Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

73 England hospital deaths:

By region: 17 Midlands, 16 North West, 13 NE & Yorkshire, 10 East. 8 South East, 5 London, 4 South West

Most in any trust - Manchester 6.

2 of the 73 were from 2020 - one from March 2020!

By age:

20 - 39 (1) 1.4%

40 - 59 (7) 9.6%

60 - 79 (33) 45.2%

80 PLUS (32) 43.8%

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

10 deaths - was 7 last week

701 cases - was 624 last week

2.4% positivity - was 2.7% last week

310 patients - down 11 on day - was 405 last week

32 ventilated - up 1 on day - was 38 last week.


The ventilated icu data has been rising now for a few days and cases are still a bit high and the deaths too up a bit week to week today. But these were down a lot yesterday. Over the 48 hrs it is 13 this week versus 19 last - so it is easy to be fooled from just looking at isolated numbers.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland Vaccination update:

2, 285, 711 first doses given - 36, 099 today - was 34, 940 yesterday & 41, 184 last week

263, 236 second doses given - 13, 979 today - was 13. 581 yesterday & 10, 221 last week

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Scotland data:

10 deaths - was 7 last week

701 cases - was 624 last week

2.4% positivity - was 2.7% last week

310 patients - down 11 on day - was 405 last week

32 ventilated - up 1 on day - was 38 last week.


The ventilated icu data has been rising now for a few days and cases are still a bit high and the deaths too up a bit week to week today. But these were down a lot yesterday. Over the 48 hrs it is 13 this week versus 19 last - so it is easy to be fooled from just looking at isolated numbers.

I know it's not the most important figure in itself but those case numbers are really stubbornly high. In contrast to Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland seems to be on trend with ROI. I wonder why there's such a difference.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

183 cases - was 169 last week

6.3% positivity - was 9.2% last week

Weekly cases total 1054 - was 1014 yesterday & 1152 last week

6 care home outbreaks - was 9 yesterday & 12 last week

153 patients - down 1 in day - was 167 last week

10 ventilated - down 2 - was 14 last week

 

[Healdplace]

I know it's not the most important figure in itself but those case numbers are really stubbornly high. In contrast to Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland seems to be on trend with ROI. I wonder why there's such a difference.

I am sure it is school testing. It is up a tad but really not risen hugely as the positivity number as low as I can recall shows.

Down week to week despite more cases.

Cases everywhere tend to go up as the mid week goes along and then falls over the weekend.

Scotland's recent Thursdays have been:

769 v 500 v 591 v 624 v 701

This takes in the school return and they have not got back to where we were before that started.

Yes it is up but with many more tests week by week and so a falling positivity

That 769 cases was at 3.7% positivity v today's 2.4%

 

[Healdplace]

Total deaths with England out of hospital to come:- is 87

It was 108 last week then 202 wk before then 227 then 311

 

[Healdplace]

Total cases with England to come :- is 1111

It was 1090 last week then 1009 wk before then 930 then 1362

So yes the cases have trended up.

It is possible we might touch 6000 cases in UK today if England keeps pace.

But Zoe app being constantly down by 1000 or so with their total people with Covid falling every day suggests this might be an artificially elevated number driven by the very high levels of school testing.

 

[Healdplace]

Really now we are comparing apples and oranges.

When doing moderate testing we were mostly finding symptomatic cases now we are so busy testing we are finding many many cases where the person has no idea. Not to mention probably more false positives.

It is a truer picture but case numbers per se are only important to isolate and stop spread.

They have limited impact on the hospital and death numbers. If it is mostly unvaccinated, younger people testing positive as it is.

Hence why cases really are not at present a real indicator of where we are going and the hospital data is much more so.

As there will be Covid cases long into the future and at some point we will have to stop counting them or at least reporting them daily unless there is good reason to do so as people have become accustomed to seeing them as the gude to where we are headed.

And really they are not now to a bigger degree than most people realise.

 

[Healdplace]

As a for instance - the Northern Ireland cases today were 183, up from 139 yesterday and 169 last week.

BUT the positivity rating today was lower than both those two lower case numbers as way more testing today.

And equally importantly when you look at the age ranges of those testing positive - whilst the number of the 7 day total has gone UP by 40 today the key thing is that the age bands have changed too.

There were 130 of 1014 people over 60 who tested positive yesterday

Today there are 40 more cases added to the rolling total but the number over 60 FELL to 127 and the younger ages (under 30) rose day to day.

If the cases in the older more at risk groups are falling really in terms of the course of the pandemic that is the key not the up or down day to day cases.