Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

North West still top region - though it falls by 51 to 329. That is up 79 on last Saturday.


Greater Manchester falls day to day by just 11 of that 51.

But rises week to week by 66 of that 79 increase. So as you can see GM is driving the North West problems.

Bolton is actually a few down on 68 but well up on last week.

Manchester too down day to day on 33 but up significantly week to week.

In fact most places are.

Only Bury is in single figures on just 3 - well ahead of the rest - and even they are up week to week.

The other seven boroughs in the teens. And fairly level with expectations. Rochdale third most on 18.

Will leave it at that today.

Enjoy the match. And do not party too hard afterward!!!

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Would it be fair to say at this stage, that signs of improvement in Bolton might be better good news than the rise in cases in Stockport or elsewhere is negative? As in, the good outweighing the bad with rises in cases almost expected as we open up but importantly the variant situation doesn't completely take off?

Don't know if that even makes sense. Sounds right in my own head ha. Anyway, come on City!

 

[MCFC_ Phil]

My guess is the first one primes the immune system and the second just tops it up, So it is fairly reasonable to presume your body will react to the first jab - which is new and asking it to do things to go on alert - more than the second - which is in effect just like topping up the water tank in the fridge so it lasts a bit longer.

First time might take two or three jugs of water to fill from empty - so more effort - the second only one to top up the partly filled tank - so less strain.

Nice analogy

 

[BlueAnorak]

US vaccination numbers dropping as they pass 46%. It would appear that many of the remaing 54% of the population are not keen.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases


197 cases today - down 11 on yesterday. From 329 North West cases (a fall of 51 from yesterday).

And up 66 from 131 last Saturday. Biggest week to week rise in some time. NW rise wk to wk was 79. So this was most of it. Well over par for GM.




Bolton - had a slightly better day on 68 - that is down 7 on yesterday but up 36 week to week. Pop score rise today 'only' 23 - but again easily the most by any GM borough today. In fact nobody else was more than 8. So Bolton doing 3 times as badly as the second worst in GM (Rochdale) and 20 times as badly as the best (Bury) which rose by just over 1.


Manchester down 6 to 33 but up 14 from last week. So bad for the Pop Score.

Rochdale takes third place once again (and second worst Pop Score to Bolton) falling by 4 on 18 - which is up 4 week to week.

Salford up by 5 to 15 which is up 3 on last wk.

Wigan up 2 to 14 - which is down 1 wk to wk.

Stockport up 5 to 13 which is up 2 week to week. No real sign of the Zoe App rise in Stockport but it is a little so we will see.

Tameside up 4 to do reach 13 which is up 9 on last week. Hurting the Pop Score.

Trafford down 2 to 10 - though down 6 wk to wk. So doing better say by day now.

Oldham down 7 to 10 also - also up 5 wk to wk


And who else up top and the only borough in single figures today:- Bolton's neighbour borough unaffected it seems happily.

Bury down 1 to 3 - which rather maddeningly is very good but still up 1 on last week



Weekly total cases:-

Bolton almost 400 weekly cases nearly double Manchester. The other eight under 100. Just as most have been rising in past few days. Bury easily in the lead.


Bury 42, Tameside 56, Oldham 72, Stockport 81, Trafford 81. Salford 85, Wigan 86, Rochdale 99, Manchester 211, Bolton 390.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 136 / 66 / UP 70 Testing positive 9.2%

Rochdale 45 / 33 / UP 12 Testing positive 9.7%

Manchester 38 / 34 / UP 4 Testing positive 9.7%

Trafford 34 / 46 / DOWN 12 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 32 / 44 / DOWN 12 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 30 / 33 DOWN 3 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 28 / 20 / UP 8 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 27 / 22 / UP 5 Testing positive 8.9%

Tameside 25 / 27 DOWN 2 Testing positive 8.2

Bury 21 / 20 / UP 1 Testing positive 9.1%



Bolton pulling into the stratosphere 91 ahead of anyone else. Long time since I have posted a Weekly Pop Score rising by 70 as it is now. But Stockport as Zoe App predicted is slightly creeping up. Though not yet in any trouble.

In past few days aside from Bolton rising as it has Stockport and Rochdale have steadily risen day by day too. Manchester and Wigan also but to a smaller degree.

Oldham has stayed fairly stable as has Bury - though edging downwards and now best in GM again.

Salford is falling steadily. Tameside fell but is now going up.

But Trafford has been the polar opposite of Bolton being the borough making the most improvement and dropping from up top to about to join the pack of the lowest scorers.

 

[Healdplace]

Would it be fair to say at this stage, that signs of improvement in Bolton might be better good news than the rise in cases in Stockport or elsewhere is negative? As in, the good outweighing the bad with rises in cases almost expected as we open up but importantly the variant situation doesn't completely take off?

Don't know if that even makes sense. Sounds right in my own head ha. Anyway, come on City!

The thing to watch with Bolton is the weekly Pop Score as the table above (that I post daily) shows.

It is still going up and the gap between them and second is growing.

Once that starts to reduce and the score itself fall THAT will be progress.

Stockport numbers are not at present alarming in the actual data. Like most of GM they are up a tad. But the self reported cases on Zoe App are not as yet translating into a jump up in cases there. If we start seeing numbers in the 20s or 30s for Stockport that will be.

The weekly cases is another thing to watch. If they stay under 100 for anywhere they are not in trouble.

 

[Marvin]

They should use the vaccine in Bolton and surrounding areas, or any area where there is community transmission of this variant as it appears to be more transmissible.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Looking at the figures yesterday with 40 clusters of new variant (non Kent) Covid around the country that are the cause of a large number of daily cases i would say the government will have to chance strategy PDQ.
Around the clusters, surge testing (already in play) needs to be accompanied with mass vaccination of ethnic refusnics (with accompanying ethic based publicity drive) and younger people.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

THIS IS FOR FRIDAY ONLY (SAT & SUN DATA IN ONE GO TOMORROW AS NOW USUAL HERE)

0 deaths - was 0 last week

54 cases - was 79 last week

0.3% positivity - was 0.5% last week

Wales seems to be down to Israel like levels in numbers now which is very encouraging as I think they are possibly the second or third most vaccinated nation after Israel which is close to fully vaccinated and out of nearly all restrictions.

On todays figures at least one dose has been given to 61% of the entire Welsh population and about 72% of the adult population (over 16).

The entire UK adult population vaccinated as of last night were at 66.8% who have had at least one dose. And 32.7% have had both.