Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

HOSPITAL DATA

Summary:

The data below covers the three days of the weekend.

Two of those days had admissions below 100. After the first time in months for such a thing to be reported last Wednesday.

A modest fall over the three days in England patients from 1478 to 1393 in hospital in England tonight.

As usual on Monday there was a small rise after falls on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Monday that Sunday/Monday rise was 41. Today it was just 16.

Ventilators fell slightly on all three days by a total of 13. Last week that fall was just 7.

UK patients now under 1700 from nearly 40,000 in mid January



In the England regions only modest falls and a few up - though there are under 250 in hospital in every region bar London and Midlands now. And Midlands is single figures away.

And North West now under 30 on ventilators in the region. Down from 64 to 28 in 3 weeks.

The NW was last lower in patients on 13 September - ahead of the national picture. They were last lower on ventilators on 15 September - also ahead of the national numbers.




UK total:

THESE NUMBERS SHOW DATA FROM FRIDAY AND THEN TODAY AND THEN VERSUS LAST MONDAY


Patients down to 1650 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 37, 598 in 98 days) :- lowest since 22 September

Ventilators down to 230 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3847 in 92 days) : lowest since 23 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

99 Covid admissions following 124 , 92, 126, 98, 138, 112, 135. in the week before.



PATIENTS:-

Patients down by 85 to 1393 v 1732 last week :- lowest since 22 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 32, 943 in 98 days)

Ventilators: down 13 to 208 v 291 last week :- lowest since 24 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3528 in 92 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 19 to 143 v 176 // down 4 to 14 v 16

London down 42 to 376 v 460 // down 6 to 85 v 106

Midlands down 7 to 252 v 326 // down 6 to 42 v 61

NE & Yorks down 3 to 219 v 295 // down 4 to 28 v 45

North West down 12 to 217 v 281 // down 2 to 26 v 37

South East UP 7 to 123 v 120 // down 1 to 9 v 18

South West down 9 to 63 v 74 // stays at 4 v 8

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[Healdplace]

No problem. had seen the number already, guessed you were auditioning for BBC/Sky headline writer with the shock tactics !

All good news.

Nah - that was last week. Got paid for talking gibberish about nonsense. Not remotely connected with Covid. Once was more than enough.

 

[Healdplace]

On the hospital data above.

You can access the progress of individual trusts now by the way.

I looked at some of those in GM. Happy to look up others on request.


Manchester had 386 in hospital with Covid in the January Peak. Latest data from last week shows it now at 66.
Ventilated patients here peaked at 44 and is now 14

Pennine Acute had 278 patients at the peak and 36 ventilated. It is now 23 patients and 6 ventilated.

Stockport had 193 patients at the peak in January and 18 ventilated. It now has 17 patients and 3 ventilated.

Tameside had 81 patients at the peak and now has 5 and 11 on ventilators at the peak and now has 0.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East UP 90 to 222 v 228 (consistent week to week)

London UP 75 to 262 v 378 (London has improved as the wk to wk shows and went lower than North West today)

South East UP 61 to 225 v 327 (South East stays below the North West and increases gap)

South West UP 30 to 112 v 162


Every southern region down quite a bit week to week despite day to day increases.





MIDLANDS

East UP 67 to 165 v 237 - well down wk to wk.

West UP 13 to 139 v 310 - another big weekly fall here too



Midlands continues to do better than the north.




NORTH

North East UP 19 to 88 v 109 (Still lowest region in England today - 6 sub 100 in the past week.

Yorkshire DOWN 42 to 282 v 452 - A surprisingly good day - only region to fall today and very nearly dumped the North West into top spot after being double its numbers a few days ago.


NORTH WEST UP 90 to 276 v 329 . Joint biggest rise and only just (by 6) below Yorkshire today and ahead of every other region.

But at least down wk to wk and the rise today was not primarily caused by Greater Manchester.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases


130 cases today - up 27 on yesterday - but under the expected share of NW rise of 90 to 276 today.

Takes GM share of NW back under 50% to 47.6% for first time in a week or two.

This is also down week to week from 183 last Monday.

Good day today




Bolton finally conquers Everest and tops the mountain. Up 7 to 26. Not huge but up 6 on last week when many are falling.

Manchester falls to second on just 21 - only up 1 on day and down a whopping 36 week to week. Great for it Pop Score.

Salford stays level at 17 which is up 3 from last wk.

Oldham up by 1 on the day to 13 which s down by 2 on last week.

Trafford rise by 3 to 12 - up 6 wk to wk.

Tameside up by 4 to 11 on the day which is up the same from last week.



The other 4 boroughs made it into single figures.


Rochdale up 5 on the day to 9 - which is a whopping 10 fall week to week.

Wigan one less on 8 - down 1 on the day but a fall of 10 wk to wk cementing its GM Pop Score lead.

Stockport is on 7 - up 2 on the day but a fall of 8 week to week. Ate 3 more into the overall Pop Score gap with Trafford now at 176. Trafford also a week or so at current progress from being the last GM borough to go up into the 7000 club. Currently at 6967.


Which means top spot again goes to :-

Bury - though up 5 on day to 6 - which is a big drop from 16 last week





Weekly cases:-

Bury 46, Rochdale 66, Tameside 67. Wigan 70, Stockport 76. Trafford 88, Oldham 91, Salford 94. Bolton 141, Manchester 234.

 

[117 M34]

Greater Manchester Cases


130 cases today - up 27 on yesterday - but under the expected share of NW rise of 90 to 276 today.

Takes GM share of NW back under 50% to 47.6% for first time in a week or two.

This is also down week to week from 183 last Monday.

Good day today




Bolton finally conquers Everest and tops the mountain. Up 7 to 26. Not huge but up 6 on last week when many are falling.

Manchester falls to second on just 21 - only up 1 on day and down a whopping 36 week to week. Great for it Pop Score.

Salford stays level at 17 which is up 3 from last wk.

Oldham up by 1 on the day to 13 which s down by 2 on last week.

Trafford rise by 3 to 12 - up 6 wk to wk.

Tameside up by 4 to 11 on the day which is up the same from last week.



The other 4 boroughs made it into single figures.


Rochdale up 5 on the day to 9 - which is a whopping 10 fall week to week.

Wigan one less on 8 - down 1 on the day but a fall of 10 wk to wk cementing its GM Pop Score lead.

Stockport is on 7 - up 2 on the day but a fall of 8 week to week. Ate 3 more into the overall Pop Score gap with Trafford now at 176. Trafford also a week or so at current progress from being the last GM borough to go up into the 7000 club. Currently at 6967.


Which means top spot again goes to :-

Bury - though up 5 on day to 6 - which is a big drop from 16 last week





Weekly cases:-

Bury 46, Rochdale 66, Tameside 67. Wigan 70, Stockport 76. Trafford 88, Oldham 91, Salford 94. Bolton 141, Manchester 234.

From your tracking of the data, when do you you think one of the GM boroughs will have a 0 day?

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 49 / 54 / DOWN 5 Testing positive 9.1%

Manchester 42 / 50/ DOWN 8 Testing positive 9.6%

Oldham 39 / 57 DOWN 18 Testing positive 9.7%

Trafford 37 / 25 / UP 12 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 36 / 30 / UP 6 Testing positive 9.0%

Rochdale 29 / 45 / DOWN 16 Testing positive 9.6%

Tameside 27 / 35 DOWN 8 Testing positive 8.1%

Stockport 26 / 25 / UP 1 Testing positive 7.1%

Bury 24 / 33 / DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.0%

Wigan 22 / 33 / DOWN 11 Testing positive 8.8%

 

[Healdplace]

From your tracking of the data, when do you you think one of the GM boroughs will have a 0 day?

It could happen any day. Bury and Tameside have both had 1 in the past couple of weeks and single figures are an everyday event for many boroughs so a zero is likely to occur at one point.

There are several days in the past week or two where the Pop Score of one of the boroughs has not even risen by 1 in the day. Bury have done this. Stockport rose the least today (by 2) and has gone up by 1 a couple of times.

The daily Pop score rises are actually more useful as a guide than case numbers as they factor in the differences in population between large boroughs and smaller ones because obviously 1 case in a place of 100,000 is much the same as 2 in one with 200,000 living there.

So a 0 case is symbolic but not necessarily as meaningful as it might look.

If a big borough like Wigan (326,000 or Stockport (291,000) do it that is a big deal. If Bury (190,000) or Tameside (220,000) do then it is less so. If Manchester (530,000) ever does we might be celebrating big time.

But Bury could do this any time now I suspect.


POP (ulation) scores even this out. And is why Bolton are doing relatively badly top of the tree on 49 whereas Wigan and Stockport are doing well at the other end of the POP table.

Bolton today had 26 cases in its POPulation of 280,000 whereas Wigan and Stockport had just 15 with a combined POPulation of 617,000.

 

[somapop]

Not entirely sure if it helped, but one week on since my jab I've finally been able to go out for a run after 3.5 months of post Covid/long covid health issues.
Felt a skip at lunch during my walk so asked myself whether a run was possible in the evening. Bumped into some runner friends whilst walking the dog after work and told them I was contemplating a 10 min run later.
Ended up as 5K....slow and gentle but listened to my body.

Was obviously a lot cooler today and I've been doing some breathing exercises of late (plus I started taking those vits I posted a while back) but there's every possibility the vaccine has helped the recovery.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Not entirely sure if it helped, but one week on since my jab I've finally been able to go out for a run after 3.5 months of post Covid/long covid health issues.
Felt a skip at lunch during my walk so asked myself whether a run was possible in the evening. Bumped into some runner friends whilst walking the dog after work and told them I was contemplating a 10 min run later.
Ended up as 5K....slow and gentle but listened to my body.

Was obviously a lot cooler today and I've been doing some breathing exercises of late (plus I started taking those vits I posted a while back) but there's every possibility the vaccine has helped the recovery.

Great news mate. Pleased for you, that's excellent progress.