Coronavirus (2021) thread

Healdplace

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England hospital deaths:

13 with 2 from NW - though one is from October so will be excluded.

Last week was 16 with 4 NW - previous weeks 20 / 2 NW - 28 / 5 NW & 34 / 8 NW

The two in the NW were one each in Liverpool and Tameside.

Other regions:- East 5. London 1, Midlands 2, NE & Yorkshire 3, South East 0, South West 0.

The 5 from the East were ALL from East Suffolk hospital

Nowhere else had more than 1 per trust.
 

Healdplace

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Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 1 last week

224 cases - was 175 last week

1.2% positivity - was 1.1% last week

The slight rise in cases in Scotland continues.
 

Healdplace

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Zoe App for the second day running (as I reported yesterday) is UP again on both predicted cases and ongoing symptomatic cases.

Predicted cases do go up and down so are less concerning but have risen steadily from all time lows in the 800s to increases every day - up 58 today to 1148.

The symptomatic cases had been falling every single day since January from around 150,000 at one point and went down last week into the 14,000s. But that fall was noticeably slowing after the Bank Holiday and has now risen two days running. Which it had never done before since January.

Today it is on 15, 275 - a rise of 220 in the day after a rise of 241 yesterday.

Coupled with the hospital data I have been posting in the last few days showing some rises in a number of regions (including the North West) and at best a significant slowing of the fall then this is not yet anything like a crisis and I imagine was expected given the noticeable reducing of restrictions and people going out there and behaving more normally.

But it is a trend we need to watch more carefully now - especially given what is happening in Bolton and other areas where we are seeing rapid spread of new variants.

The NHS data is at a very low level and nothing is going up much. So no panic. But this shows we cannot be complacent or drop all of our guard.
 

ayrshire_blue

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Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 1 last week

224 cases - was 175 last week

1.2% positivity - was 1.1% last week

The slight rise in cases in Scotland continues.

Took Wednesday's figure on the chin given it was a 'catch up day' from missing data from Tuesday's low numbers, but it's not got much better since. Even very very slight rises in % testing positive is noticeable, and sadly the hospital situation is too (all be it at really low numbers for the moment).

I suppose it was always going to be difficult given the reopening as you've since mentioned but with a lot more reopening to come I do wonder how it'll go. Here's hoping not too bad but time will tell.
 

Healdplace

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Took Wednesday's figure on the chin given it was a 'catch up day' from missing data from Tuesday's low numbers, but it's not got much better since. Even very very slight rises in % testing positive is noticeable, and sadly the hospital situation is too (all be it at really low numbers for the moment).

I suppose it was always going to be difficult given the reopening as you've since mentioned but with a lot more reopening to come I do wonder how it'll go. Here's hoping not too bad but time will tell.
Yes I think it was inevitable and I suspect this rapid spreading variant is a factor. But cases are not in of themselves a concern. The NHS data is more of a problem if it continues to tick up the wrong way.

I am hoping what happens is admissions are precautionary and of younger age and so released fairly quickly. They are all not reporting hospital data at weekends now so we will have to wait to Monday to see how these three days go,

The death numbers would be the last to show an impact and right now these are still going the right way.

May 5 in England hospital numbers has 13 deaths to its name after just 3 days reporting. That is the highest day 3 number since 22 April. So I am hoping it is a one day blip as can happen and not the start of a trend.

THAT would be more concerning if deaths ticked upward. But the last 9 day total at five days for England hospital deaths (April 25 - May 3) are right now:

13 - 9 - 9 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 8 - 8 - 8

And May 4 at 4 days is on 7, May 6 at two days is on 4 and yesterday (May 7) added just 1.

So right now the 13 at 3 days for May 5 looks out of place not a trendsetter. It started out with 3 on the first day - and either side of that were six '0's and a 2 - so it is not yet looking like a worry.

The last time even 20 deaths are ascribed to one date even with many days of add ons (beyond where almost nothing now is getting added other than rarely) is 21 on 17 April - three weeks ago.

Apr 24 is an outlier in the opposite direction to the one that seems to have brought 13 at 3 days to May 5

After nearly two weeks April 24 went over the 5 days 0 - 1 - 3 - 6 - 6. And that is it. It is STILL on just 6 deaths.
 
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ayrshire_blue

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Totally concur Healdplace, add to that the slight rising in symptomatic cases on Zoe which has been very accurate throughout this entire pandemic. But symptomatic doesn't necessarily mean hospital requiring/serious, so all we can do i suppose is wait.

On the positive, again only 8 people out of the 224 positive cases in Scotland are aged over 65. Hopefully these figures remain particularly low and as the vaccine programme progresses the 45+ age group is the next one we notice a much declining difference in. That would be a hugely positive sign for the vaccines.
 

Healdplace

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Further to the above someone on Twitter following the data reports NHS triage numbers rose for the first time in a while last week. Up by 13%. Which matches the daily hospital numbers I have posted. But the way last week patients went in one day and then out the next causing 'big' up/down shifts day to day implies there are not many of any serious cases that might translate a week or two on into deaths.

'Big' meaning these numbers were between 10 and 20 at most per region. Often less.


Reason to be cautious and watch what happens. Not to panic imo.
 

Healdplace

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Bolton seems to be falling in Zoe fell again daily and is today down from 341 cases / 1205 estimated (number of active cases reported to the app / estimated number in location per million people inferred) yesterday to just
299 / 1054.

That is good news. Especially as Zoe numbers are going up

Stockport - sadly - is still climbing on Zoe and up from 263 / 909 - yesterday to 282 / 978 today.

At this rate it could become the new Bolton in GM Zoe data as early as tomorrow.

This has not showed in the numbers daily reported as yet but it is a little ominous as Zoe can often be ahead of the curve by a day or two.

Let us hope not.

Manchester also is up quite a bit on Zoe - though not at Stockport level - going from 135 / 247 yesterday to 224 / 411 - which is actually a bigger rise day to day than Stockport.

Other GM boroughs nowhere near this level mostly:

Bury falls again from 16 / 83 to 12 / 66 - clearly top of the GM tree as it is most days.

Oldham falls too from 12 / 51 to 11 / 45

Rochdale is up just a little (and had a noticeable real cases rise yesterday too on 22) going on Zoe from 13 / 59 to 93 / 60

Salford though is falling from 28 / 112 to 24 / 97 today.

Tameside (neighbour to Stockport and second worst) is happily falling from 150 / 669 yesterday on Zoe to
118 / 529 today

Trafford has a nice fall too from 69 / 203 to 36 / 153

As does Wigan from 76 / 234 to 62 / 191 today.


So Stockport seems the concern right now with Manchester also possibly.

The two biggest regions in GM so unfortunately not unexpected.

Rochdale though rising less is showing a possible case rise in the real world data not just Zoe already.
 

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