Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

BBC just reported now on the variant from London already now being found in the West Midlands.

It is probably moving north as happened last March with the first wave and will soon be near you unfortunately.

IN a free society that is almost impossible to stop.

Especially if it impacts mostly on younger people.

Primarily I imagine as they are out there in greater numbers with little restraint and less likely to be vaccinated versus the ones over 50 who take this a little more seriously as they know the risk increases with age and unlike someone at 21 do not think they are invulnerable as they have probably experienced death around them.

Its been here for over a month. Remember the surge testing in March?

 

[Healdplace]

It doesn't choose to only infect those that aren't protected - it doesn't float down the street and single out the unvaccinated. If there were 10 people in a room it would have a go at all of them, but only have success in some. That's the opposite of homing in.

Evasion by definition indicates a degree of intelligence.

And the meteor comparison isn't a good one - the earth doesn't evade meteor strikes. Something being less likely to happen isn't the same as evasion, or even avoidance.

I never suggested any of these things.

Argue with people saying it is evading anything. I am not.

It is easier to access some than others and words are just words and nobody is seriously inferring some kind of intelligence. I certainly am not.

But humans anthropomorphise threats. The bogey man etc, It is how we deal with it and try to feign control when deep down we know we have little or none.

 

[feelymcfeel]

I never suggested any of these things.

Argue with people saying it is evading anything. I am not.

The first paragraph is literally explaining the concept of homing in and how it doesn't apply here, which were your words.

Then I moved on to meteors, again which you brought up. Maybe i looked at it wrong. Are you suggesting meteors home in on Jupiter?

Also don't think I'm getting at you - I'm not. The work you've put into this thread is really quite incredible. Just the language used across the board throughout this pandemic i think has been at best unhelpful.

 

[Manc in London]

BBC just reported now on the variant from London already now being found in the West Midlands.

It is probably moving north as happened last March with the first wave and will soon be near you unfortunately.

IN a free society that is almost impossible to stop.

Especially if it impacts mostly on younger people.

Primarily I imagine as they are out there in greater numbers with little restraint and less likely to be vaccinated versus the ones over 50 who take this a little more seriously as they know the risk increases with age and unlike someone at 21 do not think they are invulnerable as they have probably experienced death around them.

Did they say it 'moved north'? For example, it is traced to a person in London. I cannot imagine people from London are the only ones who have travelled abroad.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:


2 deaths - was 6 last week

105 cases - was 82 last week

0.8% positivity - was 1.0% last week

124 patients - down 9 on yesterday - was 225 last week

12 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 16 last week

 

[grunge]

The first paragraph is literally explaining the concept of homing in and how it doesn't apply here, which were your words.

Then I moved on to meteors, again which you brought up. Maybe i looked at it wrong. Are you suggesting meteors home in on Jupiter?

You seem to be trying to apply literal logic to terms designed to quickly convey a complex issue.

Do we really, at this point, need to go into minute details of how a virus replicates and spreads? its ben done to death over the last year.

The P1 variant seems to be hitting younger people harder than other variants. the term gets that point across without having to go into the hows and whys. which we wont know yet until its studied properly.

Now its hitting Canada hard we may get those answers. No way Brazil will spend the cash to do the science with the leader they have.

My hunch is just increased viral load, we saw it with the Kent variant over the original, and if the P1 really does have higher r0 then logic dictates that again this would increase viral load more.

 

[Healdplace]

Did they say it 'moved north'? For example, it is traced to a person in London. I cannot imagine people from London are the only ones who have travelled abroad.

As far as I recall - no - they were not implying that just that it was increasing. But these waves have tended to move north or south in the past year. The first wave lingered in parts of the Midlands and North more than down south as lockdown ended when it was more over in the south than it was in the areas that got hit harder later.

This partly was why Leicester and the North West ended up in lockdown from Summer right through autumn when southern areas did not. Until they were then hot hard by the new variant.

So it is something we need to watch.

But you are quite right that it may well have arrived separately there in the same way it probably did down south, Though the general point remains true that if you do not watch carefully both travel into the country and from one part of the country to another these variants have a better chance of spreading beyond what at the moment are just isolated outbreaks. Stopping them from spreading is probably the most important thing we have to do right now

 

[BlueHammer85]

Hans Kristian Gaarder, a prominent conspiracy theorist in Norway, has reportedly died after contracting COVID-19.

The 60-year-old had suggested the virus was "something that will be like a cold or light flu” and claimed restrictions were a means of “camouflaging that the coronavirus does NOT spread from person to person".

He is reported to have hosted two illegal gatherings at his barn in Gran on 26 March and 27 March, less than two weeks before he died on 6 April.

Officials believe Mr Gaarder had been ill for more than a fortnight without seeing a doctor and may have infected others.

While he had not been tested for the virus before his death, an autopsy revealed he was infected.

 

[Marvin]

The study yesterday though on the efficacy of the vaccines in the over 80s is very good news and possibly why these new variants are seemingly homing in on younger people.

Five weeks after just one dose of Pfizer and AZ the over 80s were found to have strong immune responses in 93% Pfizer and 87% AZ - which is well up on what people of that age would be expected to show.

And - perhaps as importantly - triple the T cell presence too - which many seem to think are what stops a Covid infection becoming serious or life threatening. Which is what both these vaccines seem to be doing well given the hospital data.

Just 1972 in hospital with Covid in England and only 322 in N Ireland, Scotland and Wales together (down from over 39,000 in UK in mid/late January) has not happened by magic or just by lockdown. Older people are clearly getting very ill less often.

The most important thing is that the vaccines continue to protect us from serious illness against all strains. I think the authtorities must now know whether vaccinated people are susceptible to serious illness by now.

Test and trace absolutely must know the outcomes for those who were infected. I'm hoping the fact that we haven't heard about this means its good news...the vaccines might not be able to prevent infection by the SA variant but hopefully it still protects against its worst effects. if we can keep a lid on things then we should be able to play catch up in the Autumn.

Peoples patience though will wane. We might find that people just start to accept an increased risk because the social cost is too high. Moot point though as we don' even know the risks at the moment. We just have uncertainty.

 

[splinter]

Hans Kristian Gaarder, a prominent conspiracy theorist in Norway, has reportedly died after contracting COVID-19.

The 60-year-old had suggested the virus was "something that will be like a cold or light flu” and claimed restrictions were a means of “camouflaging that the coronavirus does NOT spread from person to person".

He is reported to have hosted two illegal gatherings at his barn in Gran on 26 March and 27 March, less than two weeks before he died on 6 April.

Officials believe Mr Gaarder had been ill for more than a fortnight without seeing a doctor and may have infected others.

While he had not been tested for the virus before his death, an autopsy revealed he was infected.

Bonkers