Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

I wish people would just bloody get the vaccine

Me too, but even the simple things in life never seem to be in reality.

There are plenty of people out there pushing misinformation of all sorts on COVID, sometimes in ignorance, sometimes maliciously and sometimes, I think, out of a need to feel important.

Overall, the UK seems to be doing better than almost anywhere on earth in terms of vaccine takeup when offered, so though it can seem bad, it's actually objectively pretty good. Even in Bolton!

 

[Healdplace]

All settings deaths 27

Cases 2144

Pillar 1 & 2 tests

From 846, 002 - about 210K down on yesterday when there were 198 FEWER cases.

It was 2166 last Wednesday from about 711K tests

And 2396 the Wednesday before from about 713 K tests


England only cases today were 1906 - up 247 on yesterday.

Last week it was 1829 and week before 1943.

So pretty flat,

 

[Healdplace]

Unhappily the data today is not great again for Greater Manchester - up significantly day to day and week to week.

North West also had the biggest daily rise today and is at one of its highest numbers in some weeks.

Indeed the NW week to week increase is also quite large at 41 from last Wednesday - and GM has 33 of that rise. Well over expected numbers .

Bolton sadly is way up again to its worst number in many weeks. And the first daily Pop Score rise of 20 in a day seen for a couple of months by any part of GM.

It is not far off double Manchester in cases today - though Manchester is up again today too but only by 4 versus Bolton's 13 on day and 31 week to week - one of the biggest Weekly Pop Score jumps in ages in GM.

Stockport ha lost its best in GM status too as that is showing some smallish worrying signs and rose for the fourth straight day to its highest number in a couple of weeks.

Between these three boroughs the week to week rise is more than the actual rise for all GM was.

So you can definitely see that Bolton and Stockport and Manchester are the problems today.

They are larger boroughs so I suspect that is why and it is a concern this might now spread to the smaller boroughs where numbers will increase more slowly from a low base.

Missing the Bolton spike until too late might become a wider problem now than it needs to have been.

But let us hope this is not an ongoing trend. And someone actually was on top of this and has been acting to try to turn it around from the get go not a week too late when that will inevitably be harder.

The good news is that Trafford seems to be getting better after its travails and so is Oldham whilst Bury and Tameside posted really good low numbers again today.

So there is hope.

 

[splinter]

Unhappily the data today is not great again for Greater Manchester - up significantly day to day and week to week.

North West also had the biggest daily rise today and is at one of its highest numbers in some weeks.

Indeed the NW week to week increase is also quite large at 41 from last Wednesday - and GM has 33 of that rise. Well over expected numbers .

Bolton sadly is way up again to its worst number in many weeks. And the first daily Pop Score rise of 20 in a day seen for a couple of months by an part of GM.

It is not far off double Manchester in cases today - though Manchester is up again today too but only by 4. (though by 11 week to week versus Bolton's 13 on day and 31 week to week - one of the biggest Weekly Pop Score jumps in ages in GM. Close to going over 100 and doubled in six days.

Stockport will have lost its best in GM status too as that is showing some smallish worrying signs and rose for the fourth straight day to its highest number in a couple of weeks.

Between these three boroughs the week to week rise is 51 - which is more than the actual rise for all GM was.

So you can definitely see that Bolton and Stockport and Manchester are the problem today.

They are larger boroughs so I suspect that is why and it is a concern this might now spread to the smaller boroughs where numbers will increase more slowly from a low base.

Missing the Bolton spike until too late might become a wider problem now than it needs to have been.

But let us hope this is not an ongoing trend. And someone actually was on top of this and has been acting to try to turn it around from the get go not a week too late when that will inevitably be harder.

The good news is that Trafford seems to be getting better after its travails and so is Oldham whilst Bury and Tameside posted really good low numbers again today.

So there is hope.

But anyone living there should stay away from Bolton until we know where that is going.

Last went to Bolton late 90s..that was enough

 

[Healdplace]

The hospital data is better news - especially for the North West.

Though ventilators are only down by 1 in England (versus a fall of 8 last Wednesday) patients are down 61 versus 32 last Wednesday.

Moreover nothing increased in the NW today - ventilators stayed at 24 and patients fell by the most of any region - 25 of that 61 fall. So at 178 NW is back to where it was at the start of the holiday weekend and down from 196 last Wednesday. Not up on last Tuesday as it was yesterday.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So there is hope.

Further grounds for hope: every day more people gain immunity through vaccinating.

But better still, the effect on transmission gets more and more powerful with each new vaccination.

When we started, the first 1% vaccinated reduced the R number by 1/100 ie 1%.

But now, 50% of the whole population (incl children) are already immune, so only 50% are still in the pool of susceptible people. So vaccinating 1% of the total is 1/50 = 2% of the remaining susceptible population. And that's assuming young children are equally prone to transmit, which is unlikely.

Bottom line: new vaccinations now make double the impact on the R number they did when we first started.

 

[Healdplace]

Worth remembering that - as with the England hospital deaths being distorted today because of the Bank Holiday on Monday adding a day to the reporting of the catch up numbers - the same may well be true today in case numbers. There could be a short hold over. So we see cases today that in a normal week might have come yesterday or Monday.

After Easter cases rose for a day or two to go over 3000. It has not been up that high since. So if we stay around the numbers seen now that will be progress on 4 weeks ago.

Even in normal weeks cases can tend to rise around mid week and fall off over the weekend. Bank holidays may exacerbate that effect.

 

[hilts]

Me too, but even the simple things in life never seem to be in reality.

There are plenty of people out there pushing misinformation of all sorts on COVID, sometimes in ignorance, sometimes maliciously and sometimes, I think, out of a need to feel important.

Overall, the UK seems to be doing better than almost anywhere on earth in terms of vaccine takeup when offered, so though it can seem bad, it's actually objectively pretty good. Even in Bolton!

Plenty of info outside knob jockeys talking shite. Too many morons in this world. If it was only causing self harm it wouldn’t matter. It’s seems a baffling situation where people complain about lockdowns then don’t get vaccinated or moan that the group they are in seem most affected by the virus and then that same group have the lowest take up.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East DOWN 1 to 157 v 138

London UP 62 to 278 v 257 (London big rise and up week to week now)

South East UP 1 to 195 v 228

South West UP 2 to 129 v 103



Other than London all southern regions all but stood still day to day.




MIDLANDS

East down 7 to 162 v 166 (Another flat number both day to day and week to week)

West UP 42 to 194 v 184 (Pretty level week to week)



NORTH

North East UP 21 to 105 v 89 (Still lowest region in England but up over 100 after week underneath).


Yorkshire UP 42 to 337 v 369 (Remains largest region but NW not far behind).




NORTH WEST UP 72 to 320 v 279.

Biggest increase of the day. And up week to week



GREATER MANCHESTER

Up 22 day to day (out of rise of 72 - which is good and well below expected 50%) but UP 33 week to week - most of the entire week to week NW rise of 41 so well over expectations) .

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases


175 cases today - up 22 on yesterday.

And up 33 from 142 last Wednesday. Most of the entire NW week to week rise of 41




Bolton - had another poor day to stay top of the tree at 57 - that is up 13 on the day and 31 week to week. Biggest weekly increase in any GM borough in ages. Almost alone responsible for GM's bad day and the highest number here in weeks. With a rise of 20 in one day highest GM daily Pop rise in a couple of months and hoisting its Pop Score to the highest in GM In a long time. Way up top out front on its own as the Weekly Pop Score chart below will reveal.


Manchester in contrast up by just 4 to 34 and way behind Bolton though that is up 11 from last week so not that good either.

Stockport - up again - third straight day - by 4 to 18 which is up 9 week to week and highest here in over two weeks. This number was bad enough so that for first time LOST a point on Trafford after two weeks of eating into its big overall Pop Score lead.

Wigan up 7 to 15 - which is at least down 2 wk to wk.

Salford down 4 to 11 which is identical to last wk.

Trafford down 6 on 11 - another big drop of 9 wk to wk. Trafford finally made up 1 on Pop Score points to Stockport. Seem to be getting their numbers under control here hopefully.

Rochdale up 1 on 10 - which is down 2 week to week.


The other 3 boroughs managed single figures today:



Oldham up 3 to 9 on the day - also up 1 wk to wk

Tameside stays on 6 which is down 3 from last week.

And top again - despite being Bolton's neighbour:-


Bury down 6 to just 4- which is down 3 from last week






Weekly total cases:-

Bolton heading towards 300 cases in a week and well beyond Manchester now. Trafford's improvement in past few days pushes it back under 100. Bury and Tameside fighting it out for lowest weekly cases.


Bury 42, Tameside 45, Oldham 67, Stockport 76, Rochdale 77, Wigan 78, Salford 92, Trafford 98, Manchester 197, Bolton 273.