why even bother taking the 'poison' next month. By then nobody will want it across Europe the way this is going.

Either we are incredibly gullible in the UK or they are incredibly cautious or silly elsewhere.

Utterly baffled by how this is happening. As it is you are never going to be any more sure from yet more trials than the millions and millions of real life ones we have done in the past 4 months in the UK.

This feels like the world is laughing at us taking the dodgy vaccine whilst they sit and watch their elderly folk die.

It is heart breaking.

Danish rationale direct from the horse's mouth.

The decision to put vaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca on hold is extended for another three weeks

The Danish Health Authority’s decision to pause the COVID-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca remains in effect because the assessment of the use of the vaccine in the Danish vaccination programme against COVID-19 is still ongoing.

www.sst.dk

Perhaps some of the context to this is that Denmark has a death rate ~5x lower than ours across the whole pandemic and even today has a death rate 5x lower than ours - they're not watching their elderly folk die.

So the risk of side effects might be seen as relatively more important than COVID deaths, which they have very well under control without extra vaccines.

Again, not saying they are right, but trying to understand why they might take a different stance.

 

[Healdplace]

There were still very substantial restrictions through the summer, if not called a lockdown, and we had R>1, from a low level of cases, direct from the point where the last restrictions were lifted. Current roadmap has all restrictions lifted June 21st, so very different to last summer. Just how seasonal COVID is still seems to be very unclear. "Somewhat"



I think the vaccine supply is still consistent with the original plan, just no acceleration. Could be wrong.

Yes, I think it is just that they moved faster through the ages down to 50 than expected so more second doses are due than originally planned and these have to be prioritised over first doses from the supply we do get - thus delaying the speeding up to the under 50s.

But the fact that they are even asking those over 50 now to get a jab booked ASAP as after next week they likely will not be able to in April suggests it is pretty tight on new doses altogether.

 

[Healdplace]

Danish rationale direct from the horse's mouth.

The decision to put vaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca on hold is extended for another three weeks

The Danish Health Authority’s decision to pause the COVID-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca remains in effect because the assessment of the use of the vaccine in the Danish vaccination programme against COVID-19 is still ongoing.

www.sst.dk

Perhaps some of the context to this is that Denmark has a death rate ~5x lower than ours across the whole pandemic and even today has a death rate 5x lower than ours - they're not watching their elderly folk die.

So the risk of side effects might be seen as relatively more important than COVID deaths, which they have very well under control without extra vaccines.

Again, not saying they are right, but trying to understand why they might take a different stance.

I guess so but it reinforces the terrible message.

I bet a large chunk of those in the UK would be turning down AZ now if they had not already had the first one.

More than one person who had it has said to me they are going to ask for the other vaccine on second dose jut to be safe.

I told them I do not think they can.

Mud sticks and then congeals and this lot is starting to stink.

I understand the arguments as most in here do so it will not stop me getting my second dose on Star Wars Day. But it is clearly filtering through to people here who had it and are fine that caution may be wise as so many people urging it cannot be wrong.

 

[Healdplace]

73 England hospital deaths - 16 from the North West.

Last week was 97 and 17.