Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

Deaths 10 (caveat yesterday was a bank holiday in Scotland so this may well be underreporting by some margin)

Cases 2529 at 14.8% positive

895 in Greater Glasgow 388 in Lanarkshire and 322 in Lothian.

In hospital there are 1347 patients - a huge rise of 255 since Christmas

And on ventilator beds 93 - 23 up since last report 4 days ago.

 

[blueparrot]

Regarding the earlier discussion about prevalence of ventilation versus hospital bed occupancy this is a point I have been tracking given the new variant of the virus.

We are expecting any wave now to be less deadly as we were putting too many patients on ventilators as we had no other treatments to offer to save the sickest.

Here is some data as the wave we had in the North West in the autumn was driven by the older versions of the virus as the new one was yet to arrive in any numbers.

But where we are now is driven by the new variant - particularly in London but increasingly so in the NW (at last count pre Christmas NW was 25% new variant and rising London around 70%).

Is the new variant causing patients to become more ill and requiring extra ventilation is the question the data might help answer?

At the peak of the first wave (12 April) there were 18, 974 in hospital in England with Covid. And 2881 on ventilators.

That is 15.2% of all patients ventilated.


In that first wave in the NW in April 3065 were in hospital on 13 April. And 350 on ventilators a day or two later at the most. That is 11.4% of the patients ventilated at peak. Which is well below the England average.

Why did the NW have below average numbers on ventilators from the start?


In autumn when there was a second wave focused in the North West at its peak on 16 Nov there were 3158 in hospital, We briefly went above the numbers in that first wave. But that is till to this day the most ever in hospital in the NW.

Ventilator numbers in that November wave peaked that same week at 280. So this was an 8.9% maximum on ventilators - a modest but clear reduction of the proportion ventilated from the 11.4% in April.

In London during the first wave they peaked at 5198 patients on 8 April (London was about a week ahead of the NW in the first wave as it started in the south and spread north much as this new variant seems to have done in December).

Ventilators peaked in London two days later at 1057 - making the maximum % on ventilators there 20.3%.

So there were significantly more put on ventilators in London than the NW during the first wave.

A fact I have not seen mentioned by anyone nor explained. It does seem odd.


Currently in London there were (yesterday) 6733 in hospital - well over the first wave peak patient number already as you can see.

And on ventilators right now there are 814. That is 243 below the peak number in April but rising fast.

As there are more patients but fewer on ventilators this brings a percentage of 12. 1% in London right now- well below the 20.3% in April.


The current situation in the NW as of yesterday is 223 on ventilators from 2812 patients which is 7.9%

To summarise:-


So the old strain created in London a peak ventilated number in April of 20.3% and the new one right now is at 12.1% - significantly less even given it is driven by the more virulent strain,

The old strain in the NW created in two waves 11,4 % in April and 8.9% in November. Currently the numbers in the NW ion ventilators are 7.9% of patients. Lower still.

So that certainly seems to suggest the new strain is not proving more dangerous. Just far easier to spread.



The England wide situation right now is 26, 626 in hospital and 2310 on ventilators - which is 8.7%. Similar to the NW in the November wave.

Scottish figures seem to show for similar hospital figure a lot less ventilated,than April.

On 20 April, there were 1,520 patients in hospital with Covid. This had risen rapidly from 329 on the day of the lockdown started a month earlier.

Today's figure is 1,347 - up 255 from the figure a week ago.

There are now 93 people in Intensive Care Units in Scotland being treated for Covid - which is up 28 on a week ago.

The number of people in intensive care is still significantly lower than the April peak (208).

 

[feelymcfeel]

Regarding the earlier discussion about prevalence of ventilation versus hospital bed occupancy this is a point I have been tracking given the new variant of the virus.

We are expecting any wave now to be less deadly as we were putting too many patients on ventilators as we had no other treatments to offer to save the sickest.

Here is some data as the wave we had in the North West in the autumn was driven by the older versions of the virus as the new one was yet to arrive in any numbers.

But where we are now is driven by the new variant - particularly in London but increasingly so in the NW (at last count pre Christmas NW was 25% new variant and rising London around 70%).

Is the new variant causing patients to become more ill and requiring extra ventilation is the question the data might help answer?

At the peak of the first wave (12 April) there were 18, 974 in hospital in England with Covid. And 2881 on ventilators.

That is 15.2% of all patients ventilated.


In that first wave in the NW in April 3065 were in hospital on 13 April. And 350 on ventilators a day or two later at the most. That is 11.4% of the patients ventilated at peak. Which is well below the England average.

Why did the NW have below average numbers on ventilators from the start?


In autumn when there was a second wave focused in the North West at its peak on 16 Nov there were 3158 in hospital, We briefly went above the numbers in that first wave. But that is till to this day the most ever in hospital in the NW.

Ventilator numbers in that November wave peaked that same week at 280. So this was an 8.9% maximum on ventilators - a modest but clear reduction of the proportion ventilated from the 11.4% in April.

In London during the first wave they peaked at 5198 patients on 8 April (London was about a week ahead of the NW in the first wave as it started in the south and spread north much as this new variant seems to have done in December).

Ventilators peaked in London two days later at 1057 - making the maximum % on ventilators there 20.3%.

So there were significantly more put on ventilators in London than the NW during the first wave.

A fact I have not seen mentioned by anyone nor explained. It does seem odd.


Currently in London there were (yesterday) 6733 in hospital - well over the first wave peak patient number already as you can see.

And on ventilators right now there are 814. That is 243 below the peak number in April but rising fast.

As there are more patients but fewer on ventilators this brings a percentage of 12. 1% in London right now- well below the 20.3% in April.


The current situation in the NW as of yesterday is 223 on ventilators from 2812 patients which is 7.9%

To summarise:-


So the old strain created in London a peak ventilated number in April of 20.3% and the new one right now is at 12.1% - significantly less even given it is driven by the more virulent strain,

The old strain in the NW created in two waves 11,4 % in April and 8.9% in November. Currently the numbers in the NW ion ventilators are 7.9% of patients. Lower still.

So that certainly seems to suggest the new strain is not proving more dangerous. Just far easier to spread.



The England wide situation right now is 26, 626 in hospital and 2310 on ventilators - which is 8.7%. Similar to the NW in the November wave.

Which if you think about it, makes absolute sense from an evolutionary stand point. It's in a viruses best interest surely to infect more people but make sure those people are less likely to die and more likely to pass the virus on.

 

[Marvin]

This patient was originally infected with a Spanish strain brought in after the lifting of the first lockdown, I believe.

Thanks. I've read the accounts in blogs, and seen references to papers but I've not read the details. I sounds like a sad story but his family have allowed it to be told so that medical people get some insight into the consequences of treatments. I remember in the Summer being excited by these medical treatments thinking this was the way out and they are but they provide a selection pressure.

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon says that there are now 50% of cases in Scotland caused by the new variant.

 

[Healdplace]

Scottish figures seem to show for similar hospital figure a lot less ventilated,than April.

On 20 April, there were 1,520 patients in hospital with Covid. This had risen rapidly from 329 on the day of the lockdown started a month earlier.

Today's figure is 1,347 - up 255 from the figure a week ago.

There are now 93 people in Intensive Care Units in Scotland being treated for Covid - which is up 28 on a week ago.

The number of people in intensive care is still significantly lower than the April peak (208).

Yes - thank you - that all makes sense.

I did not try to calculate the Scottish data as they have changed the way they record patients and ventilated patients several times during the pandemic making it hard to be sure you are not looking at how many oranges there are today versus how many apples there were 6 months ago.

Not a problem with the past few months data since they last made a major change but less clear how the adjustments changed the older data. When they introduced it patient numbers fell from hundreds one day to about 40 the next and Nicola Sturgeon warned in her briefing about comparisons not being exact from then on.

England has done this too and altered definitions of Covid patients and updated all the past data as well as the current so I expect Scotland did too with their modifications eventually.

 

[Len Rum]

Fucking hell - are you ok??

I'm ok mate.
Criticism where it's due and credit where it's due.
Also I won't be measuring vaccine rollout performance against the mid Feb date given by BoJo.
I regard it as an aspiration and will be pleased if we get close to it.

 

[Marvin]

Which if you think about it, makes absolute sense from an evolutionary stand point. It's in a viruses best interest surely to infect more people but make sure those people are less likely to die and more likely to pass the virus on.

The tendency will be for viruses to evolve into a more contagious but less harmful form as the strains which have these charcteristics statistically grow faster but mutation is a chance event in of itself and could lead to more virulent strains as well. We haven't seen thay yet, and hopefully we will not do so.

I hope that PHE or some data provider is going to do some analysis of hospitalisation by age group, or new infection by age group. I heard last night that we had vaccinated 20% of the over 80s population and that figure is going to surge soon. Vaccination of the elderly should in a relatively short period of time reduce the pressure on the health service. This should be the first signs we look for.

I've been looking at Russia every morning and I note that their new cases have dropped. They have vaccinated a lot of people but focused on younger people. Whether the fall will be sustained is too soon to say and whether it relates to vacccination is also difficult to say but the events are coincident. I don't think they have the variant yet.

 

[Healdplace]

Which if you think about it, makes absolute sense from an evolutionary stand point. It's in a viruses best interest surely to infect more people but make sure those people are less likely to die and more likely to pass the virus on.

Yes I agree that is what you would expect. A virus gains nothing from killing off an easy host. There tends to be an eventual equilibrium over time between how easy to catch and how deadly a virus is. Probably a natural balance in the evolution of these things.

 

[Marvin]

What would really encourage vaccination worldwide is if the NHS can produce a graphic in a fortnight's time showing to the world that UK hospitalisations of over 80s have plunged. I really hope to see that. Vaccine uptake is critical.