Coronavirus (2021) thread

Healdplace

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12 May 2013
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10,171
Remarkably despite the UK rise the North West had its lowest score in 9 months today!

Down 134 to just 254. It was 546 seven days ago.

It was below Yorkshire as usual - which went up quite a lot to 609.

But also behind South East on 321 London on 291 and East Midlands on 289.

Have to feel a little suspicious about this as that is certainly unusual.

We will see in coming days I guess if there was a glitch and backlog coming perhaps.
 

Healdplace

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12 May 2013
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10,171
Greater Manchester numbers today are stunning.

Total just 138. Lowest since mid Summer. Down 54 on day and 176 week to week.

If this is not a glitch of some sort then this is excellent news and the best GM numbers in a long time but in truth not even as good as it might have been as a % of the 134 NW fall.

It is well under half so its % share of the region goes UP to 54.3%

But no quibbles in the circumstances.

Manchester top scores on its lowest number since July - just 25 cases! Down 29 wk to wk.

Wigan second on 23 only 2 behind. Exactly same as yesterday and just 1 down on last week.

Bolton has 18 - down 10 in the week.

Salford up to 16 - down 5 in the week.

Rochdale one fewer on 15 - 8 down in the week.

Oldham has just 13 cases - a whopping 27 down on the week.

Bury the only other borough in double figures - just - on 10 - six down on the week.

So there are three boroughs in single figures:

Trafford clocks up 8 - which is 9 down on last week.

Stockport on 7 is at it lowest number this year and for most of the second half of last year. A 24 fall week to week.

And the best score goes to Tameside that incredibly has just 3 cases. Down 14 in the week and lowest GM score in ages.

The daily pop score of Tameside rose by just 2 - lowest daily rise in GM in a long time. Every single GM borough had a single figure daily Pop Score rise - the highest just 7. First time in ages that was true

You can see why I am a little suspicious of such good data but if it holds up it is really good news.

Especially on a day that England cases went up.
 
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BlueAnorak

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31 Oct 2010
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18,185
It has dented confidence but this is where calm explanations are needed in the media. Many women under thirty will take the contraceptive pill every single day and not realise the risk of blood clots from that are 100x higher. Even common everyday tablets like Ibuprofen carry multiple potential complications.

COVID in itself also carries a heightened risk of blood clots. Clots are seen in 10% of infected moderately/severely ill people and in 50% of those who end up in an ICU. No matter what, the benefits of getting the AZ vaccine far outweighs the very rare risks that occur irrespective of your age.

However, it is right that the vaccine has been paused in the under 30's because there is no reason whatsoever to take a risk (no matter how small) on a vaccine for a disease that is currently not prevalent.

So few people have COVID at the moment that it's a fact that no-one whatsoever under 30 will die of COVID but 1 or 2 may die if millions of under 30's were vaccinated today. We therefore have the luxury where we can eliminate both risks because it's impossible that millions of young people will catch COVID overnight and we can prevent the blood clot risk by moving to alternate vaccines.

It's a statistician's game really. I'm 32 and I've had the AZ first dose but what's the clinical difference between me and someone under 30?
Compare the risk for your age group in each of the categories for catching Covid . For your age group it is highly beneficial ill in all categories.
Do you fly abroad for your holidays? Slightly less risky than that. Much less risky than driving a car for a year where you have a 1/20000 chance of death
 

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