Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

Good points Tim. I'm not clued up on the inner workings of the NHS and whether 3 million a week is a realistic figure but just to take an example, my boss's wife is administering the vaccine starting from today. However, she was effectively sat around for the previous few days doing nothing despite saying she was available and was prepared to put in extra hours to do it as well. From what I can gather, it wasn't a supply issue either that was preventing her from starting vaccinating sooner.

Thanks Simon. I think it will take a couple of weeks to really gear up. The last thing we need is another shit show like the Test and Trace fiasco, with people employed to twiddle their thumbs.

 

[Pedestrian]

I know, I think you've seen me write " some GP surgeries" and thought I meant "all GP surgeries".

GPs forced to rethink COVID-19 vaccine plans as 15-minute wait rules out some sites

GPs have been forced into an 11th-hour overhaul of plans to deliver COVID-19 vaccines after the MHRA ruled that all patients given the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine must be observed for 15 minutes.

www.gponline.com

‘The main reason GP offices can’t do the vaccine’ is what I based my reply on.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

The Kent variant is thought to have formed in an immune-compromised patient who was given very extended convalascent plasma treatment. I think it started to circulate back in September 2020.

Exponential growth from very low levels i.e. a handful of cases is at first slow.

This patient was originally infected with a Spanish strain brought in after the lifting of the first lockdown, I believe.

 

[worsleyweb]

Putting aside the shenanigans of the last 24 hours we now have to get the vaccine rolled out ASAP.
I read this morning we are way ahead of other European countries in doing this.
There are some risks in going first but they are definitely worth taking and as a critic so far of the Government's handling of the pandemic it is only right that they should be given credit for getting the vaccination show on the road.

Fucking hell - are you ok??

 

[trumpton]

anyone on here in the hospitality indsutry? pubs etc?

walked past one of my locals that been shut since October or whenever it was, and i wondered what all the staff are doing - are pubs/hospitality staff still on a furlough payment? if so, are you bored out of your minds?!

I work in hospitality.

Managers are going into the business infrequently for admin tasks, video calls etc.

Pubs/restaurants can open for takeaways only, my place isn't as who wants a takeaway steak!

Yes, I'm bored shitless. I tend to go into work once a fortnight just for a change of scenery and to dispose of any items that are out of date.

Yes, we are on furlough. Some waiters/waitresses struggling as they rely on their tips to survive.

 

[M18CTID]

Thanks Simon. I think it will take a couple of weeks to really gear up. The last thing we need is another shit show like the Test and Trace fiasco, with people employed to twiddle their thumbs.

Yeah, true enough mate, and I'm sure it's just a temporary issue. I'm expecting a huge upscale in numbers of jabs over the next couple of weeks. His wife reckons her team of 3 can get through 200 vaccinations today - not a huge number but it all adds up, and if you mutiply that by a few hundred (as I'm guessing there's at least that many sites across the UK that are now up and running), that's 60,000 a day and almost half a million a week already (supplies permitting). Of course, that could even be a conservative figure.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

The Kent variant is thought to have formed in an immune-compromised patient who was given very extended convalascent plasma treatment. I think it started to circulate back in September 2020.

Exponential growth from very low levels i.e. a handful of cases is at first slow.

This makes sense, as does the other replies. It's kinda dejecting that of all the countries in the world, it would take off here of all places. Not that I'd wish it on anybody else, it is what it is, but dejecting nonetheless. I suppose that's a byproduct of both luck and poor handling of case numbers which has allowed it to manifest.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Heard it all this morning. The reasons the virus is spreading. Mrs Q is well in with the local Methodist chapel and she just spent over an hour on zoom with them discussing how they can keep the chapel open. Doors open, no singing, hot water to wash hands!! What part of ‘stay at home’ didn’t they understand??

She is also the coordinator for the village library and Lincolnshire Libraries have contacted her to say that they want our library to stay open!! They think that it is an ’essential’ service. Mrs Q has told them to go take a hike as most of the volunteers are well over 60.

Is it any wonder the virus spreads.

 

[Blue Maverick]

I have now frankly had enough of all this, I will be putting my name forward to issue vaccines as soon as possible, my daughter who is 8 years old was in tears this morning, this incompetent government has to be held accountable after this, they are chasing fires and that’s not the way you put them out. Why the fuck in the last 9 months have the not done any forward planning, they knew when a vaccine came along they would need tens of thousands of people to give these injections, they had all this time to train people so when the time came they could just be called up to do it.
The military now has to take centre stage on this just for their organisational skills, take it away from the dithering civilians and get this fucking done, oh and any twat braking rules now gets sent down for me and named and shamed in the press, the time for pussy footing about had to end I’m sick to fucking death of it.
To top all this off I had to do Just Dance 2020 with my 8 year old as apart of her home schooling routine for exercise, I’m 51 for fucks sake!

 

[Healdplace]

Regarding the earlier discussion about prevalence of ventilation versus hospital bed occupancy this is a point I have been tracking given the new variant of the virus.

We are expecting any wave now to be less deadly as we were putting too many patients on ventilators as we had no other treatments to offer to save the sickest.

Here is some data as the wave we had in the North West in the autumn was driven by the older versions of the virus as the new one was yet to arrive in any numbers.

But where we are now is driven by the new variant - particularly in London but increasingly so in the NW (at last count pre Christmas NW was 25% new variant and rising London around 70%).

Is the new variant causing patients to become more ill and requiring extra ventilation is the question the data might help answer?

At the peak of the first wave (12 April) there were 18, 974 in hospital in England with Covid. And 2881 on ventilators.

That is 15.2% of all patients ventilated.


In that first wave in the NW in April 3065 were in hospital on 13 April. And 350 on ventilators a day or two later at the most. That is 11.4% of the patients ventilated at peak. Which is well below the England average.

Why did the NW have below average numbers on ventilators from the start?


In autumn when there was a second wave focused in the North West at its peak on 16 Nov there were 3158 in hospital, We briefly went above the numbers in that first wave. But that is still (for now) the most ever in hospital in the NW. But the NW is rising again so possibly not for long.

Ventilator numbers in that November wave peaked that same week at 280. So this was an 8.9% maximum on ventilators - a modest but clear reduction of the proportion ventilated from the 11.4% in April.

In London during the first wave they peaked at 5198 patients on 8 April (London was about a week ahead of the NW in the first wave as it started in the south and spread north much as this new variant seems to have done in December).

Ventilators peaked in London two days later at 1057 - making the maximum % on ventilators there 20.3%.

So there were significantly more put on ventilators in London than the NW during the first wave.

A fact I have not seen mentioned by anyone nor explained. It does seem odd.


Currently in London there were (yesterday) 6733 in hospital - well over the first wave peak patient number already as you can see.

And on ventilators right now there are 814. That is 243 below the peak number in April but rising fast.

As there are more patients but fewer on ventilators this brings a percentage of 12. 1% in London right now- well below the 20.3% in April.


The current situation in the NW as of yesterday is 223 on ventilators from 2812 patients which is 7.9%

To summarise:-


So the old strain created in London a peak ventilated number in April of 20.3% and the new one right now is at 12.1% - significantly less even given it is driven by the more virulent strain,

The old strain in the NW created in two waves 11,4 % ventilated in April and 8.9% in November. Currently the numbers in the NW on ventilators are 7.9% of patients. Lower still.

So that certainly seems to suggest the new strain is not proving more dangerous. Just far easier to spread.



The England wide situation right now is 26, 626 in hospital and 2310 on ventilators - which is 8.7%. Similar to the NW in the November wave.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

Deaths 10 (caveat yesterday was a bank holiday in Scotland so this may well be underreporting by some margin)

Cases 2529 at 14.8% positive

895 in Greater Glasgow 388 in Lanarkshire and 322 in Lothian.

In hospital there are 1347 patients - a huge rise of 255 since Christmas

And on ventilator beds 93 - 23 up since last report 4 days ago.

 

[blueparrot]

Regarding the earlier discussion about prevalence of ventilation versus hospital bed occupancy this is a point I have been tracking given the new variant of the virus.

We are expecting any wave now to be less deadly as we were putting too many patients on ventilators as we had no other treatments to offer to save the sickest.

Here is some data as the wave we had in the North West in the autumn was driven by the older versions of the virus as the new one was yet to arrive in any numbers.

But where we are now is driven by the new variant - particularly in London but increasingly so in the NW (at last count pre Christmas NW was 25% new variant and rising London around 70%).

Is the new variant causing patients to become more ill and requiring extra ventilation is the question the data might help answer?

At the peak of the first wave (12 April) there were 18, 974 in hospital in England with Covid. And 2881 on ventilators.

That is 15.2% of all patients ventilated.


In that first wave in the NW in April 3065 were in hospital on 13 April. And 350 on ventilators a day or two later at the most. That is 11.4% of the patients ventilated at peak. Which is well below the England average.

Why did the NW have below average numbers on ventilators from the start?


In autumn when there was a second wave focused in the North West at its peak on 16 Nov there were 3158 in hospital, We briefly went above the numbers in that first wave. But that is till to this day the most ever in hospital in the NW.

Ventilator numbers in that November wave peaked that same week at 280. So this was an 8.9% maximum on ventilators - a modest but clear reduction of the proportion ventilated from the 11.4% in April.

In London during the first wave they peaked at 5198 patients on 8 April (London was about a week ahead of the NW in the first wave as it started in the south and spread north much as this new variant seems to have done in December).

Ventilators peaked in London two days later at 1057 - making the maximum % on ventilators there 20.3%.

So there were significantly more put on ventilators in London than the NW during the first wave.

A fact I have not seen mentioned by anyone nor explained. It does seem odd.


Currently in London there were (yesterday) 6733 in hospital - well over the first wave peak patient number already as you can see.

And on ventilators right now there are 814. That is 243 below the peak number in April but rising fast.

As there are more patients but fewer on ventilators this brings a percentage of 12. 1% in London right now- well below the 20.3% in April.


The current situation in the NW as of yesterday is 223 on ventilators from 2812 patients which is 7.9%

To summarise:-


So the old strain created in London a peak ventilated number in April of 20.3% and the new one right now is at 12.1% - significantly less even given it is driven by the more virulent strain,

The old strain in the NW created in two waves 11,4 % in April and 8.9% in November. Currently the numbers in the NW ion ventilators are 7.9% of patients. Lower still.

So that certainly seems to suggest the new strain is not proving more dangerous. Just far easier to spread.



The England wide situation right now is 26, 626 in hospital and 2310 on ventilators - which is 8.7%. Similar to the NW in the November wave.

Scottish figures seem to show for similar hospital figure a lot less ventilated,than April.

On 20 April, there were 1,520 patients in hospital with Covid. This had risen rapidly from 329 on the day of the lockdown started a month earlier.

Today's figure is 1,347 - up 255 from the figure a week ago.

There are now 93 people in Intensive Care Units in Scotland being treated for Covid - which is up 28 on a week ago.

The number of people in intensive care is still significantly lower than the April peak (208).

 

[feelymcfeel]

Regarding the earlier discussion about prevalence of ventilation versus hospital bed occupancy this is a point I have been tracking given the new variant of the virus.

We are expecting any wave now to be less deadly as we were putting too many patients on ventilators as we had no other treatments to offer to save the sickest.

Here is some data as the wave we had in the North West in the autumn was driven by the older versions of the virus as the new one was yet to arrive in any numbers.

But where we are now is driven by the new variant - particularly in London but increasingly so in the NW (at last count pre Christmas NW was 25% new variant and rising London around 70%).

Is the new variant causing patients to become more ill and requiring extra ventilation is the question the data might help answer?

At the peak of the first wave (12 April) there were 18, 974 in hospital in England with Covid. And 2881 on ventilators.

That is 15.2% of all patients ventilated.


In that first wave in the NW in April 3065 were in hospital on 13 April. And 350 on ventilators a day or two later at the most. That is 11.4% of the patients ventilated at peak. Which is well below the England average.

Why did the NW have below average numbers on ventilators from the start?


In autumn when there was a second wave focused in the North West at its peak on 16 Nov there were 3158 in hospital, We briefly went above the numbers in that first wave. But that is till to this day the most ever in hospital in the NW.

Ventilator numbers in that November wave peaked that same week at 280. So this was an 8.9% maximum on ventilators - a modest but clear reduction of the proportion ventilated from the 11.4% in April.

In London during the first wave they peaked at 5198 patients on 8 April (London was about a week ahead of the NW in the first wave as it started in the south and spread north much as this new variant seems to have done in December).

Ventilators peaked in London two days later at 1057 - making the maximum % on ventilators there 20.3%.

So there were significantly more put on ventilators in London than the NW during the first wave.

A fact I have not seen mentioned by anyone nor explained. It does seem odd.


Currently in London there were (yesterday) 6733 in hospital - well over the first wave peak patient number already as you can see.

And on ventilators right now there are 814. That is 243 below the peak number in April but rising fast.

As there are more patients but fewer on ventilators this brings a percentage of 12. 1% in London right now- well below the 20.3% in April.


The current situation in the NW as of yesterday is 223 on ventilators from 2812 patients which is 7.9%

To summarise:-


So the old strain created in London a peak ventilated number in April of 20.3% and the new one right now is at 12.1% - significantly less even given it is driven by the more virulent strain,

The old strain in the NW created in two waves 11,4 % in April and 8.9% in November. Currently the numbers in the NW ion ventilators are 7.9% of patients. Lower still.

So that certainly seems to suggest the new strain is not proving more dangerous. Just far easier to spread.



The England wide situation right now is 26, 626 in hospital and 2310 on ventilators - which is 8.7%. Similar to the NW in the November wave.

Which if you think about it, makes absolute sense from an evolutionary stand point. It's in a viruses best interest surely to infect more people but make sure those people are less likely to die and more likely to pass the virus on.

 

[Marvin]

This patient was originally infected with a Spanish strain brought in after the lifting of the first lockdown, I believe.

Thanks. I've read the accounts in blogs, and seen references to papers but I've not read the details. I sounds like a sad story but his family have allowed it to be told so that medical people get some insight into the consequences of treatments. I remember in the Summer being excited by these medical treatments thinking this was the way out and they are but they provide a selection pressure.

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon says that there are now 50% of cases in Scotland caused by the new variant.

 

[Healdplace]

Scottish figures seem to show for similar hospital figure a lot less ventilated,than April.

On 20 April, there were 1,520 patients in hospital with Covid. This had risen rapidly from 329 on the day of the lockdown started a month earlier.

Today's figure is 1,347 - up 255 from the figure a week ago.

There are now 93 people in Intensive Care Units in Scotland being treated for Covid - which is up 28 on a week ago.

The number of people in intensive care is still significantly lower than the April peak (208).

Yes - thank you - that all makes sense.

I did not try to calculate the Scottish data as they have changed the way they record patients and ventilated patients several times during the pandemic making it hard to be sure you are not looking at how many oranges there are today versus how many apples there were 6 months ago.

Not a problem with the past few months data since they last made a major change but less clear how the adjustments changed the older data. When they introduced it patient numbers fell from hundreds one day to about 40 the next and Nicola Sturgeon warned in her briefing about comparisons not being exact from then on.

England has done this too and altered definitions of Covid patients and updated all the past data as well as the current so I expect Scotland did too with their modifications eventually.

 

[Len Rum]

Fucking hell - are you ok??

I'm ok mate.
Criticism where it's due and credit where it's due.
Also I won't be measuring vaccine rollout performance against the mid Feb date given by BoJo.
I regard it as an aspiration and will be pleased if we get close to it.

 

[Marvin]

Which if you think about it, makes absolute sense from an evolutionary stand point. It's in a viruses best interest surely to infect more people but make sure those people are less likely to die and more likely to pass the virus on.

The tendency will be for viruses to evolve into a more contagious but less harmful form as the strains which have these charcteristics statistically grow faster but mutation is a chance event in of itself and could lead to more virulent strains as well. We haven't seen thay yet, and hopefully we will not do so.

I hope that PHE or some data provider is going to do some analysis of hospitalisation by age group, or new infection by age group. I heard last night that we had vaccinated 20% of the over 80s population and that figure is going to surge soon. Vaccination of the elderly should in a relatively short period of time reduce the pressure on the health service. This should be the first signs we look for.

I've been looking at Russia every morning and I note that their new cases have dropped. They have vaccinated a lot of people but focused on younger people. Whether the fall will be sustained is too soon to say and whether it relates to vacccination is also difficult to say but the events are coincident. I don't think they have the variant yet.

 

[Healdplace]

Which if you think about it, makes absolute sense from an evolutionary stand point. It's in a viruses best interest surely to infect more people but make sure those people are less likely to die and more likely to pass the virus on.

Yes I agree that is what you would expect. A virus gains nothing from killing off an easy host. There tends to be an eventual equilibrium over time between how easy to catch and how deadly a virus is. Probably a natural balance in the evolution of these things.

 

[Marvin]

What would really encourage vaccination worldwide is if the NHS can produce a graphic in a fortnight's time showing to the world that UK hospitalisations of over 80s have plunged. I really hope to see that. Vaccine uptake is critical.